India's
domestic markets have traded on a strong note in 2017, but of late
there is a sense of underlying unease, Singapore's DBS Bank said
today. While the equity markets and rupee have held their ground, the
"cautious mood" is most palpable in the debt markets, the
multinational banking and financial services corporation said in a
daily market report. DBS noted that 10-year bond yields climbed for a
fifth consecutive month into December (6.5 per cent in June 2017 to
over 7.2 per cent in December -– one-and-a-half-year highs), with
momentum strengthening due to a confluence of unfavourable factors on
both the demand and supply front. In the immediate term, some
consolidation at highs is likely as much of the negativity has been
priced in, it observed. Eyes are on upcoming event risks -- two state
election results due on 18 December (stakes are higher in Gujarat),
the winter parliament session, November trade numbers, and fiscal
developments, which will dictate near-term action, believes DBS.
"Beyond that, factoring in the recent sell-off and the
likelihood of a weaker macro profile, we see reason to be cautious,
nudging up our yield forecasts for the year ahead," the report
stated. Beyond this year, five states go the polls in 2018, and five
more until the General Elections in the first half of 2019. The
crucial states are Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh, with a
bigger weight in the Upper House of Parliament, it added. The ruling
Bharatiya Janata Party's performance in the upcoming state polls will
serve as a litmus test of its popularity considering recent policy
changes and reforms, particularly the Goods and Services Tax (GST),
the bank said. Overall, risks are building on the horizon, muddied by
the rise in commodity prices. Despite this modest deterioration, it
is amply clear that the metrics are still in a far better shape than
in 2013. The bond issuance calendar will be busy for the December
2017 quarter, but is expected to ease off into January-March 2018. In
the face of surging yields, the authorities deferred some issuance,
conducted debt repurchases, and raised limits for foreign portfolio
debt interests (FPI), which has provided temporary relief from the
supply end. "We have nudged up our yield forecasts for India
government bonds and now expect 2-year and 10-year yields to touch
6.6 per cent and 7.5 per cent by end-2018," said DBS. "Ten-year
yields have risen by more than 50 bps since end-September as the
market gravitates to our view that fundamentals (rising price
pressures and a widening current account deficit) have become a lot
less conducive for bonds. "Notably, headline inflation rose 4.9
per cent year-on- year (against consensus estimates of a 4.3 per cent
rise) in November, further supporting our case that a modest rate
hike cycle may be poised to begin in 2019," it said.
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