MODI VISITS BE REFLECTED IN RESULTS @ GROUND LEVEL

Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan today described Prime Minister Narendra Modi as being "ahead of us" but said his visits abroad need to be backed up with "action on the ground". "I think it is changing positively," he remarked on the world view of India in the aftermath of Modi's foreign visits. He is a "very articulate spokesman for India", he added. "What we need to do is back up his visits with action on the ground which reinforces the good impression that is created," Rajan told NDTV. The RBI governor, who has often been seen as not toeing government line on the monetary policy and other issues, acknowledged Prime Minister's initiative to market India as an investment destination but said the message of a strong Indian economy has to be backed up with action on the ground. "I think he (Modi) is ahead of us. So we have to come up to speed in a number of dimensions. For example if the idea of India as a strong economy is sold outside and they come in, and they don't find the ease of doing business, the permissions, etc. people aren't (happy)," he said. He said it is known abroad that "there are some issues that they have to deal with, but it should not be worse than their expectations. "So I think we need to steadily improve the reality on the ground, this attempt to improve the business environment which is proceeding on many fronts is I think a great step in the right direction," he said.
Rajan said the relationship between the RBI and the government has been strong, but added that he did not always agree with the finance minister's point of view. "Otherwise, the public should start getting worried that the central bank is becoming too acquiescent. In a sense we have to be a gatekeeper and sometimes say no!" he said.

COUNTRY RECORDED 14% DEFICIT RAINFALL

Rainfall in the country was 14 per cent lower than normal during the Southwest monsoon that officially ended today with a double-digit rain deficit being recorded for the second consecutive year causing drought in some states.

This year's summer rains were particularly affected by the El-Nino phenomenon with the deficiency for the four-month long season being more or less in line with the forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department(IMD) which predicted 12 per cent deficit. Last year, there was a 12 per cent deficit.
Around 55 per cent of the country, however, received "normal" rainfall, the IMD said.
The official period for the Southwest Monsoon season in India is between June 1 and September 30. "Rainfall in Southwest monsoon was 14 per cent deficient. We are satisfied that our Long Range Forecast have turned out as per our prediction. This was for the first time that we made a prediction of more than 10 per cent deficiency," IMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore said. IMD had made a forecast of 88 per cent rainfall with plus or minus 4 per cent.
Country wise, Northwest India has recorded a deficiency of 17 per cent, followed by 16 per cent in Central India, 15 per cent in Southern Peninsula and 8 per cent in East and North-east India. Several parts of the country also witnessed a drought like situation. For instance the deficiency in Marathwada ended at 40 per cent, but situation has particularly turned grim where the overall deficiency now stands at around 45 per cent. Incidentally, West Rajasthan, which is usually known to be arid, has received 46 per cent more rainfall this year. The season this year witnessed rainfall, which started with excess rainfall for the first month, but ended with a deficiency in the remaining three months. The monsoon, which hit the Kerala coast a tad late on June 5, four days after the official onset of rainy season in India. June saw 16 per cent excess rain this season. However, July witnessed deficiency of 16 per cent. It further grew to 22 and 24 per cent for August and September respectively.
Some of the states that have observed very poor rains are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana and Maharashtra, Skymet, a rival of IMD said. With weak monsoon, India's food grain production is also projected to drop by 1.78 per cent to 124.05 million tonnes in the 2015-16 kharif season due to poor monsoon and drought-like situation in some states like Karnataka. Food grain output was 126.31 million tonnes (MT) in the kharif (summer) season of the 2014-15 crop year (July-June). As the season ended with a deficit, as on September 23, ninety-one major water reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC) filled to the extent of only 62 per cent to its total capacity of 253.388 billion cubic meter (bcm). 

EQUITY INVESTORS LOSS @ Rs.3 LAKH CRORES

Stock market investors have become poorer by nearly Rs 3 lakh crore so far this year as the recent selling in equities pulled down the valuation of all listed firms on BSE to Rs 95.40 lakh crore. Total investor wealth, measured in terms of cumulative market value of all listed stocks, fell by Rs 2.95 lakh crore to Rs 95.40 lakh crore this year. In 2014, market investors added a whopping Rs 28 lakh crore taking the valuation of all listed firms to Rs 98.36 lakh crore. Last year also saw investor wealth hitting Rs 100 lakh crore mark. Markets have been volatile for past couple of quarters on weak corporate earnings and negative global cues. The benchmark BSE Sensex has lost 1,635.92 points or 5.94 per cent to 25,863.50 so far in 2015. The index hit an all-time high of 30,024.74 on March 4, 2015, however, the later half of the year saw the gauge giving up most of its gains and subsequently touched a one-year low level of 24,833.54 on September 8. Sensex crashed by 1,624.51 points on August 24 -- its biggest ever single-day fall -- wiping out over Rs 7 lakh crore from investors' wealth on a sharp global sell-off triggered by a Chinese rout. Concerns over economic slowdown in China and currency devaluation have dampened investors sentiment. In 2014, the Sensex rose by 6,328.74 points or 30 per cent, the highest annual gain since 2009 when it had rallied by 7,817 points. Foreign investors have pulled out about Rs 5,000 crore from the capital markets since beginning of this month. Last month, the net outflow from equities was Rs 17,428 crore. That was the highest net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in a single month since 1997. Since beginning of the year, FPIs have made a net investment of Rs 23,961 crore in equities and Rs 37,654 crore in debt markets.

Scrip specific Movement

WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

for Week :: (21.09.2015 to 25.09.2015)

NIFTY :: 7982    (+213)

Nifty gained about 2.50 % after FED unchanged the rates.

20 DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 7845, 8234, 8252 and 8394  respectively and would act as supports / resistances. Nifty is trading  below  most of   the  averages  which is a matter of  concern.

While Nifty continues to trade below   the  200 DMA and 50 DMA too is  below   200 DMA (Death  Cross) suggesting that the Bearish  trend is   in    tact.

Technical Levels ::

Bullish above 8075 with resistance at 8150, 8225, 8300

Bearish below 7900 with Supports at 7825, 7750, 7675.

Breakout level for the week is 8100 and the Breakdown level      for the week is 7700..... 

Advice for Traders :

Medium term would once again turn bullish only if Nifty is able sustain above 8550 for about Two weeks. Nifty would face  resistance around 8250, above which it will have real bullishness and has strong support around 7200 too.

Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week. Long  positions may be considered  as long as it maintains above the Last week’s High.

Planetary Position

Moon would be transiting  from  Moola  1st  Pada  in Sagittarius to Dhanishta  2nd Pada in Capricorn.

Sun transits in  Uttara 3rd Pada in Leo  to Uttara 4 th Pada in Virgo.

Mercury   transits  in Hastha 4th Pada to  . Hastha 3 rd Pada.  Mercury turns Retrograde from 17^th September till 9^th October 2015. There would be possibility of miscommunication as Mercury rules communication.

Venus transits in Direct motion  in  Aslesha in 3^rd   Pada to Aslesha 3^rd   Pada in Cancer. .

Mars transits in  Makha 2^nd  Pada in Virgo  to Makha 2 nd    Pada.  In Leo .  .

Saturn moves into Direct motion and transits in   Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign in 1^st Pada  and in Leo Navamsa .

Jupiter ,, transits in  Leo in  Pubba 1st Pada in Leo.Navamsa.

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

5 BJP RULED STATES OCCUPY TOP 4 SLOTS

BJP-ruled Gujarat is the best place in the country to do business, says the World Bank's ranking on ease of doing business in states, a list that has the party-ruled states occupying four of the top five slots. Andhra Pradesh, ruled by BJP-ally TDP, is the second best state, followed by Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan - all having BJP governments. These rankings were provided in the report titled 'Assessment of State Implementation of Business Reforms' which was prepared by World Bank in association with the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), KPMG, CII and Ficci. The exercise is aimed at promoting competition among states with a view to improve business climate to attract domestic as well as foreign investments. The move would also help in improving India's overall ranking in the global Doing Business Study. India has been placed at 142nd position among 182 nations. Overall, World Bank said India is a difficult place to do business and concerted action and reforms are needed on several fronts to improve its ranking in the global 'Doing Business Index'. "The assessment recognises the fact that most states have already embarked on ambitious reform programmes or expanded their ongoing reform efforts," Additional Secretary in DIPP, Shatrughna Singh said. The ranking of 32 states and union territories was based on eight specified parameters which include setting up of business, allotment of land, labour reforms and procedure for environmental clearance. The parameters also include infrastructure, procedure for registration for tax purposes and inspections for compliance of various norms. At the bottom of the ladder in the index were Mizoram, Jammu and Kashmir, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. "What this report does very well is to provide a roadmap for states serious about improving their business environment and creating jobs," World Bank country director Onno Ruhl said. 

INFLATION FURTHER CAME DOWN

Deflationary trend continued for the 10th month in a row with inflation plunging to a historic low of (-)4.95 per cent in August on cheaper fuel and vegetables, putting pressure on RBI to cut interest rate.

The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was (-)4.05 per cent in July. It has been in the negative zone since November 2014. In August 2014, inflation was 3.85 per cent. However, onion and pulses turned costlier with inflation at 65.29 per cent and 36.40 per cent respectively during August, as per official data released today.
Overall, the food basket inflation remained in negative territory for second month in a row at (-)1.13 per cent. For vegetables, it declined to (-)21.21 per cent, helped by potato at (-)51.71 per cent.
Inflation rate in fuel and power segment was (-)16.50 per cent, while that in manufactured products was (-)1.92 per cent in August.
Besides pulses and onion, the food items which became dearer in August are eggs, meat and fish (3.30 per cent), milk (2.08 per cent) and wheat (2.05 per cent).
The inflation data for June has been revised to (-)2.13 per cent, as compared to provisional estimates of (-)2.40 per cent.
The Reserve Bank mostly tracks the Consumer Price Index- based inflation for its policy decision, and its next review is due on September 29.
The CPI or retail inflation data is expected later in the day. CPI in July recorded a low of 3.78 per cent.
As RBI wanted more clarity over inflation numbers in the months to come, it kept the key rate unchanged in its monetary policy review on August 4.  

WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

RECOVERY MAY CONTINUE...

 

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (14.09.2015 to     18.09.2015) …  

NIFTY :: 7769    (+134)

Nifty gained more than 1.50 % after making a lower low on Tuesday at 7540

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 7957, 8216, 8274 and 8401  respectively and would act as supports / resistances. Nifty is trading  below  all   the  averages  which is a matter of  concern.

While Nifty continues to trade below   the  200 DMA and 50 DMA too is  below   200 DMA (Death  Cross) suggesting that the Bearish  trend is   in    tact.

Technical Levels ::

Bullish above 7875 with resistance at 7950, 8025, 8100

Bearish below 7700 with Supports at 7625, 7550, 7475.

Breakout level 7950, Breakdown level 7500

Advice for Traders ::

Medium term would once again turn bullish only if Nifty is able sustain above 8550 for about Two weeks. Nifty would face  resistance around 8100, above which it will have real bullishness and has strong support around 7500 too.

Planetary Position...

Moon would be transiting  from  Uttara 3rd  Pada  in Leo to Visakha 3 rd Pada in Libra.

Sun transits in  Uttara 1st Pada in Leo   to Uttara 2^nd Pada in Virgo.

Mercury   transits  in Hastha 4th Pada to   . Hastha 4th Pada.  Mercury turns Retrograde from 17^th September till 9^th October 2015. There would be possibility of miscommunication as Mercury rules communication.

Venus transits in Direct motion  in  Aslesha in 2nd  Pada to Aslesha 2^nd  Pada..

Mars transits in  Aslesha 4 th  Pada in Cancer to Makha 1^st   Pada.  In Leo.  .

Saturn moves into Direct motion and transits in   Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign in 1^st Pada  and in Leo Navamsa .

Jupiter ,, transits in  Leo in Makha constellation in 4^th    Pada  in Cancer   Navamsa. To  Pubba 1st Pada in Leo.Navamsa.

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

CHINESE HOLIDAY CHEERS MARKETS

European stocks shot higher today as investors enjoyed a respite from volatile Chinese markets being closed for a long holiday weekend and took cheer from hints of more central bank stimulus. London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares climbed 1.45 per cent to stand at 6,171.44 points, Paris's CAC 40 index jumped 1.8 per cent to 4,637.21 and in Frankfurt the DAX 30 soared 2.27 per cent to 10,276.17. A rally on Wall Street yesterday on upbeat US data also helped improve sentiment in European trading, as did calm on Asian markets. "At least for a few days, concerns over China can be put to one side while the country closes its exchanges to celebrate seventy years since the end of World War II," said CMC Markets UK analyst Jasper Lawler. Meanwhile the European Central Bank, as expected, kept its main rate at a record low 0.05 per cent today. However, analysts were looking more for signals that it could step up stimulus if necessary. Beyond causing panic in stock markets in recent weeks, slower growth in China -- the world's number two economy -- has led to drops in commodity prices and a rebound in the euro that are complicating the ECB's efforts to combat deflation and restore growth. The ECB acknowledged inflation could turn negative again temporarily, and the bank cut its forecasts for inflation and growth. ECB chief Mario Draghi said the bank could step up or extend its stimulus programme that is buying 60 billion euros of sovereign and corporate bonds per month. "The asset purchase programme provides sufficient flexibility in terms of adjusting the size, composition and duration", said Draghi at a news conference. It was "intended to run until the end of September 2016, or beyond, if necessary," he added. The euro, which had been holding around USD 1.1220, fell more than a cent to below USD 1.1120 immediately after Draghi's comments. European stock markets also shot up further after Draghi spoke. "Following the wild sell-off in the equity complex, the central banks are naturally expected to remain fully supportive of the financial markets," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya at London Capital Group, who put an increase in US interest rates to December at the earliest. In corporate action, shares in low-cost airline EasyJet soared 5.0 per cent to 1,756 pence after it raised its full year pre-tax profit forecast to a record 675-700 million pounds (USD 1.03-1.07 billion).