VOLATILE MOVEMENTS
Inputs byDr.Bhuvanagiri Amaranatha SastryAstro Technical AnalystSaketha Consultants, Hyderabadsastry.saaketa@gmail.com09848014561 |
Nifty
Outlook for Next Week :: 20.01.2014 to 24.01.2014 (Short Term Range
6225 and 6350)…
NIFTY
:: 6262 (+91)
After Two weeks of fall, Nifty
gained about 1.50% last week , despite Friday’s fall of about 1%. While Nifty
gained, broader market has not been performing in view of negative market
breadth (adverse Advance Decline ratio). However, Nifty continues to remain within a
range (6125 and 6325) for the last Six weeks. RBI policy and Fed policy towards
month end could provide a directional move.. Short term trend continues to
remain neutral with upside bias and
closer to the upper end of the range
ie., 6325. While Medium and Long term is bullish, short term trend has
been oscillating in a narrow range with bullish / bearish bias . Further, market
moved up smartly in the last quarter of 2013 hoping for a pro market / pro
reform Government at the centre in the next election. Market is hoping for a
performing Government in next elections and is factoring in the bullish
sentiment. Hence, it all depends on Election outcome for real direction to the
market. If a market / economy friendly Government comes to power, Nifty
would surge sharply while a Government without clear mandate / a Government
following populist measures could bring down market sharply, which could be utilized
for long term buying. In view of the recent political developments, it appears
unlikely that the market would make another new high below Elections and
next course of market direction depends on election outcome. Scrip /
sector specific movement has been in
focus in view of Q3 results. Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600
to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a powerful breakout sooner
than later (after Elections). However, upside breakout is possible in view
of fundamentals, while steep downside can not be expected as it would be
compelling buy based on fundamentals. . Technically, Nifty is in a narrow range
and major support at 6125 and resistance at 6325 (on close basis) and
unless either of these levels is broken decisively, it can be considered to be
in neutral range Nifty is above 200 DMA and
50DMA is above 200DMA and makes a clear case of “Buy on Decline” with 200
DMA as stop loss. .Any decent correction is an opportunity for medium /
long term investors and it is a clear case of “Buy on Decline” long
as it holds above 200 DMA, which is presently placed around 5900.
For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6340, 6420, 6500 and find support at 6185, 6105, 6025.
Nifty spot has strong support at 6125 and resistance at 6325. Nifty needs to decisively close below 6125 for a couple of days to sustain downward momentum. However, based on the present chart pattern, it has immediate support at 6225 below which it could become weak for short term.
Advice
for Traders :: Nifty has been trading between 6325 and 6125 for the last Six
weeks and can be expected to remain sideways. However, scrip specific actions
is possible in view of the results. Strong support exists at 6225 below which
it can be expected to fall and strong resistance too exists around 6350.
WD
Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, : 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361, 6441, during the week.
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, : 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361, 6441, during the week.
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