WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

A WEEK WITH WIDE RANGE 

During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Aardra in Gemini  to Makha in Leo.

Sun transits in  Jyeshta  in Scorpio.

Mercury   transits  in    Jyeshta constellation in  Scorpio  .

Venus transits in   Jyeshta in Scorpio and Moola in Sagittarius.

Mars , exalted,  transits in   Uttarashadha and Sravana  constellations in  Capricorn .  

Saturn transits in  Scorpio  in Visakha constellation and Leo Navamsa.

Jupiter would get into retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015 and  transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in    Pisces  navamsa  Jupiter retro could affect Finance sector stocks. .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

Nifty range of 1^st December and 2^nd December,  the astro reference range for December, is 8617 and 8505  and Nifty can be considered bullish above the high of the range(8617) and can be considered bearish below the low of the range(8505) and can go upto 8750 on the upperside or come down upto 8375 on the lower side, in case of breakout or breakdown of the above range. The above range can be expected to be broken during the week.  In view of the huge run up recently and Jupiter retrograde motion, Bearish bias is more likely, which would be confirmed only on  a breakdown below 8500.

Jupiter trine Sun could be positive for Public sector banks.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (08.12.2014 to 12.12.2014) …  

NIFTY :: 8538 (-50) (Reversal of Short Term Up Trend below 8500. )

Market pressed a Pause button after Six weeks of rally. While Nifty fell by about 0.50%, sectoral performance was mixed with Banks and Realty gaining and Oil and Gas and IT losing . Mid cap stocks too performed with Mid cap index gaining smartly. While RBI did not cut rates, it appeared to have only delayed and admits that it can not be denied in case macro continue to improve. Banks continued their rally last week as Bank profitability improves due to higher Bond yield. Current parliament session and Budget session would be crucial for reforms as certain important bills are to be passed. Insurance Bill, GST Bill are the important ones which the market is looking at. Crude Oil continues to remain weak which is very positive for the economy. Overall sentiment is positive and any significant correction in market could be utilized to buy quality stocks for long term.

Bank Nifty traded in a narrow range and a range break out can be expected. IT index witnessed a huge down move last week as pivot stocks such as Infy and TCS fell sharply. Infy’s fall can be attributed to it becoming ex bonus and selling from bonus stripping investors. Further fall in IT stocks could make them attractive for investment.

Present positive  Macro factors would have their positive effect on corporate earnings with a lag effect and the market is ahead of fundamentals. Falling crude and commodity prices coupled with lower interest cost (rate cut to be announced) would all help improve corporate earnings next year and market appears to have largely factored them in their prices. All in all, Stock market is a barometer of the economy and discounts future in advance. Despite these positive factors, market appears to be  generally fully priced and stock picking is the only way to perform in the market. Next Big event is Budget and big bang reforms can be expected in the budget.

Nifty is once again above all short term moving averages .  However, in view of the overbought position, traders need to be vigilant and high degree of caution with proper risk management is necessary. Short term correction is only a matter of time and leveraged positions need to be properly protected.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8460, 8190, 8010 and 7440 respectively and would

act as supports / resistances.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 21.81 which is about 21% above the long term PE multiple.  Expected target for the year was 8500 (as being reported in this column for the last Four months ) has been reached  ahead of time. Next big events are Government’s reform process (GST Bill) and Budget.

Strong long term support would be around 7450 level and Medium term support is 8000. Short term support is at 8500 / 8475 and Nifty would become weak only

on a close below 8500/ 8475 and present short term uptrend could come under threat. ..

Technical Levels ::

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face

resistance at 8630,  8725, 8815 and find support at 8445, 8355, 8265.

Minor resistances may be found at 8575, 8605, 8625, 8650  and minor supports at 8500, 8470, 8450, 8425.

For short term Nifty is Neutral with bullish bias  and would become bearish only if it closes below 8500.

Breakout level for the week is 8660 and break down level for the week is 8475. Break out level for December is 8700 and Break down level for December is 8200. Unless 8700 is decisively crossed, further uptrend for December is unlikely.

Advice for Traders ::

After Six weeks’ of uptrend , a pause was seen with Nifty sliding by about 0.50%. However, broader markets were strong and bullish momentum continues. Parliament session outcome and passage or otherwise  of important bills could impact market movement. If the last week’s downward is to gather momentum and continue Nifty should close below 8500. On the other hand, if it closes above 8625, further uptrend can be expected. Presently, Nifty is in neutral mode and could go either way. Scrip specific approach is most preferred in this market.