INVESTOR's WEALTH ZOOMS UP BY Rs.28 LAKH CRORES

Stock market investors became richer by a whopping Rs 28 lakh crore in 2014 as a record market rally boosted the valuation of all listed firms to Rs 98.36 lakh crore at the end of year. This was the fourth consecutive year of rise in investor wealth. The year also saw investor wealth hitting Rs 100 lakh crore mark. In 2014, the benchmark Sensex rose by 6,328.74 points or 30 per cent and recorded a record high of 28,822.37 on November 28. This is the highest annual gain since 2009 when it had rallied by 7,817 points. The 30-share gauge ended the year on a positive note at 27,499.42, up 95.88 points. The broader CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange also firmed up by 34.45 points to end at 8,282.70. It has risen by 1,978.7 points or 31.38 per cent for the year 2014. The rise in investor wealth was also on account of the continued rise in the number of listed firms. At present, the total number of listed companies stands at 5,542. Analysts said that Indian stock market saw an excellent year riding high on robust investor sentiment, impressive foreign fund inflow, formation of a new majority government at the Centre and economic reforms. "Markets rode higher on the back of hope of structural reforms driven by a decisive political mandate and improving macro-economic balances. The new government reinforced its position in the elections in some of the important states and initiated the reforms in a gradual manner including those on FDI norms, direct transfer benefit, diesel de-regulation, labour reforms, coal allocation, ordinance on land acquisition, the 'Make in India' initiative," said Devendra Nevgi, CEO, ZyFin Advisors. In the stock market, TCS continued to remain the most valued firm as its market valuation stands at Rs 5,00,396.24 crore. TCS is followed by ITC, ONGC, RIL and CIL in the top five companies list. In 2014, shares of Tata Motors zoomed 31.8 per cent, ONGC surged 18.22 per cent, TCS gained 17.67 per cent) and ITC firmed up by 14.55 per cent. Foreign investors have infused over USD 16 billion into equities this year.

 

BEST ANNUAL GROWTH IN 5 YEARS

Stocks ended 2014 on a cheerful note with the Sensex today rising nearly 96 points to 27,499.42 and the Nifty climbing over 34 points to 8,282.70, helping the Indian markets notch up their best annual gain in five years. The new government's reform initiatives, robust foreign fund flows and a wave of optimism over growth prospects pushed up share values in 2014, making investors richer by a whopping Rs 28 lakh crore. The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex today rallied for the fourth sraight session to end at almost one-week highs. The market saw mostly across-the-board buying as 11 out of 12 sectoral indices closed with gains. Power, realty, consumer durables, pharma and oil & gas shares good activity. However, the BSE Auto index closed in the red on selling in some stocks as excise duty incentives for the sector would not be extended beyond December 31. The 30-share Sensex resumed today a tad lower but recovered immediately. It remained in positive terrain throughout the session to settle at 27,499.42, a rise of 95.88 points or 0.35 per cent. In straight four sessions, it has spurted by 290.81 points or 1.07 per cent. For the year as a whole, the Sensex registered 6,328.74 points or 29.89 per cent -- its best gain since 2009. "Our market remains the hot investment option. And this growth is expected to continue as cyclical, rate-sensitive and investment-oriented stocks find flavour with investors," said Kamlesh Rao, CEO, Kotak Securities. Meanwhile, the broader 50-issue CNX Nifty of the NSE advanced by 34.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 8,282.70. The CNX Nifty has spurted by 1,978.70 points, or 31.39 per cent, during 2014 calender year.

FORUMS IRE ON SERVICES SECTOR

Services sector in 2014 continued to be under the watchful eyes of various consumer fora which stood by the motto "consumer is the king" and dealt firmly with both government and private entities to protect citizens from unfair trade practices. Benefit of several campaigns like "Jago Grahak Jago" seems to be catching up with the consumers who during the year dared to drag health care giants, banking and insurance major, airlines, Railways, telecom heavy weights and top realtors to various consumer courts for redressal of their grievances. Leading the way, National Consumer Disputes Redressal Commission (NCDRC), the apex consumer body, in August dealt sternly with pharmaceutical giant Novartis India Ltd for over charging and making exorbitant profit on sale of its non-cancerous drug. Holding that the company was indulging in principles which were against ethics and morality, it said the MRP fixed by Ministry of Health or Ministry of Commence was on a higher side and directed the Centre to take steps to re-fix the MRP of the drug so that the consumers should not suffer. Lal Path Labs, which has a major chain of diagnostic centres, also had to cough up Rs four lakh as damages for wrongly diagnosing a doctor as HIV positive. The lab conducted a DNA test instead of one for HIV virus. A forum noted that there were rise in number of complaints against the lab and said facts reveal a "shocking state of affairs" as it was "fleecing consumers by false advertisements and using inefficient medical personnel and staff". Several doctors of private and government hospitals including Ram Manohar Lohia hospital, GTB Hospital and Rajiv Gandhi Cancer Institute and Research Centre were heavily fined for negligence in treatment. In one such case, a nursing home and its two doctors were asked to pay Rs 10 lakh as compensation to a woman for leaving a piece of sponge in her abdomen during an operation in 2012 resulting in formation of 1.5 litre pus in her body. Real-estate firms were rapped by consumer fora which in several cases held that these firms were taking money on false temptation and misrepresentation and also failing to provide property and making profits at the expense of others.

Realtors who faced the fora's ire included DLF, Parsvnath Developers Ltd, Ansal Properties and Infrastructure Ltd, TDI Infrastructure Pvt Ltd and Omaxe Buildhome Pvt Ltd. DLF in one case was rapped by a district consumer forum for imaginary castle building and "unfair trade practice" as it noted that in number of cases, the firm was asked to refund provisional deposit as the project failed. Parsvnath Developers Ltd in one case was asked to pay back money to its consumers by the fora which said it victimised thousands of consumers financially, physically and mentally by "deficient service" and that it adopted harassing attitude. In the aviation sector, Indian as well as foreign airlines, including Air India, had to pay for deficiency in providing services to fliers and causing discomfort and inconvenience. Bahrain's national carrier Gulf Air was asked to pay compensation of Rs 20 lakh to an Indian passenger as he was denied the boarding pass at the airport to travel to Qatar in 2008 despite having valid documents. It had cost him his job. While Railways faced the ire of the fora for providing imperfect services in cases related to theft or damage of consumers' goods, seat confirmation and hanging reservation status, insurance firms also faced a tough time for adopting unfair trade practices. The fora observed that the ticket fare paid to railways make it accountable for safe and complete journey of passengers from point of boarding to point of embankments. Regarding banks, the fora held that they are supposed to mould themselves in consumer friendly mode, rather than acting as office without any sensitivity. There were several cases of default services in relation to credit card, money transaction, cheques and loans by banks including State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, ICICI Bank Ltd, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, UCO Bank, Corporation Bank, ABN Amro Bank, Vijaya Bank and others. The fora's displeasure was visible in teleservices cases where in one such judgement a district consumer forum pulled up a private service provider for activating additional services without the consent of the user. It had held that practice of charging money for caller tunes without user's request has become rampant and is a general grievance with teleservices. Automobile majors like Tata and Maruti too faced consumer fora's ire and were asked to pay money to consumers whom they had sold defective cars.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 31 & REVIEW

SECOND HALF BETTER 

 

Nifty                               8248    +2

 

Nifty traded in a narrow range with bearish bias for most part of the day and recovered sharply towards close of the day to close flat for the day recouping the intraday losses. Nifty needs to close above 8285 to get out of the present narrow movement and become bullish.  Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8290,, 8325 and find support at 8210, 8175 for Wednesday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to witness volatile movements in the forenoon and it could recover / remain generally better in Second half of the day.

WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

MONTHLY ASTRO RANGE...THE REFERENCE RANGE…. !!!

NIFTY :: 8201 (-24) (Consolidation Mode Likely … )

While Nifty closed nearly flat for the week erasing initial gains of the week due to derivative expiry concerns. Derivative series closed negative, one of the few instances in 2014. Parliament session ended without transacting any major business. However, Government’s resolve towards reforms was evident with the promulgation of ordinances on Coal and Insurance.  State Election results were also in line with general expectations. New Derivative series started off on  a  cautious note and would be influenced by corporate results and the reform measures of the Government. Last week’s movement was rather erratic with Nifty closing above 8300 and then closed below 8200 due to derivative expiry pressures. Macro economic scenario continues to be positive with falling crude oil prices but strengthening US $ / depreciating INR is a cause for worry. Next major policy would be the Budget / GST / Reform Process of the Government. Most of the unfinished items on reform agenda have been attended to by the Government and the it would take time to yield the results.

Nifty’s chart pattern suggests selling at higher levels and might not make new high with out possible further downside. If Nifty closes below 8100, downside would be confirmed. On the upside 8350 to 8400 could prove to be a major hurdle to cross.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8330, 8265, 8095 and 7590 respectively and would

act as supports / resistances. Nifty is below 50 and 20 DMA and is above 100DMA and could offer support. If 100 DMA is clearly breached, it could slide further deeply.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the

long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 21 which is about 17% above the

long term PE multiple.  Further fall to about 20PE would make it attractive (During December  it touched about 20.35PE) . TTM EPS and  PE would improve after Q3 results.  Psu Banks seem to be enjoying high degree of margin of safety and qualify for a Value Buy as market can not complete its bull run with out the participation of this sector.  Policy initiatives might improve sagging Infra and Realty sectors.

Strong long term support would be around 7600

level and Medium term support is 8100. 

Planetary Position

During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Revathi in Pisces to Rohini in Taurus.

Sun transits in  Moola and Poorvashadha   in  Sagittarius.

Mercury   transits  in    Poorvashadha and Uttarashadha  constellation in  Sagittarius.

Venus transits in  Uttarashadha   in Sagittarius and Capricorn.

Mars , exalted,  transits in    Dhanisha  constellations in  Capricorn .  

Saturn transits in  Scorpio  in Anuradha in Leo and Virgo Navamsa.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015, transits in Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Pisces  navamsa .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

Nifty’s range between 26^th December and 29^th December (Friday to Monday) would be the reference range for the next month and Nifty would be bullish above the high of the range and bearish below the low of the range for January.

Technical Levels ::

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face

resistance at 8290,  8385, 8475 and find support at 8110, 8020, 7930.

Minor resistances may be found at 8265, 8310, 8350, 8400  and minor supports at 8135, 8080, 8050, 8000.

Nifty is in narrow range with bearish bias and downside would be confirmed on a close below 8100 while upside would be confirmed on a close above 8300.

Further huge resistance is also placed around 8400 – 8450, which if crossed only , a new high can be expected. Hence, it may not be a smooth ride for a New high in January.

Breakout level for the week is 8420,  and break down level for the week is 8090.

Advice for Traders ::

Usually new derivative series begins with optimism which appeared to be missing due to holiday season. Market seems to be favouring PSU Bank because of their margin of safety. Nifty is in a neutral zone and a close above 8300 or close below 8100 would provide further direction.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

TRADE DEFICIT ROSE 22 TIMES

India's foreign trade rose over 18 times since the launch of economic liberalisation programme in 1991 while the trade deficit widened by more than 22 times. The country's foreign trade (export and import) has increased with an annual average growth rate of 13.42 per cent from USD 42 billion in 1990-91 to USD 765 billion in 2013-14.
However, trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports, jumped to USD 136 billion in 2013-14 from USD 6 billion in 1990-91, according to official data.
Experts attributed declining growth of manufacturing sector to the widening of trade deficit.
"The growth of India's manufacturing sector' declined continuously. From 23-24 per cent share in the GDP, it came down to about 15 per cent currently. This was the main reason for ballooning trade gap," Ajay Sahai, Director General & CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said.
He said that free trade agreements too have impacted the country's trade balance. Rise in imports, including oil, has contributed to rise in the country's trade deficit.
India had trade deficit with as many as 80 countries, including China, Australia and Iraq in 2012-13.
In the last few years, global economic crisis, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the slowdown in developed economies have adversely impacted demand for India's exports.
Further, the countries with which India has favourable trade balance in 2013-14 includes the US, Singapore, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Sri Lanka, UK, Kenya, Nepal and Vietnam.
Whereas in 1990-91, countries which have imported more from India than exported includes USSR, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Mauritius, Spain, Afghanistan and Nigeria. During April-November this fiscal, India's imports were up 4.65 per cent to USD 316.37 billion, while exports were up 5.02 per cent to USD 215.75 billion. Trade deficit during this period stood at USD 100.61 billion as against USD 96.89 billion in the same period last fiscal. High trade deficit impacts exchange rate and foreign exchange reserve position.

GOLD & SLIVER LOOSE SHEEN

Losing its sheen for the second year in a row, gold turned cheaper by over 10 per cent in 2014 as the government tried to divert investors away from this 'unproductive asset', even as import curbs led to a rise in smuggling of the yellow metal. For silver, the year has been even worse with a fall of about 20 per cent in its price. As the year 2014 draws to a close, gold prices have fallen to nearly Rs 26,000 per 10 grams from close to Rs 30,000 at the end of 2013. For silver, the fall has been even sharper at about Rs 36,000 per kg from close to Rs 44,000 at the beginning of 2014. The fall in prices of the two precious metals came amid import curbs on gold for a significant part of the year, even as RBI has now eased some of these curbs. A strong rally in the stock market, which is emerging as a preferred investment class, and sustained selling pressure from bullion stockists, coupled with weak trends in global metal markets, further dampened the sentiment in the precious metal market in India, experts said. After starting the year at around Rs 29,800-level, the standard gold (99.5 purity) touched its yearly high of Rs 30,795 per 10 grams on March 3, but started moving downwards thereafter and has touched a low near Rs 26,000 this month. Pure gold (99.9 purity) also recorded a high of Rs 30,945 per 10 grams early in the year, but soon began falling and touched a low near Rs 27,000 in December. Silver also scaled a peak of close to Rs 50,000 early in the year, but is headed to end the year near Rs 36,000-37,000-level. It had ended 2013 at Rs 44,230 per kg. A sharp appreciation in the US dollar against the Indian currency added to the selling pressure in gold, while festival demand also remained relatively weak this year.

Government had imposed severe restrictions late last year on gold imports, including an increase in import duty to 10 per cent to check burgeoning current account deficit and sliding rupee. The steps, in line with the Centre's aim to help lower gold imports, also led to increased instances of smuggling. However, some restrictions were eased in May, just before the previous UPA government's tenure ended, while further curbs were lifted last month under the new regime. The government has now also cut the import tariff value on gold and silver, taking into account weak global trends. Meanwhile, silver prices also declined on reduced off-take from industrial users. Sharp rise in equity market affected the sentiment in the precious metals as investors transferred funds to equities from metals. The year witnessed little buying interest during festivals like Dhanteras and Diwali, while demand was weak even during the wedding season. In the global market, gold peaked above USD 1,300-level an ounce around the middle of the year on safe haven buying triggered by escalating geopolitical tension. However, it declined afterwards to touch a low of USD 1,140 an ounce towards the end of the year amid unwinding of positions by the hedge funds.

SENSEX GAIN OVER 6000 pts

BEST EVER RALLY IN 5 YEARS

Riding high on the sentiments, the stock market is gearing up for its best performance in five years with a rally of over 6,000 points in the benchmark Sensex in 2014 -- which also saw the investors' wealth hitting Rs 100 trillion level for the first time in history. With just four days of trading left this year, the Sensex has rallied by nearly 29 per cent so far in 2014 with a gain of 6,038 points -- the highest annual gain since the year 2009 when the bluechip index had rallied by 7,817 points. Besides, the Sensex also has a chance to clock its second best ever annual rally this year, if it manages to end 2014 with a gain of over 6,500 points (recorded in the year 2007).In percentage terms also, the rally this year is the biggest since 2009 (81 per cent).

The year also left behind a trail of bullish fervour even as market participants strongly feel that 2015 would belong to bulls with no major negative factor in sight and market driver FIIs all set to pour in their investments in Indian equities.
Experts attribute the rally in stock markets during 2014 largely to the thumping mandate given in general elections to Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre and the subsequent boost to the investor sentiments.
The other benchmark index Nifty has also gained nearly 30 per cent, while both the indices crossed several milestones before turning sluggish towards the end of the year amid sale of shares by foreign investors.
The Sensex clocked a peak of 28,822 points this year and currently stands at 27208.61 points, while coming a long way from a low of 19,963 points hit in February. The Nifty also logged its low of 5,933.30 points in February and now stands at 8,174 points.The year 2014 also marks the third consecutive year of gains for the stock market, after a sharp plunge in 2011. However, this year's gain is much higher than a 9 per cent rally (1,744 points for Sensex) in the last year 2013.

The market players expect the buoyancy to continue in the New Year on anticipation of fresh economic reforms. The investors are also looking forward to the divestment programme gathering momentum after a successful sale of five per cent stake in public sector steel giant Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL).
The government has lined up a host of PSUs including ONGC, Coal India and NHPC, for disinvestment in the current fiscal, targeting Rs 43,425 crore through the stake sales. The new government also took steps to lower subsidies and cut the fiscal deficit, while easing FDI rules in various sectors.

SMALL, MID CAPS SURPASS SENSEX GAIN
The year under review witnessed many records as indices across-the-board kept on hitting new peaks at intervals on the back of hectic purchases by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Retail investors too flocked back to the stocks to get their share of profits. As a result, the BSE small cap index and midcap indices also zoomed and outperformed the Sensex. For the first time in recent years, all 12 sectoral indices have registered huge gains and seven of them even scaled new peaks. The indices of Bank, Consumer Durables, Healthcare and Auto stocks were the biggest winners.

INVESTORS WEALTH CROSS 100 Tr MARK

Investors' wealth crossed Rs 100 trillion mark for the first time ever on December 3. Positive global developments also enlivened the market sentiment. The major factor on global scenario was a sharp fall in oil prices. The Brent crude oil prices tumbled to a five-year low below USD 65 a barrel at the fag end of the year. There was a considerable boost in the US economy as also a financial stimulus announced by European Central bank (ECB), China and Japan to support their economies. Back home, the sustained foreign capital inflow, fall in inflation in the last quarter of year, fresh reform initiatives by the new government also set the positive tone in the market.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have injected a massive Rs one lakh crore during the year. FIIs remained consistent buyers in Indian stocks as US Federal Reserve had continued reducing monetary stimulus for the US economy.
They had signalled interest rates hike but later maintained a commitment to keep interest rates near zero for "considerable time". Fed's bond buying programme has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging markets over the past few years.

GAINERS & LOOSERS
Overall, a large number of Sensex-based stocks are gearing up to end the year with gains ranging from 1 per cent to 90 per cent. Only a few stocks that have remained relatively weak and they include NTPC, Tata power, Tata Steel and Wipro. Major gainers from the Sensex pack include Maruti Suzuki, Axis Bank, SBI, ICICI Bank, Cipla, BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, L&T, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Auto, Coal India, Dr Reddy's Lab, Hindalco, HUL, M&M and Tata Motors.
Among the S&P BSE sectoral indices, all 12 sectoral indices are likely to close with gains and the prominent gainers include the indices for consumer durables, capital goods, auto and healthcare sectors.
Second-line stocks too attracted heavy buying interest from retail investors and outperformed the sensex.

MF's REACH Rs 11 TRILLION MARK

Fighting all adversities and a tougher regulatory regime, mutual funds are headed for a cash-rich 2014 with an estimated addition of about Rs three lakh crore to its asset base to become a Rs 11-trillion market.
Helped by a smart rally in the equity market, the mutual funds' assets under management hit a record high of Rs 10.96 lakh crore in October itself and has remained near Rs 10.9 lakh crore as the year draws to a close.
Fund houses are upbeat about the industry performance for the next year as equity markets are expected to continue to deliver making the segment attractive.
"2014 witnessed significant milestones for the mutual fund industry, with assets growing 32 per cent to around Rs 11 lakh crore as on November," industry body AMFI's Chairman and top fund house Reliance Mutual Fund's chief Sundeep Sikka said.
The number of investors have also grown substantially this year, Sikka said, while adding that a rally in markets and improving economic indicators are expected to result in a much more broad-based participation in 2015. especially among retail investors.
"The next year (2015) will be a very good year for the mutual fund industry," JP Morgan AMC Managing Director and CEO Nandkumar Surti said.
HSBC Global Asset Management India CEO Puneet Chaddha said :"We are currently in a sweet spot wherein equity markets are expected to continue to deliver over the medium term making the segment attractive."
"We also need to consider that we are possibly at the peak of the interest rate cycle. Therefore, long term bond segment might become attractive as the interest rates go down," he added.
Besides, industry believes that any new entrant will not make its way in the MF sector any time soon next year.
In 2014, the total assets under management (AUM) of all 45 fund houses put together soared by 30 per cent on improved stock markets condition and strong inflows in equity and 'liquid' or 'money market', industry estimates show.
This was the third consecutive yearly rise in the industry AUM, after a drop in the assets base for two preceding years.
The year, however, also saw some exits, including by way of merger and acquisitions. Those having exited the Indian mutual fund space include Daiwa, ING, Morgan Stanley, Pramerica, Fidelity and Pinebridge.
The total industry AUM stood at Rs 8.26 lakh crore at the end of 2013, while the same was Rs 8.08 lakh crore at 2012-end. It stood at about Rs 6.11 lakh crore in 2011. It was about Rs 6.26 lakh crore in 2010 and Rs 6.65 lakh crore in 2009.
Mutual funds collect money from investors and later invest the same into various market segments including stocks, IPOs (primary market) and bonds.

This massive gain in mutual fund assets base is fuelled by gain in equities, supported by stable government and positive global scenario.
"Optimism of investors is one of the main reasons why the industry has seen the growth in this year. The new government coming into power with majority on their own gave sense of stability and hope that this will will bring economy back on track," Quantum AMC CEO Jimmy Patel said.
"Also inflows from foreign have been on the positive side which is playing a role in market levels reaching all-time high," he added.
"MF Industry continued its good run in 2014, with improvement across several fronts like asset growth, inflows, folios and SIPs.
"In 11 months of 2014, Industry registered equity inflows of Rs 1.2 lakh Cr which is 2.5 times that of 2013. With a stable government in place, and improvement in domestic economic indicators, we expect the Industry to achieve greater heights in 2015 with more broad based participation across both Equity and Fixed Income," Sikka said.
Another highlight of the year, was an impressive growth in number of equity folios. The equity category saw an addition of more than eight lakh folios to three crore.
After witnessing consistent decline in investor accounts in the past four years, the segment saw first rise in folios in the month of April.
Prior to that, the equity mutual fund sector had seen a continuous closure of folios since March 2009 after the market crashed due to the global financial crisis in late 2008. Since March 2009, it has seen a closure of 1.5 crore folios.
The investor base reached its peak of 4.11 crore in March 2009, while it was 3.77 crore in March 2008.
Additionally, a relatively higher number of NFOs were launched during the year. This was especially in the multi-assets, capital protection and close ended equity category.
The year 2014 has witnessed consolidation in the industry. Unfortunately it was not a voluntarily consolidation but a forced one. Post the Rs 50 crore net-worth rule for fund houses, market leaders were especially seen focusing on fund-level acquisitions.
However, the recent new move by Sebi that allows these small mutual fund companies to launch a maximum of two schemes annually till the time they meet norms will come to help.
"...while the ongoing spate of consolidation is likely to continue; we hope the new government to bring some positive change in the system," Patel said.
Chaddha believes that net worth criteria will not have any major impact as most fund houses would not have any issues in meeting these guidelines.

DBT for LPG THE WORLD's LARGEST

The ambitious scheme of giving cash subsidy on cooking gas directly to consumers has become the world's largest direct benefit transfer with 2.5 crore households getting about Rs 550 crore since November 15.
The direct benefit transfer on LPG (DBTL), under which cash subsidy is paid to consumers so that they can buy cooking gas at market price, was rolled out in 54 districts from November 15 and will be extended all over the country from January 1.
"In 54 districts, 75 per cent of the population is now covered by DBTL," Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said here. "DBTL today has become the world's largest direct benefit transfer scheme."
The scheme has surpassed number of beneficiaries in direct benefit transfer programmes in China and Brazil.
Pradhan said he has personally reviewed roll out of the scheme in as many as 42 districts so far and will do so in 10 or so before the end of the year. "Out of such a large number of users joining the scheme, we received only 3,000 complaints, 80 per cent of which have been addressed within 7 days."
His ministry officials as well as top executives of oil marketing companies have adopted one district each in the country to oversee roll out of the scheme under which consumers have to get their bank accounts seeded with their LPG connection.
The moment they join the scheme, oil companies transfer advance cash subsidy in their bank accounts to enable them to buy LPG refills at market rate. Once a consumer takes delivery of the cylinder, another advance cash subsidy is transferred to the bank account.
At present, a subsidised LPG cylinder costs Rs 417 per 14.2-kg bottle while its market price is Rs 752, the difference being the subsidy component.

WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

FURTHER PULLBACK... !!

Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Moola in Sagittarius to Sathabhisham in Aquarius.

Sun transits in  Moola   in  Sagittarius.

Mercury   transits  in    Poorvashadha  constellation in  Sagittarius.

Venus transits in  Poorvashadha  in Sagittarius.

Mars , exalted,  transits in    Sravana  constellations in  Capricorn .  

Saturn transits in  Scorpio  in Anuradha in Leo  Navamsa.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Pisces  navamsa .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

Nifty’s range between 26^th December and 29^th December(Friday to Monday) would be the reference range for the next month and Nifty would be bullish above the high and bearish below the low for the rest of the month.

Uranus in square to Pluto caused huge volatility breaking supports and resistances.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (15.12.2014 to 19.12.2014) … 

NIFTY :: 8225 (+1) (Scrip Specific Movements … )

While Nifty closed flat for the week, it was an action packed week with a bumpy  ride. Nifty fell sharply in the first half of the week only to recover by end of the week and to close flat for the week. Global cues caused both fall and rise during the week. Sharp recovery instilled optimism as Government too acted swiftly to table GST Bill in Lok Sabha. Government would be  finishing the (old) reform  agenda once it completes Insurance Bill and GST.  After this, it could be focusing on the Budget to usher in growth oriented policies. While fundamentals would take time to improve, Stock market usually discounts future in advance. Last week gave an excellent opportunity for investors to pick fundamentally good stocks at relatively lower  prices. The only cause for concern is the depreciating Rupee.

While Nifty appears to have bottomed out, it needs to close above 8250 to confirm the reversal of downtrend. IT stocks appears to have bottomed out and depreciating Rupee is favourable for this sector.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8380, 8235, 8075 and 7550 respectively and would act as supports / resistances. Nifty closed below 100DMA for a day during the week and was quick in regaining the ground.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 21 which is about 17% above the long term PE multiple.  Further fall to about 20PE would make it attractive (During the week it touched about 20.35PE) . TTM EPS and  PE would improve after Q3 results.  Psu Banks seem to be enjoying high degree of margin of safety and qualify for a Value Buy as market can not complete its bull run with out the participation of this sector.  Policy initiatives might improve sagging Infra and Realty sectors.

Strong long term support would be around 7550 level and Medium term support is 8075. 

Technical Levels ::

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face

resistance at 8315,  8405, 8500 and find support at 8130, 8045, 7955.

Minor resistances may be found at 8320, 8390, 8485, 8510  and minor supports at 8130, 8060, 8015, 7945.

Nifty appears to have temporarily bottomed out but the reversal would be confirmed only on a close above 8250. If it closes above 8250, Long positions may be considered with a stop loss of 8175 on close basis.

Further huge resistance is also placed around 8400 – 8450, which if crossed only , a new high can be expected. Hence, it may not be a smooth ride for a New high in January.

Breakout level for the week is 8340,  and break down level for the week is 7885, which is far away. A close above 8250 could take Nifty to about 8400.

Advice for Traders ::

Bears appears to have given up after having a feast. Being last week of derivative closing, scrip specific movements are most likely. While Nifty gained smartly from low levels, several scrips appears to be in bear grip and might nosedive further in view of F&O expiry. Further Pullback is possible in view of the sharp recovery from lower levels.

VILLAGE HOUSEHOLD's AVERAGE INCOME Rs. 10 LAKH

Households in rural areas hold assets worth over Rs 10 lakh on average, less than half the holdings by those in cities, says a government survey. At the same time, villages account for higher proportion of families owning some physical and financial assets at 98 per cent, higher than 94 per cent in urban areas. "Around 98 per cent of rural households and around 94 per cent of urban households in India owned some physical and financial assets as on June 30, 2012. Average value of assets (AVA) owned by a household was Rs 10.07 lakh for the rural areas and Rs 22.85 lakh for the urban areas," said the 70th round of National Sample Survey's All India Debt and Investment Survey (AIDIS). According to the survey, about 31 per cent of the rural households and 22 per cent of the urban households reported debt (cash loan) outstanding as on June 30, 2012. The average amount of debt (AOD) for a rural household was Rs 32,522 and that for an urban household was Rs 84,625. The indebtedness as on June 30, 2012, was predominant for both rural (20.3 per cent) and urban (13.4 per cent) households. ‘Interest-free loans’ (mainly taken from friends and relatives), were also quite significant - with 6.5 per cent in the villages and 4.4 per cent in cities. Among the social groups, in rural India, the incidence of indebtedness (16.9 per cent) was lowest for ST households and highest (35.7 per cent) for OBC households. On the other hand, average amount of debt was lowest for ST households (Rs 9,610) and highest for ‘Others’ households (Rs 44,565). In urban India, the lowest incidence of indebtedness was again that of the ST households (16.4 per cent) and the highest that of OBC (26.0 per cent). But the incidence of indebtedness for ‘others’ was only 19 per cent – lower than that of SC. The relative 2 position of the four social groups, in terms of average amount of debt, was found to be the same as in the rural areas. The results of the survey show that non-institutional agencies played a major role in advancing credit to the households, particularly in rural India. The non-institutional agencies had advanced credit to 19 per cent of rural households, while the institutional agencies had advanced credit to 17 per cent households. In urban India, the institutional agencies appear to have played a major role, advancing credit to 15 per cent of households against 10 per cent by non-institutional agencies. The key indicators of the survey are based on the central sample consisting of 4,529 villages in rural areas and 3,507 urban blocks spread over all states and UTs.

Over 50% of farming households indebted

More than 50 per cent of the families engaged in farm activities were indebted in 2012-13 crop year (July-June), a survey said today. "About 52 per cent of the agricultural households in the country were estimated to be indebted. Among the major states, Andhra Pradesh had the highest share of indebted agricultural households in the country at 92.9 per cent," the farm survey by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said. Andhra Pradesh was followed by Telangana at 89.1 per cent and Tamil Nadu at 82.5 per cent. In rural India, about 60 per cent of the loans were taken from institutional sources including banks (42.9 per cent), co-operative society (14.8 per cent) and government (2.1 per cent). However, share of monthly income of these households from non-farm business fell with increase in land possession. Though net investment in productive assets per agricultural household increased with increase in land size. Amongst others, it was found that a very small segment of the agricultural households utilised crop insurance. "Lack of awareness was the most reported reason by the agricultural households for not insuring their crops during the agricultural year July 2012-June 2013," it said. About 0.1 per cent of rural households were landless and about 93 per cent possessed some type of land. The survey said about 78.5 per cent households did not possess any land outside the village they were living.

LAND HOLDING MARGINAL

As much as 75.42 per cent of total rural households are marginal land owners, who own up to one hectare, while the proportion of families having more than 10 hectares is 0.24 per cent, says a government survey. "Within the rural households, the marginal land owners (possessing more than 0.002 but less than or equal to 1 hectare of land) constituted the highest proportion (75.42per cent) of total rural households," the National Sample Survey's 70th Round on Land and Livestock Holdings in January-December, 2013, said. According to survey a large land owners (possessing land more than 10 hectares) constituted the lowest proportion (0.24 per cent) of the total households.
The landless category (possessing land less than or equal 0.002 hectare) constituted 7.41 per cent of rural households.
In terms of percentage of total area owned, the largest category was the marginal land owners owing 29.75 per cent of the total land area owned.
Among all the ownership holdings, the families with self-employed in cultivation as the major source of income, owned the highest share of land (81.4 per cent of total land) with average area owned 1.104 hectares.
Share of land owned by the families with self-employed in livestock farming and the households with self-employed in other agricultural activities were 1.5 per cent each of the total land area owned. As much as 88.6 per cent of the household operational holdings were operated for the whole agricultural year, whereas 8.5 per cent was operated only during July-December, 2012, and 2.9 per cent only during January-June, 2013. The land use pattern shows that the estimated land area used for crop production was around 94.7 per cent during the season July–December, 2012 and around 79 per cent during the season January–June, 2013.
The proportion of areas of land used for non-agricultural purposes were 2.83 per cent and 13.85 per cent in these two periods respectively. The highest percentage of area was used for growing cereals in both the periods July–December, 2012 (56.21 per cent) and January–June, 2013 (57.74 per cent). The next major use of land was for production of oil seeds (13.75 per cent and 7.34per cent) and pulses (6.30 per cent and 10.20 per cent) in the two seasons respectively.

GOA...TOURIST HOTSPOT

Famous for its sunny beaches, churches, museums and a vibrant nightlife, Goa has topped the list of destinations in India where most people want to head to usher in the New Year, according to a report. The report titled 'Top New Year Destinations' by travel portal TripAdvisor, highlights the places where people from India are planning to visit, to welcome 2015. "Getting out of the city to bring in the New Year has been a trend for a long while now. Be it India or abroad, everyone is looking for interesting places to visit. As a large number of Indians get ready to pack their bags and travel to destinations, known, as well as the offbeat, Goa remains a favourite in this year's list," TripAdvisor Country Manager Nikhil Ganju said today. The coastal state is followed by Dubai, Udaipur (Rajasthan), Manali (Himachal Pradesh) and Jaisalmer (Rajasthan), the report said. "What is the most interesting to see is how accommodation preferences have evolved over the years. About 41 per cent travellers prefer to stay in hotels of different kinds, whereas 23 per cent prefer 'bed and breakfast inns' for their New Year holiday," he said. According to the report, experimentative side of Indian travellers is emerging with a significant share (36 per cent) have opted for 'alternate' accommodations like campgrounds, condos, vacation rentals, hostels, villas and even temple lodgings, Ganju added.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 22 & REVIEW

MIDSESSION SUBDUED

Nifty                               8225   +66

Nifty opened better with a gap following global cues and traded generally better but closed at the lower end of the day suggesting profit booking at higher levels. With decent rise for Two days, Short term bearish trend appears to have reversed but would be confirmed on another positive close. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8265,, 8300 and find support at 8185, 8150 for Monday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to be generally subdued after the opening session and closing hour is sensitive.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 19 & REVIEW

MID SESSION BETTER

Nifty                               8159   +129

Nifty opened better following US Fed decision and gained further to recover most of the week’s losses and closed with a gain of about 1.50%. Nifty once again closed above  100DMA and appears to have made a short term bottom.  Stop loss for Nifty short positions may be maintained at 8200(on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8200,, 8240 and find support at 8120, 8080 for Friday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to be better during midsession. 

 

INDIA LAUCHES GSLV MK III WITH CREW MODULE SUCCESSFULLY

Taking its baby steps towards realising India's ambition to send humans into space, ISRO today successfully tested the atmospheric re-entry of a crew module after its heaviest launch vehicle GSLV Mk-III blasted off from here. Exactly 5.4 minutes after lift off at 9.30 AM from the Second Launch Pad of Satish Dhawan Space Centre here, the module separated from the rocket at an altitude of 126 km and re-entered Earth's atmosphere (about 80 km from sea level). It descended in a ballistic mode and splashed down into the Bay of Bengal, some 180 km from Indira Point, the southern tip of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The LVM3-X flight with active S200 and L110 propulsion stages and a passive C25 stage with dummy engine, carried CARE (Crew Module Atmospheric Re-entry Experiment) as its payload. Weighing over three tonnes, the 2.7-metre tall cup cake shaped crew module with a diameter of 3.1 metres, which features aluminium alloy internal structure with composite panels and ablative thermal protection systems, was made to safely drop down into the sea by specially-made parachutes from Agra-based DRDO lab Aerial Delivery Research and Development Establishment. The experiment also witnessed the largest parachute in action ever made in the country. The main parachute, which helped the crew module touch the waters at around 7 metre/second speed, was 31 metres in diameter. Soon after the successful test flight, a delighted ISRO Chairman K Radhakrishnan said, "This was a very significant day in the history of Indian space programme for the development of the advanced launch vehicle that could carry a 4-tonne class of communication satellite into orbit."

The crew module, which can carry up to two to three astronauts, withstood a heat of around 1,600 degree Celsius, while it travelled towards the surface of the Earth attracted by gravity. The module would be tracked by Indian Coast Guard ships and then taken to Kamarajar Port in Ennore near Chennai, from where it would be shited to Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre at Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala for further study. This experimental mission has helped ISRO with two primary lessons -- to study the flight validation of the complex atmospheric flight regime of LVM3 vehicle and study the re-entry characteristics of CARE crew module. "India started the development process a decade ago and just now we completed the first experimental flight of the GSLV Mark III vehicle christened as LVM Mark III," Radhakrishnan said from the Mission Control Centre. "The performance of the two solid stages S200 as well as the liquid core stage L110 was as expected," he said. "We also had another experimental module in this mission that is the unmanned crew module test to understand the re-entry characteristics. That also worked extremely well and the crew module has splashed down as expected in Bay of Bengal," he said. Radhakrishnan thanked the entire team for making the project possible and added "with the completion of the development of the high thrust cryogenic engine which has progressed very well, we expect to come back with a developmental flight of this vehicle LVM-3 in another two years."

This is the first time ISRO was carrying a payload weighing over three tonne. The national space agency's first space recovery experiment (SRE-1) module, launched by a PSLV rocket in January 2007, weighed only 555 kg and that too was not a crew module. Though it would take at least 10 years for India to send humans into space, this experiment has helped the space agency to test the module for safe return of humans from space, according to ISRO. While the heavy duty cryogenic engine is still under development in one of the ISRO labs at Mahendragiri in Tamil Nadu, today's attempt was to primarily study the atmospheric performance of GSLV Mk III in the first two stages. Once ISRO masters its GSLV Mk III, the country can save a massive amount of the foreign exchange it presently is spending to send its heavy communication satellites through other space agencies aboard. The heavy launch vehicle would also help India earn considerable foreign exchange by sending heavy satellites for other countries, in addition to the revenue PSLV rockets are already securing for ISRO's commercial arm Antrix Corporation Limited. This CARE module is expected to enhance ISRO's understanding on re-entry and parachute phases of crew module. The total budget of the experimental mission was Rs 155 crore, including the crew module, which cost Rs 15 crore.

Cryogenic engine for GSLV Mk-III rocket to be ready in 2 years 

 

The cryogenic engine for the latest GSLV Mark III rocket capable of carrying heavier payloads upto four tonnes, is expected to be ready within two years, ISRO Chairman K Radhakrishnan said here today. Announcing the success of the GSLV Mark-III (LVM3X/CARE) experimental mission from the Mission Control Centre here, he said the cryogenic engine was being developed at the Liquid Propulsion Systems Centre at Mahendragiri in Tirunelveli district of Tamil Nadu. The GSLV Mk III was today launched with active S200 and L110 propulsive stages and a passive cryogenic stage (C25) with dummy engine. Radhakrishnan also said ISRO was gearing up for the launch of another Indian Regional Navigational Satellites System (IRNSS) series satellite in the first week of March next year. The space agency has already launched three of the seven IRNSS series satellites. The system would make India join a select group of countries having their own navigation systems.

With an eye on manned space missions, ISRO today successfully tested the atmospheric re-entry of a crew module after its heaviest launch vehicle, GSLV Mark-III, blasted off from here.

Following is a list of launches made by ISRO on GSLV -- Vehicle Satellite Date Weight Result

GSLV-D1 GSAT-1            Apr 18,2001 1,540-kg Successful

GSLV-D2 GSAT-2            May 8, 2003 1,825-kg Successful

GSLV-F01 EDUSAT 

(GSAT-3)                         Sep 20, 2004 1,950-kg Successful

GSLV-F02 INSAT-4C       Jul 10, 2006 Unsuccessful

GSLV-F04 INSAT-4CR    Sep 2, 2007 2,130-kg Successful

GSLV-D3 GSAT-4           Apr 15, 2010 Unsuccessful

GSLV-F06 GSAT-5P       Dec 25, 2010 Unsuccessful

GSLV D5 GSAT-14        Jan 5, 2014 1, 982-kg Successful

GSLV-Mk-III                    Dec 18, 2014 3,735-kg Successful

PLANNING COMMISSION SLIPS TO HISTORY

It has commissioned 12 five-year plans and six annual plans involving fund outlays of over Rs 200 lakh crore in its 65-year-history, but the fabled Planning Commission is itself set to be history as the government gears up to replace it with a new-age institution in the new year. The Plan Panel, as it is commonly known as, was set up by a simple government resolution in March 1950 and has withstood many political and economic upheavals, as also some occasional controversies, including those related to its poverty estimates as also about a huge toilet renovation bill and foreign tour expenses of its last Deputy Chairman. It was a decisive mandate for a change of government during a politically and economically supercharged 2014 that finally led to its epitaph being written. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced in his first Independence Day speech this August that the Commission would get a replacement, while speculation is rife that the name and structure of the new body may be revealed on the Republic Day next month. In the process, most of the work at Yojana Bhavan, a few blocks away from the Parliament, continues to revolve around the consultation and other procedures related to the setting up of the new institution, which the government wants to create as a more practical symbol of 'cooperative federalism'. Experts and insiders say 2014 would certainly be one of the most important years in the history of Planning Commission, for not just being the last year of its existence, but also for being a period when this socialist-era institution had to struggle for a makeover to remain relevant in a market-driven economy. While it went through numerous operational makeovers over the years of its existence, ranging from being a simple planning body to a powerful 'control-commission' to a fiscal decentralisation instrument to an official think-tank, the voices had begun to grow louder for an overhaul even before the new government took charge in May 2014. The defeat of the last UPA government, however, led to immediate resignation of the Commission's Deputy Chairman, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who was at the helm of affairs for a decade, and other members in the last week of May. Immediately thereafter, rumours began surfacing on the possible names of persons to head the Panel and continued till the big announcement was made by the Prime Minister, who happens to be the Chairman of the Commission, on August 15 about the end of the road for Yojana Ayog. Subsequently, a consultation process was launched for suggestions on the structure and role of the new body, while a lot many names, including the widely reported 'Niti Ayog' or Policy Commission have also come up in the public domain. There is no official word as yet on the final structure, role or name of the new body.

It has been suggested that instead of a "control Commission", the new body should play the role of a catalyst and provide a platform to the Centre, states and experts to discuss issues and come out with the best solutions. To take Chief Ministers on board, Modi also called a meeting earlier this month to deliberate on the structure of the new body, where most state leaders were said to be in favour of decentralisation of power and planning through it. Congress-ruled states, however, had reservations about dismantling an institution which was set up by the first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and they suggested restructuring of the existing body, rather than a complete replacement. Incidentally, Nehru himself is said to have faced resistance to the idea of setting up of the Planning Commission, but it went on to become a major platform for successive governments to formulate and push forward economic policies and other development plans. It was set up initially as part of the government's declared objectives to promote a rapid rise in the standard of living of the people by efficient exploitation of resources, increasing production and offering employment opportunities. The Commission was charged with the responsibility of assessing all resources of the country, augmenting deficient resources, formulating plans for the most effective and balanced utilisation of resources and determining priorities. The first Five-year Plan was launched in 1951 with total outlay of little over Rs 2,000 crore and two subsequent five-year plans were formulated till 1965, when there was a break because of the Indo-Pakistan Conflict. Two successive years of drought, devaluation of currency, a general rise in prices and erosion of resources disrupted the planning process and after three Annual Plans between 1966 and 1969, the fourth Five-year plan was started in 1969. The Eighth Plan could not take off in 1990 due to the fast changing political situation at the Centre and the years 1990-91 and 1991-92 were treated as Annual Plans. The Eighth Plan was finally launched in 1992. For the first eight Plans, the emphasis was on a growing public sector with massive investments in basic and heavy industries, but since the launch of the 9th Plan in 1997, the emphasis on the public sector has become less pronounced and the current thinking on planning in the country, in general, is that it should increasingly be of an indicative nature. The new year 2015 would again be keenly awaited by the experts to witness what replaces this long-standing structure and what changes does it bring to the way plans and policies are formulated and implemented by the new government.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 18 & REVIEW

CLOSING SESSION BETTER

Nifty                               8030  -38

Nifty fell sharply in the opening hour trading below 8000 mark too and slowly recovered thereafter and trimmed the losses and fell for 8 out of last 9 trading sessions. Nifty closed below  100DMA and needs to go above that level by weekend to remain stable.  Stop loss for Nifty short positions may be trailed to 8200(on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8070,, 8110 and find support at 7990, 7950 for Thursday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  could remain subdued in the forenoon and recover towards close. US Fed (FOMC) meet outcome could influence the opening.

VILLAGE IS SMALL...DEPOSITS VERY HIGH

Kerala's nearly Rs 90,000 crore of NRI deposits, which is highest in the country, pales into oblivion when compared to the over Rs 1,000 crore that the members of this sleepy Dharmaj village near here cumulatively have in their banks. The tiny Dharmaj village in Anand district, about 70 km from here, has a population of only 11,333 but has as many as 13 banks. For the past several decades, NRIs in this village have been depositing money in banks and post offices and the kitty today has grown to over Rs 1,000 crore, making it one of the richest villages in the country and with the highest NRI deposits. Deputy general manager of Vadodara division of Central Bank of India, R N Hirve told PTI that NRIs of this village prefer to park their money in banks which are mostly state-run banks and therefore the deposit in the banks have now cumulatively run into more than Rs 1,000 crore. Rich flow of funds has made Dharmaj one of the richest and most literate villages not only in the state but across the country. The over 3,000 Patidar families live life king size and zip past in swanky cars and almost every family in the village has a member sending in the money for several decades. There as many as 1,700 families hailing from this village settled in Britain, around 300 families in the US, 160 in New Zealand, 200 in Canada, and 60 in Australia, among others, taking the total number of families staying abroad to around 3,120.

Bank of Baroda leads in such funds with its branch in this village having about Rs 125 crore, followed by Dena Bank with Rs 100 crore. As many as 13 major nationalised banks, private banks and a cooperative bank are located in this village. The other banks include State Bank of India, Bank of India, Central Bank of India, Allahabad Bank, Canara Bank, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, PNB, Corporation Bank and Dharmaj People's Cooperative Bank. Dena Bank branch manager Arvind Vaghela said his bank was the first to open a branch in the village, that too way back in 1959. It can be noted that Kerala, with tens of lakhs of its citizens living in foreign countries, has been the largest beneficiary of NRI deposits which had crossed Rs 84,000 crore last fiscal and is estimated to have sniffed at Rs 90,000 crore this fiscal. With over USD 69 billion remittances in 2013, the country has been the largest beneficiary of the diaspora money, following by China with over USD 64 billion. According to World Bank estimates, this year the NRI remittances will easily cross USD 70 billion. As per industry estimates, as much as USD 110 billion worth NRI funds are in various banks.

OIL PRICES FURTHER DOWN

Oil suffered fresh losses in Asia today, sinking to new multi-year lows as dealers watch Russia's ruble crisis and await the latest US crude supply report, analysts said. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for January delivery sank USD 1.16 in mid-morning trade to USD 54.77 while Brent crude for February fell 82 cents to USD 59.19 on the contract's first day of trading. Brent for January finished down USD 1.20 at USD 59.86 in London, after slipping below the psychological USD 60 for the first time since July 2009. Oil investors are closely watching the situation in crude producer Russia after the ruble on Tuesday crashed to new record lows against the dollar, losing some 20 percent in value. The slump came despite the country's central bank hiking interest rates from 10.5 per cent to 17 per cent. Russia's economy has been battered by slumping oil prices and Western sanctions over Moscow's support for Ukrainian separatists. "Should oil prices fall further, then worries may increasingly grow among Russian corporates and households," Credit Agricole said in a commentary. With demand for the safer US dollar in Russia, "authorities may have to consider measures to cap expectations of bank runs", the French lender said. Dealers will next focus on the release later today of a US oil supply report for clues about demand in the world's top crude consumer, analysts said. Analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal tipped reserves to have fallen by 1.9 million barrels on average in the week to December 12. However, oil prices are expected to stay at multi-year lows owing to weak global demand and the OPEC oil cartel's refusal to cut output despite a global supply glut.

INDIVIDUAL WEALTH DOUBLES

Faster economic growth will help individuals' wealth in India to more than double to Rs 514 trillion over the next five years, while growing at an annual rate of about 15 per cent, a new report said today.
Interestingly, almost half of the individual wealth is kept in physical assets including real estate and gold. "Total individual wealth is expected more than double to Rs 514 trillion in FY19 from Rs 257 trillion crore in FY14, registering a CAGR of 14.86 per cent," Karvy Private Wealth said in its report released here. The study takes into account wealth held by individuals across financial assets and physical assets, including real estate, gold, diamond, silver and platinum.
The personal holding of gold in the country is around 22,000 tonne, the largest in the world. As of end FY14, the total individual wealth stood at Rs 257.4 trillion, an increase of 27.5 per cent over the past year. The wealth held by individuals in financial assets has grown by 84 per cent during the past five years. Total wealth of individuals in financial assets stood at Rs 134.7 trillion (52.3 per cent of the total) and in physical assets at Rs 122.7 trillion (47.7 per cent) as of FY14. "Wealth with individual investors is expected to grow more rapidly in the next five years, riding on faster economic growth," Karvy Private Wealth Chief Executive Sunil Mishra told reporters. "The new government has undertaken a lot of initiatives to revive the economy and make it among the fastest growing ones in the world," he added. "Individuals' wealth in financial assets is expected to double in the next four years at a CAGR of 18.3 per cent, while wealth in physical assets is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10 per cent in the next five years," the report said. Due to a slowdown in the economy in the last few years, the household savings rate was skewed towards physical assets such as real estate and gold. The ratio of physical to financial assets had reached an all time low of 31 per cent in FY12, it said. "With the turnaround coming in the economy we expect this to return to 50:50 in the next five years," the report said, while adding that India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.5 per cent by 2018 and macroeconomic revival may see beginning of biggest bull run. Direct equity will become the single largest asset class contributing to individual wealth in year ending March 2015, overtaking fixed deposits, Karvy said. "We expect a 25 per cent CAGR on the equity markets and look at the Sensex touching 1,00,000 level by 2020," the report said, adding in FY14, individual wealth held in bank FDs stood at Rs 27.91 trillion crore and has grown by 17 per cent as compared to FY13. Total individual wealth in insurance stands at Rs 22.12 trillion in FY14, the report said, and pointing out that Indians allocate a lot less of their wealth to equity at 13 per cent compared to global allocation at 25 per cent. "This is projected to increase with more retail participation seen in the equity market s flocking to reap the benefits of the long-term growth.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 17 & REVIEW

SECOND HALF BETTER

Nifty                               8068  -152

After opened with lower gap and Nifty went down further to close nearer to day’s low level with a loss of more than 150 points and closed well below 8100 mark. Nifty closed nearer to 100DMA and if it does not take support around this level, further fall can be expected.  Stop loss for Nifty short positions may be trailed to 8250(on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8110,, 8145 and find support at 8025, 7990 for Wednesday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market is expected to generally  recover in Second half of the day.

INFLATION IN UK @ 12 YEAR LOW

Britain's annual inflation rate slid to a 12-year low of 1.0 per cent in November, driven down by tumbling oil prices, official data showed today. The 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from a rate of 1.3 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement. "Food and motor fuel prices, which have historically been upward contributors to the CPI 12-month rate, are currently reducing it by 0.4 percentage points," the ONS noted. Oil suffered another dizzying plunge today, with benchmark Brent North Sea crude sliding to a five-year low under USD 60 a barrel as markets were rocked by shrinking Chinese manufacturing and fresh turmoil in Russia, traders said. "Inflation has been steadily falling over the second half of 2014, and the recent sharp fall in the oil price has accelerated this trend," said Ben Brettell, senior economist at stockbrokers Hargreaves Lansdown. Britain's economy is outperforming the neighbouring eurozone but in recent months market analysts have raised concerns over the impact of falling inflation on British wage growth. With many workers failing to win salary increases, the government has seen tax receipts shrink, hindering its bid to shrink the deficit.

SENSEX POSTS BIGGEST FALL IN 2014

The benchmark BSE Sensex tanked 538.12 points, its worst single-day drop this year, to slip below 27,000-mark while the wider Nifty crashed below 8,100 level due to capital outflows amid weak economic data and sharp falls in global markets. A weakening rupee which slumped to a 13-month low and tumbling global markets on renewed concerns over growth as crude oil prices crahsed to fresh multi-years low, accelerated selling activity on the bourses, brokers said.
Meanwhile, the rupee tumbled by 64 paise, or 1 per cent, to hit a 13-month low of 63.58 against the dollar (intra-day).
Globally, Brent crude slumped to nearly USD 59 for the first time since 2009.
The 30-share Sensex closed at 26,781.44 points, down by 538.12 points, or 1.97 per cent. Today's drop is the biggest since September 3, 2013 when the BSE index tumbled by 651 points. 

After cracking the 8,100-mark, the NSE Nifty touched the day's low of 8,052.60 before settling down by 152 points, or 1.85 per cent, at 8,067.60.
India's trade deficit widened to one-and-a-half year high of USD 16.86 billion in November due to over six-fold jump in gold imports even as exports grew by 7.27 per cent. Among the Sensex constituents, 27 ended lower.
Sesa Sterlite was the biggest loser among 30 Sensex stocks. It slumped by 7.77 pc, followed by Dr Reddy (6.32 pc), Hindalco (5.67 pc) and SBI (4.66 pc).
The stocks of Tata Power (4.59 pc), ICICI Bank (4.30 pc) NTPC (3.20 pc), ITC Ltd (3.13 pc), Tata Steel (2.82 pc) and HDFC Ltd (3.11 pc) also dropped.
A weak Asian trend after data showed industrial acitivity is contracting in China and lower opening in Europe dampened the trading sentiments, brokers said.
Foreign Portfolio Investors sold shares worth a net Rs 455.72 crore yesterday as per provisional data. The BSE small-cap index lost 3.36 per cent and the mid-cap index fell 2.96 per cent.