REPO UP BY 25 BASIS POINTS
RBI today unexpectedly
raised the policy rate by 0.25 per cent as it kept its focus on controlling
inflation, which it felt would be above the expected levels in the current
fiscal. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan in his maiden policy review, however, eased
liquidity though a reduction in the marginal standing facility rate, at which
banks borrow from the central bank, by 0.75 per cent to 9.5 per cent. The repo
rate or the short term lending rate has been increased by 25 basis points to
7.5 per cent from 7.25 per cent with immediate effect. He kept the cash reserve
ratio (CRR), the portion of deposits that banks are required to maintain with
the RBI in cash, unchanged at 4 per cent. At the same time, the RBI reduced the
minimum daily maintenance of CRR from 99 per cent of the requirement to 95 per
cent effective from September 21, a move aimed at inducing liquidity into the
system.
INFLATION MAIN CONCERN
"The need to anchor
inflation and inflation expectations has to be set against the fragile state of
the industrial sector and urban demand. Keeping all this in view, bringing down
inflation to more tolerable levels warrants raising the repo rate by 25 basis
points immediately," Rajan said in the mid-quarter policy review
statement. Rajan said WPI inflation will be higher than initially projected
over the rest of the year in the absence of an appropriate policy response.
What is equally worrisome is that inflation at the retail level, measured by
the CPI, has been high for a number of years, entrenching inflation
expectations at elevated levels and eroding consumer and business confidence,
he said. Stating that economic growth has weakened with continuing sluggishness
in industrial activity and services, the RBI said the pace of infrastructure
project completion is subdued and the start of new projects remains muted.
"Consequently, growth is trailing below potential and the output gap is
widening. Some pick-up is expected on account of the brightening prospects for
agriculture due to kharif output and the upturn in exports," it said.
Rajan said concerns on the current account deficit have been mitigated by steps
taken by the government and the RBI. Also, steps have been taken to improve the
environment for external financing, turning the focus to internal determinants
of the value of the rupee, primarily the fiscal deficit and domestic inflation,
he said. Rajan said the timing and direction of further actions on exceptional
measures will be contingent upon exchange market stability and can be two-way.
"Further actions need not be announced only on policy dates. However, any
further change in the minimum daily maintenance of the CRR is not
contemplated," he added.
"NDF" THE MAIN
CULPRIT
Domestic forex market needs to be deepened and made more competitive as
non-deliverable forwards is sucking out liquidity from the onshore place,
increasing the rupee volatility, RBI Governor Rahuram Rajan said. "To some
extent it (NDF) draws away liquidity from our market. We have to make sure we
provide deep and functioning market so that there is no need to establish a
parallel market outside. There is certainly competition for the Indian market
and competition generally is a good thing. We should try and deepen our markets
to draw in more activity here," the newly appointed Governor said.
The non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market is a foreign exchange derivative
instrument traded over-the-counter currencies that are not freely convertible,
like the rupee, are traded here. RBI has no control over this market, which has
huge volume and operates round-the-clock. Domestic financial institutions are
not allowed to trade in this market.
MARKET REACTS SHAPLY
The benchmark S&P BSE
Sensex fell 383 points today, the most in three weeks, after RBI Governor
Raghuram Rajan unexpectedly raised a key interest rate to combat inflation and
partially rolled back liquidity tightening measures. Realty, bank and auto
stocks fell on concern higher interest rates would make loans more expensive
and reduce their business. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank together contributed more
than 120 points to the Sensex's fall. The 30-share Sensex, which initially
moved in a narrow band, plunged 595 points to 20,051.43 after the rate hike. It
recovered some ground on selective buying by institutional investors to end at
20,263.71, a fall of 382.93 points or 1.85 per cent. The index had declined 651
points on September 3. The broader 50-stock CNX Nifty index on the National
Stock Exchange dipped by 103.45 points, or 1.69 per cent, to 6,012.10. The MCX
Stock Exchange's SX40 index ended at 12,026.41, down 205.69 points.
Interest sensitive stocks
tank
Interest-rate sensitive bank, realty and auto stocks fell up to 11.5 per cent
after RBI unexpectedly raised the policy rate by 0.25 per cent, triggering
all-round selling in the stock market. Realty stocks were the worst hit. Shares
of DLF tanked 11.55 per cent, while HDIL lost 8.47 per cent and Indiabulls Real
Estate slumped 7.01 per cent on the BSE. Out of 13-listed realty stocks, ten ended
the day with losses. Led by the losses in these stocks, the BSE realty index
settled 6.53 per cent lower at 1,287.12, the worst performer among the 13
sectoral indices. Analysts said that rate-sensitive sectors such as realty,
banking and auto were hit hard the most after RBI announcement as a higher cost
of credit would reduce their revenue. Banking stocks also faced the heat, with
Yes Bank plummeting 7.90 per cent, Union Bank (7.89 per cent), PNB (7.31 per
cent), ICICI Bank (4.78 per cent), HDFC Bank (3.63 per cent) and SBI (3.44 per
cent). Following this, the BSE banking index closed the day with 4.18 per cent loss at
12,166.86. The auto index was down 1.58
per cent to 11,203.65.