Business
outlook of manufacturing sector is seen improving in the second
quarter of FY'15 on account of improved situation, production, order
book and capacity utilisation. According to a survey by Reserve Bank,
business outlook of manufacturing sector, as inferred from movements
in Business Expectation Index (BEI), there is an improvement for
second quarter of FY'15 at 114.7 against previous quarter's 111.1. It
was at 112.7 in the corresponding quarter a year ago. "The
improvement in BEI for the expectation quarter is mainly due to
improved optimism on overall business situation, production, order
books, capacity utilisation, imports, exports added with the reduced
pessimism on cost of finance, cost of raw material and the profit
margin," RBI survey said. Two per cent of the respondents felt
there will be increase in production during second quarter, but
employment will decline, suggesting a jobless growth. In another
survey on 'Consumer Confidence Survey: June 2014' a significant
improvement in Future Expectations Index (FEI) was seen at 122.9 for
June quarter due to increase in positive perceptions on all selected
parameters except prices. FEI was at 114.9 in the quarter ended March
2014. The Current Situation Index (CSI) in June quarter stood at the
threshold level (100.4) against March 2014 (99.9). Consumer
confidence survey shows successive improvement in income expectations
over the last four quarters, it said. "More than 60 per cent of
the respondents expected increase in income 12 months ahead," as
per the survey. Respondents reported higher confidence on spending.
About 25-30 per cent of respondents said it was a good time for
making outlays for big ticket purchases like house, durable goods and
gold. Survey on 'Inflation Expectations Survey of Households:
June-2014', said proportion of respondents seeing price rise by more
than current rate for overall prices and prices of all product groups
have decreased compared with previous round's survey for both 3-month
ahead period and 1-year ahead period. However, "the survey shows
that retired persons and daily workers have marginally higher level
of inflation expectations based on median inflation rates." It
said respondents from Chennai, Guwahati, Lucknow and Nagpur cities
have relatively higher expectation for inflation.
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