SELL ON RISE AS FURTHER DOWNSIDE POSSIBLE
General outlook for the week (06.01.2014 to 10.01.2014) ::
Planetary
Position :: During the current week Moon would be
transiting from Poorvabhadra in Aquarius to Bharani in Aries. Sun transits in Poorvashadha constellation in Sagittarius. Mercury transits in Uttarashadha in Sagittarius and Capricorn signs. Mars transits in Hastha constellation in Virgo. Saturn continues in Visakha constellation in Gemini navamsa. Jupiter transits in Retrograde motion (till 6th March 2014) in Gemini and presently in Aries Navamsa . Venus, in retro motion till 1st February 2014, transits in Uttarashadha constellations in Capricorn sign and moves to Sagittarius on 7th..Further, there is a Grand Square / T square operating involving Mars and Outer planets till 1st week of January and high degree of volatility is to be expected which was witnessed in the Secondhalf of the last week. Further , Nifty’s range from Monday to Wednesday can be considered as a reference range for the next Three weeks and Nifty could be considered Bullish above the High of the range and Bearish below the low of the range. . Further with both auspicious planets i.e., Jupiter and Venus being in retrograde motion, sustained upside too can not be expected.
transiting from Poorvabhadra in Aquarius to Bharani in Aries. Sun transits in Poorvashadha constellation in Sagittarius. Mercury transits in Uttarashadha in Sagittarius and Capricorn signs. Mars transits in Hastha constellation in Virgo. Saturn continues in Visakha constellation in Gemini navamsa. Jupiter transits in Retrograde motion (till 6th March 2014) in Gemini and presently in Aries Navamsa . Venus, in retro motion till 1st February 2014, transits in Uttarashadha constellations in Capricorn sign and moves to Sagittarius on 7th..Further, there is a Grand Square / T square operating involving Mars and Outer planets till 1st week of January and high degree of volatility is to be expected which was witnessed in the Secondhalf of the last week. Further , Nifty’s range from Monday to Wednesday can be considered as a reference range for the next Three weeks and Nifty could be considered Bullish above the High of the range and Bearish below the low of the range. . Further with both auspicious planets i.e., Jupiter and Venus being in retrograde motion, sustained upside too can not be expected.
Nifty
Outlook for Next Week :: 06.01.2014 to 10.01.2014 (Sell on Rise
)…
NIFTY
:: 6211(-103)
After
more than 7 trading sessions’ narrow movement, Nifty cracked on Thursday
afternoon and fell more than 2% from the high level to end the week with a loss
of more than 1.50% and it could not carry the gains of previous Two weeks.
Despite last week’s fall, Nifty has been moving in a narrow range of 6400 to 6000 for the last Six
weeks and is in a broad range of about 6%. Institutional participation was
subdued towards the end of December and can be expected to increase. Short term trend continues to remain neutral
with downside bias and closer to lower end of the range ie., 6200. While Medium and Long term is bullish, short
term trend has been oscillating in a narrow range with bullish / bearish bias
.. Market is hoping for a performing
Government in next elections and is factoring in the bullish sentiment. Hence,
it all depends on Election outcome for real direction to the market. However,
cautious bullishness prevails in the present market as midcap stocks too
started performing. Hence, any decent
correction in view of the short term bad news is an opportunity for long term /
medium term investors to buy quality stocks. Further, Q3 results season too
would be starting from Second week of January and scrip / sector specific
movement would be in focus. While Nifty made a new high for statistical
purpose, it would be in place in spirit only when it maintains above the
previous high. Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for
more than 4 years and is due for a powerful breakout sooner than later. Stock market discounts future in advance and
is ahead of economy and fundamentals atleast by Six months. and medium term
bullishness in markets presupposes
improving fundamentals. Nifty has been making higher bottoms and can be
expected to breakout and make higher tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for
Medium / long term. Traders should be ever vigilant to track short term
movements . Technically, Nifty is in a narrow range and major support at 6125
and resistance at 6325 (on close basis) and unless either of these levels is broken
decisively, it can be considered to be in neutral range Nifty is
above 200 DMA and 50 DMA and the 50DMa also has
crossed 200DMA and makes a clear case of
“Buy on Decline” with 200 DMA as stop loss.
.Any decent correction is an opportunity for medium / long term
investors and it is a clear case of “Buy
on Decline” long as it holds above 200
DMA, which is presently placed around 5900. As Nifty has registered a decline
in the first week of new derivative series, further fall too can be expected
before it rebounds after middle of the month. .
For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6290, 6370, 6450 and find support at 6130, 6055, 5975.
Nifty spot has strong support at 6125 and resistance at 6325. Nifty needs to decisively close below 6125 for a couple of days to sustain downward momentum. As Nifty has been moving in a narrow range for the last Six weeks, either a powerful breakout / breakdown is possible or it could remain in a narrow range for some more time to come.
Advice
for Traders :: Nifty registered decline in
the first week of new series and further decline is possible before a rebound. “Sell
on Rise” policy may be followed with 6325 as stop loss on close basis.
WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, : 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361, 6441, during the week.
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, : 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361, 6441, during the week.
Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire
week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa
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