NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 12th & REVIEW

CAUTION @ HIGHER LEVELS

Inputs by

Dr.Bhuvanagiri Amaranatha Sastry

Astro Technical Analyst

Saketha Consultants, Hyderabad

sastry.saaketa@gmail.com

09848014561

http://www.saaketa.com/AstroTechnicals.aspx

Nifty closed at a record high with a gain of 3%. As Nifty closed clearly above 6750, short term bearishness is arrested and it has taken support at a crucial level of 6650, which can be regarded as a stop loss for any long positions. While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position , market can be expected to be relatively  be subdued  for most part of the day (mid session better) and caution is suggested at higher levels.

Nifty                               6859  +199

Review for Friday :: Record High for Sensex and Nifty..  Indices up by 3% …  !!!

Market appears to be preparing for a  very volatile week ahead. Nifty opened steady and went up steadily without any intraday retracement and closed at the highest levels with a gain of about 3%. Reason is obvious as market / economy  friendly NDA would be in power by next week end. 47 of Nifty stocks ended in the green but broader market was not so enthusiastic with Adance Decline ratio of about 1.5:1. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Reliance contributed more than 75 points to Nifyt’s gain. Bank Index was the biggest gainer among sectoral indices and barring Pharma which declined marginally, all other indices gained.

 

IDFC, ICICI Bank, Ambuja Cement, Axis Bank      remained major gainers  among Nifty stocks while Lupin, Dr Reddy and NMDC   remained the only  losers.

 

HDIL, Yes Bank, Unitech, Just Dial, CESC    remained major  gainers  among F&O stocks while Biocon, Arvind Milss, Glenmark, Divis LAb declined among F&O stocks. 

UNEXPECTED RALLY

Hopes of a stable government assuming power at the Centre after a week triggered an upsurge of buying in markets today, with BSE benchmark Sensex zooming by over 650 points to breach the crucial 23,000-level for the first time.

Frenzied buying was witnessed across sectors, mainly in banking, realty, power, refinery and capital goods. Share brokers attributed the surge to BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi exuding optimism in an interview last night that BJP will get a clear majority and form the "strongest and the most stable government" since Rajiv Gandhi's government in 1984. "As the elections D-day is approaching closer, markets are rallying on anticipation of a favorable outcome," said Dinesh Thakkar, Chairman & Managing Director of Angel Broking.
Riding on continuous foreign fund inflows, the 30-share Sensex hit a new record of 23,048.49. However, it settled the day a few notches lower at 22,994.23-- record closing high-- registering a rise of 650.19 points or 2.91 per cent, the biggest gain in almost eight months. On September 19 last year, the barometer soared over 684 points. The previous all-time high record for the Sensex was 22,939.31, recorded on April 25.

The 50-share Nifty of NSE set a historic high of 6,871.35 but ended the day at 6,858.80, a gain of 198.95 points or 2.99 per cent from its previous close. "Unmistakably, the focus remains on the approaching D-day, i.e. May 16 when the election verdict would be announced. But even before that, the market would react to exit polls numbers as it starts trickling in once the final phase of polling gets completed by May 12," said Sanjeev Zarbade, Vice President, Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities. ICICI Bank at 6.63 per cent was the best performer. Tata Power was the next best 5.57 per cent, Hindalco was up 5.35 per cent, HDFC Bank 5.31 per cent), BHEL 5.21 per cent, Coal India 5.07 per cent,
Of the 30 Sensex stocks, 27 rose sharply on good demand while the remaining three declined.

Prominent gainers of the day also included Axis Bank 4.87 per cent, ONGC 4.13 per cent, Maruti Suzuki 4.13 per cent, HDFC 4.07 per cent, Reliance Ind 3.93 per cent, Hero Motocorp 3.92 per cent, SBI 3.88 per cent, M&M 3.86 per cent, Tata Steel 3.64 per cent, Larsen 3.29 per cent and Bajaj Auto 2.56 per cent. "Going into the next week,... focus will be firmly on the exit poll numbers due on Monday evening as well as on the final election results on Friday. A decisive verdict from the elections will be a long-term positive for the markets," said Zarbade. Among BSE sectoral indices, bankex rose by 5.34 per cent, followed by realty 4.38 per cent, power 4.12 per cent, Oil&Gas 3.44 per cent, consumer goods 3.34 per cent. "We believe markets will continue to have Modi wave. Today's rally was led by financial. Bankex moving up by closer to 5 per cent, mainly led by renewed buying in private sector banks," said Rahul Shah, Vice President, Equity Advisory Group, Motilal Oswal Securities.
Small-cap and Mid-cap indices also rose by 0.72 per cent and 1.47 per cent respectively on good demand from retail investors.
The market breadth turned positive as 1,610 stocks finished with gains, 1,146 stocks ended with losses while 146 ruled steady. The total turnover rose to Rs 3,238.55 crores from Rs 2,299.87 crores yesterday. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 363.24 crore yesterday, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. Most Asian stocks ended higher. Key indices in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Japan ended higher by 0.12- 0.31 per cent, while indices in China and Taiwan eased by 0.21- to 0.46 per cent.
European stocks were trading lower. Key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK eased by 0.41-0.54 per cent.