ASTRO GUIDE FOR NIFTY

CRUCIAL & DIRECTIONAL WEEK

Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Rohini in Taurus to Pushyami in Cancer.

Sun transits in Uttara in Leo and Virgo .

Mercury transits  in    Hasta  and Chitta constellations  in   Virgo.

Venus transits in Pubba in Leo.

Mars  transits in   Anuradha  constellation in Scorpio .  

Saturn transits in Visakha constellation in Libra and in Taurus Navamsa .  

Jupiter transits in Aslesha constellation in Cancer and in Sagittarius navamsa ..

Uranus trine Jupiter will take place in the last week of September which is a Bullish sign and any correction before that time could be an opportunity to Buy. Further, Range between Monday to Thursday (8^th September to 11^th September) which would be the monthly astro range(8180 to 8057) and Nifty  would be bullish above the high (8180) and bearish below the low (8057) for the next Three weeks and a target of 8300 / 8425 on the upper side and 7925 / 7800 on the lower side can be expected.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (15.09.2014 to 19.09.2014) …  

 NIFTY::(8106(+19)   Break Out or Break Down ?

Nifty continued its gains for the Fifth week , though gained marginally. While Nifty gained only marginally broader market was more strong with mid cap stocks gaining smartly. Further, Nifty moved in a narrow range last week and a  directional move can be expected this week, hence this week would be quite crucial. As PM’s US visit is round the corner and bullish sentiment could be expected around his visit time and any reasonable fall before that would be an opportunity to Buy keeping in view the forthcoming event.

PSU divestment plan  would affect the prices of those scrips in addition to sucking liquidity from the system. However, this would be only a temporary phenomenon and prices could / would come back over a period of time.

 Advance Tax numbers would act as guide for the earnings and would affect the sentiment of the market.

As Nifty has been on the rise for the last 5 weeks, a reasonable retracement is natural. However, in view of the Chinese Premier visit to India and PM’s visit to US, lot of investments could be promised which would perk up the sentiment further. As long term bullish trend is  a foregone conclusion, most market participants are expecting a short term correction for investing which has been eluding. However, stocks have been correcting individually and scrip specific approach is to be followed.

While IIP figures released after Friday’s market were negative and a lower opening on Monday appears likely, further movement depends on Advance Tax numbers, FII flows, domestic and global cues.  Further, Gas Pricing issue also is likely to be settled during the week which would influence  Reliance.

However, with a committed and proactive Government, turnaround among key sectors is only a matter of time and Stock market usually discounts future in advance and hence this bull run.

Nifty is trading above the monthly breakout level and the weekly break out level of 8075 but was unable clear the weekly break out level last week. For the next week, breakout level if 8215 and Break down level is 8025 and one of the Two levels would most probably be cleared and go further in the same direction for the rest of the month.

Highly positive macro indicator is the falling crude oil prices and falling gold imports which would positively impact Current Account Deficit.

PSU Banks need to come out of the NPA problem which could take further time in view of the gravity of the problem.  IT Sector is buoyant and further buoyancy too can be expected in view of strengthening US  economy. Infra and Power sector woes can be expected to be addressed by the present Government

Macro  economic indicators have turned positive in view of the falling

crude oil prices as Diesel subsidy is nearly phased out.   If inflation too eases leading to reduction of interest  rates, economic revival would kick in leading to earnings growth and higher PE too. With a proactive and  committed Government at the centre, it would happen sooner than later. However, a reasonable correction  could take place before another leg of upmove. On the other hand, if market remains sideways for a considerable period also, it could be  taken as a correction. Stocks which have run up ahead of fundamentals are seen correcting. Most PSU stocks and Infra stocks corrected sharply during the last Two months. 

Technically, Nifty is bullish in all time frames and very short term trend could come under threat if it closes below 8050.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8000, 7810, 7540 and 6925 respectively and would act as supports. Nifty has taken support from about 50 DMA last Three times and could be expected to lend strong support and a deeper correction could set in only if it closes and trades  below 50 DMA(7810) consistently.

Based on the present Government’s agenda, Infra  and Power sectors could come out of their problems soon . Stocks of promoters with proven record may be preferred in these sectors.

  Investors need to accumulate quality stocks while traders need to be ever vigilant.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 21, which is about 15% above the long term PE multiple.  Hence, further upside (  8500+ is possible during the year / before next Budget)  

in view of the  stable and performing Government  at the centre as earnings would go up because of favourable atmosphere .  Hence, it could pullback nearer to long term average when it gets into correction.

 Market is usually ahead of fundamentals and fundamentals need to catch up with the present valuations which could take some time , hence correction could be expected. (However, scrips are seen correcting though Nifty is very bullish)

.

Further, Nifty had been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 (till 2013) for more than 4 years and  a  powerful breakout

had taken place  for an initial target of about 8200 / 8500.. Hence strong long term support would be around 6925

level and Medium term support is 7540.

Technical Levels ::

RESISTANCE LEVELS : 8195,  8285, 8380 

SUPPORT LEVELS : 8015, 7925, 7840.

Minor resistances may be found at 8145,8175,  8190, 8220  and minor supports at 8065, 8040, 8020 and 7990.

For short term Nifty is neutral and would become bullish on a close above 8140 with strong resistance at 8215 and bearish on a close below 8050 with strong support around 7950.

Advice for Traders ::

Nifty continued its uptrend for Fifth  week but momentum among large cap stocks seems to be fading / declining.  If Nifty continuously maintains below 8070 / 8050, it can be considered bearish for the week and further downside can be expected. On the other hand, if it continuously maintains above 8130 / 8150, it can be considered bullish and further upside can be expected. Further, a wide range and directional move can be expected in view of the narrow move last week.