SELL ON RISE

WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

Planetary Position ::  

During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Chitta in Libra to Jyestha in Scorpio.

Sun transits in   Poorvabhadra in Aquarius.

Mercury   transits in Dhanishta in Aquarius.

Venus transits in   Revathi in Pisces and moves to Aries on Friday.

Mars transits in  Revathi in Pisces.

Saturn transits in   Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign and in Libra Navamsa and Saturn is in stationary mode ahead of Retrograde motion.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation Capricorn Navamsa  .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

Moon’s placement between Rahu and Ketu and conjunction with Saturn would mean more of fear and greed complex among market participants.

Nifty Outlook for the Week

(Short term Bearishness in the offing …???)

NIFTY :: 8938 (+36) 

Nifty closed with marginal gain amid  roller coaster ride.  Recent General Budget and Railway Budget proposals were greeted by the market as Nifty is up about 3% since the presentation of Economic survey. When the benefit of interest rate cut is passed on to borrowers, it would be reflected in corporate performance. However, certain sectors are performing well while certain sectors have been underperforming. Private Sector Banks, Pharma and IT are the outperforming sectors while PSU Banks, Metal stocks are the under performers. Market is optimistic about the future of the economy and is ahead of fundamentals.

Coal allocation would spur economic growth in fields such as Mining and power and would contribute to the GDP growth. Reform measures taken by the Government would go a long way in  improving the macro fundamentals. GST from next year would simplify tax regime and ensure ease of doing business. While Medium / long term outlook appears bright, market appears fully priced from  short term point of view and most of the short term triggers are fully priced in. Parliament proceedings on Land Bill and other bills could have impact on the market. Hence caution needs to be exercised in short term.

Further,  upcycle in Oil prices could once again lead to higher inflation and RBI could be constrained not to cut the rates in future. However,  Growth and Inflation need to be balanced.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8790, 8620, 8445 and 8070 respectively and would

act as supports / resistances. Nifty is above all averages .

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact.  

Nifty is quoting at a PE of more than  23.80 which is around   25% above the long term PE multiple.  Nifty EPS fell after Q3 results and the EPS fell from 391 to 374  due to change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE, though not in bubble zone, is indicating caution and earnings need to improve substantially over the next Two quarters  failing which a reversion to mean with a serious correction can not be ruled out.

Strong long term support would be around 8075

level and Medium term support is 8450. 

Technical Levels ::

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to be Bullish above 8960 with

resistance at 9020, 9085, 9125, 9190 and is expected to Bearish below 8915 with Supports at 8855, 8790 8750, 8685.

Short term trend for Nifty is presently bullish and would continue to remain bullish as long as it holds above 8850. However, in view of the sharp fall from higher levels, it appears to have topped out for short term .

Breakout level for the week is 9180,  and break down level for the week is 8780. 

Advice for Traders ::

Nifty appears to have topped out for short term and could move side ways with down ward bias for some time. Hence caution at higher levels / “Sell on Rise” with 9025 / 9120 as stop loss and which could be trailed slowly as per the market movement. However, short term bearishness would be confirmed only on a close below 8850. Traders with high risk appetite can consider short position on rise with the aforementioned stop loss while traders with low appetite could wait for the confirmation of bearishness. However, long / medium term trend continues to be bullish and investors with long / medium term horizon can accumulate quality stocks in stages.