The
ruble hit a historic low today as the dollar climbed past the 80.1
rubles level for the first time, exceeding the levels seen during the
shock plunge of the Russian currency in December 2014. After a day of
relative calm, the ruble resumed its downward spiral, breaking
through the previous record low it hit on December 16, 2014, as oil
prices, key to Russia's economy, test 12-year lows. The ruble was
also trading at 87.6 against the euro as Asian and European markets
suffered another rout. Gas and oil account for more than a half of
the Russian budget revenues. "The market will be generally
driven by global economic sentiment, which does not exactly look
hopeful at the moment," Alfa Bank said in a note to clients
today. In December 2014, the Russian currency crashed to
unprecedented lows, trading at over 80 rubles to the dollar and 100
to the euro. Western sanctions over the Kremlin's support for the
separatist insurgency in Ukraine have all but closed access to
foreign borrowing for Russia and exacerbated the crisis. The
worsening economic outlook amid falling oil prices presents a serious
challenge for President Vladimir Putin, whose pact with voters has
been based on years of economic stability and relative prosperity.
The International Monetary Fund yesterday downgraded its forecast for
Russia, predicting that the country's economy would contract by 1 per
cent this year. The IMF warned that slower Chinese growth, a stronger
US dollar, the collapse in oil prices and political turmoil could all
wreak further havoc in struggling economies like Russia's. Prime
Minister Dmitry Medvedev has said that while the government will seek
to honour its social obligations, it will have to "considerably
cut" spending. Igor Nikolayev, director of the FBK Grant
Thornton Institute of Strategic Analysis, said the plunge in the
ruble did not bode well for the economy as it exacerbated financial
risk, leading to lower investment. "Even an ordinary person
already understands - if the ruble falls, prices will grow and life
will become harder."
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