RAJAN ON CONTROLLING PRICES
Known for his strong monetarist approach and hawkish view on
inflation, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan today defended the rate hikes
earlier this week and ruled out adopting any unconventional tools to tackle
price rise. At a Town Hall meeting with school students here this morning,
Rajan when asked whether he would be more innovative in combating inflation or
will stick to tools adopted by his predecessors of raising interest rates, said
he does not have any wonder tool to fight the price rise menace. "Do we
have any new or wonderful tool (for inflation) or can we invent one? I think
problems emerge when central bankers get overly innovative in the tools that they
will use. "So, I think its better to be a little boring and to do what is
conventional because conventional works. If you try the unconventional you may
create a whole set of new problems," told the meeting organised by the
'Newspaper In Education', a children's publication from the Times Group.
"One reason for high inflation is supply-side mismatches and other is too
much demand. Now, there are many ways of constraining demand. Less spending by
the government is a way of constraining demand. Another way is to make demand
match supply, which is to raise interest rates," Rajan said. He, however,
was quick to added that to accelerate growth, the central bank is taking newer
steps. "We are trying our best to improve health of the economy and we
will do whatever it takes to improve that. As far as growth goes we are
addressing it through a variety of reforms which make finance easier and more
widely available but I hope the answer for us in the demand-side is doing
something different from what we are doing now," he said. He further said
as far as the current situation in the economy goes we have both supply-side
problem -- large projects have been stalled, and also on the food side there
are discrepancies in distribution. The Governor who took over charge last
September has raised interest rates by 75 basis points in three out of his four
monetary policy announcements, citing elevated inflation as a major cause of
concern. When asked what the central bank is trying to achieve with the recent
hikes in key lending rates, Rajan said it is to keep cost of money higher and
manage inflation expectations.
"Can hike in repo rate have some effect (on inflation)?
It works in two ways: one, as inflation comes down by keeping the cost of money
higher, I think repo rate has an effect. And, second is by setting inflation
expectations," Rajan said. "A lot of what central bank does is
managing expectations. If I tell you that I intent on keeping inflation
contained and I will do what it takes to keep inflation contained, eventually
people start to believe it." Rajan further said once people start
believing that a central bank is keeping inflation contained, they determine
the prices, whether selling now or later, which will moderate prices. "So,
inflation management is partly about expectations, partly about doing things
that affect the real cost of money, and I think we are trying to do both,"
the Governor concluded. When a student asked when our monetary policy will
determine the course of the world economy, as the US does now, he said, the
ideal situation is the one under which every major country takes into account
the impact of its actions on other countries. "I have been saying that the
US should worry about the effects of its policies on the rest of the world. So
if I stood by that, we should not be happy down the line when our policies
affect the rest of the world adversely. "We would like the world where
countries take into the account the effects of their polices on other countries
and do what is right rather than what is just right given the circumstances of
their country." He concluded by saying that "as we get bigger we will
be significant force in the world economy."
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