NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 1st AUGUST & REVIEW

MID SESSION SUB DUED

Nifty fell sharply in the Second half and lost 70 points  and closed July month with a gain of 110 points. recovered sharply after forenoon’s fall and recovered what it lost on Monday .  Stop loss for Nifty  long positions may be maintained  at 7705 on close basis. . Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 7760 7795 and find support at 7680, 7645, for Friday.  While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market can be expected to  experience volatile movements with subdued midsession.

Nifty                               7721     - 70

Review for Thursday :: Bearish Second Half … !!!

Market opened steady and traded in a very narrow range during forenoon and encountered huge selling pressure in the Second half dur to derivative closing and closed with a loss of more than0.75% for the day., 43 of Nifty stocks closed in the red but broader market was steady with Advance Decline ratio at 1:!. Realty and Media indices gained while PSU Bank, Bank Nifty, Infra, Auto and Energy indices declined. HDFC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and L&T  dragged down Nifty by more than 25 points.

Cipla, Tata Steel, BPCL, Lupin and   remained gainers among Nifty stocks while NTPC, IDFC, HCL Tech, Asian Paints   remained  losers.

IRB, Sun TV, Aurobindo, Aditya Birla    remained major gainers  among F&O stocks while Arvind, NTPC, JP Associates, HCL Tech   declined  among F&O stocks.

HOUSING PRICES TO RISE IN H2

Housing prices in India are expected to rise during the second half of this year with improved market sentiments on formation of a stable government at the Centre, according to Knight Frank-FICCI survey. The launch of housing projects and sales volume, which have been sluggish since last two years, are also likely to improve in the next six months, FICCI-Knight Frank said while releasing the sentiment index for the second quarter of 2014. The index, based on a survey of various stakeholders including developers, private equity, banking and non-banking financial firms, surged by 6 points to 69 points, highest since survey began three quarters ago. Stating that this is supply-side sentiment index, Knight Frank India Chairman & Managing Director Shishir Baijal said: "The fact that political stability has a perceptible effect on the real estate sector is quite apparent from the optimism showcased by stakeholders post the elections." Property consultant Knight Frank noted that real estate stakeholders seem markedly bullish about the future, in view of the stable government at the Centre, and expect faster decision making and reforms in the coming quarters. "Housing prices are expected to go up during the second half of 2014," Knight Frank India Chief Economist and Director Research Samantak Das told reporters here, but did not specify the quantum of likely appreciation. According to the survey, the market is significantly optimistic about the residential sector, with 62 per cent of the respondents saying that housing prices will rise in the next 6 months against 14 per cent in the previous survey. More than 80 per cent of the respondents feel that residential project launches and sales volume will improve in the coming six months. "With the backdrop of a stable government coupled with high expectations of faster decision making and positive reforms, the respondents have shown positive outlook pertaining to the residential sector in terms of sales and launches. In fact prices are also perceived to go up in the coming six months," Das said. Realty firm SARE Homes Executive Director David Walker said the housing market remained slow during last 18 months. Noting that sentiments have improved post election, he said there would be gradual increase in the transaction volume as well as prices in coming months. As per the survey findings, future sentiment scores have risen across all regions with north being the most upbeat. "75 per cent of the respondents anticipate the availability of funds to be better in the next six months." On the office segment, more than 75 per cent of the survey respondents believed that leasing volume would witness and upsurge by the end of Q4 2014. "However, they expect new office supply to remain under check, which is likely to have an impact on rental appreciation. Majority of respondents feel that office space rental growth will strengthen in the coming six months".

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 31 & REVIEW

SCRIP SPECIFIC MOVEMENT

Nifty recovered sharply after forenoon’s fall and recovered what it lost on Monday. Stop loss for Nifty  long positions may be continued  at 7725 on close basis. Further, Scrip specific movement can be expected on Thursday in view of the last day of derivative closing. . Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 7830 7865 and find support at 7750 7715, for Friday.  While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market can be expected to experience volatile movements with stock specific movements.

Nifty                               7791     +42

 

Review for Wednesday :: Strong Recovery in Closing Session … !!!

Market opened steady and drifted lower tin the first half of the day and recovered smartly to close with a gain of more than 0.50%. L&T fell sharply to drag down the index in the opening session. 35 of Nifty stocks closed in the green but broader market was steady with Advance Decline ratio at 1:!. Barring Infra and IT, all other indices led by Media, Bank and Pharma indices gained. ICICI Bank, HDFC and Bharti contributed about 35 points to Nifty’s gain while L&T and SBI dragged down by about 25 points.

Lupin, Bharti, PNB, DLF, Kotak  remained gainers among Nifty stocks while L&T, Jindal Steel, Tata Power, Tech Mahindra  remained  losers.

Arvind, Ashok Leyland, HDIL, CESC and IB Real estate    remained major gainers  among F&O stocks while L&T, Havells, Unitech, Apollo Tyres, JP Associates   declined  among F&O stocks. 

SENSEX REGAIN 26000

Solid gains in Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and HDFC shares helped the benchmark Sensex today log its first rise in three sessions and end about 96 points higher to reclaim the 26K level despite sharp losses suffered by L&T. The BSE barometer recovered from initial hesitancy on buying in banking and auto counters while short-covering activity ahead of expiry of July equity derivative contracts tomorrow also aided the sentiment at fag-end, brokers said. ITC, ONGC, Dr Reddy's Lab and Hindalco also notched good gains and supported the Sensex rise. The 30-share barometer resumed lower and dipped to a low of 25,850.04 -- its lowest since July 22 -- to trade over 140 points lower. Later, it bounced back and finished at 26,087.42, registering a net rise of 96.19 points or 0.37 per cent. The Sensex had plunged by over 280 points, or 1.07 per cent, in the previous two trading sessions. The 50-issue Nifty of the NSE also recovered by 42.70 points, or 0.55 per cent, to close at 7,791.40. It had lost about 82 points in the previous two sessions. Jignesh Chaudhary, Head of Research, Veracity Broking Services said: "Local equities closed positively with the help of some bluechip companies. Positive sentiments in the market has boosted the confidence of investors. FII buying in the local shares also helped." Construction and engineering giant Larsen and Toubro (L&T) tumbled by 7.32 points on weak Q1 earnings. However, Bharti Airtel, the top gainer from the Sensex and Nifty, helped lift the indices with over 5 per cent gain on excellent Q1 results. Earnings related buying was also seen in shares of ITC Ltd and Dr Reddys Lab. Overall in the 30-Sensex pack, 23 ended higher and 7 finished in negative zone. A firming trend in Asian markets before the US Federal Reserve's update on monetary policy today and a higher opening in European markets also impacted the domestic shares positively, brokers said.

 

WORLD's TALLEST BRIDGE COMING UP IN INDIA

Construction of the world's tallest railway bridge from the point of pillar height has begun in Manipur by the Northeast Frontier Railway Construction Organisation. The proposed bridge near Noney with pillar height up to 141 metres is slated to become the tallest in the world from the point of pillar height surpassing the existing tallest of Mala-Rijeka viaduct on Belgrade-Bar railway line in Europe where the height of pillars is 139 metre, said an N-F Railway spokesman. The bridge in Manipur is part of the 111 km-long Jiribam-Tupul-Imphal railway line to connect the capital of Manipur with the broad gauge network of the country, the spokesman said. The alignment of the railway line passes through steep rolling hills of Patkai region, eastern trail of the Himalayas, he said. While Jiribam, a small town of Manipur near Assam-Manipur border, is situated 37 metres above mean sea level (MSL), Imphal is situated at 780 metres above MSL. The alignment has to traverse through not only a number of deep gorges but over several rivers flowing at low ground levels necessitating construction of 46 tunnels measuring a total 54.5 km in length and tall bridges to maintain a suitable gradient for efficient operation of railway, he said. The longest tunnel will be 4.9 km long between Jiribam-Tupul and 10.75 km between Tupul-Imphal section.

While the high mountains are penetrated by constructing tunnels, the deep river gorges between the mountain ridges are connected by tall bridges. The tallest of such bridges near Noney spans over a gorge with an overall length of about 700 metres, he said, adding, Railway had constituted an expert group to study the possible alternative span arrangements of such tall bridges considering parameters like the length of span, type of span, location of the piers, constructibility, serviceability, geological features, possible tectonic movement. Based on the recommendations of the expert group, it was decided that main superstructures will be steel open web through type girders of 103.5 metre span (centre to centre of bearings). The pillars are of reinforced cement concrete (RCC) hollow type with the tallest pillar being 141 metre high, while the height of other piers of this bridge vary from 50 metres to 90 metres. The first phase of the project from Jiribam to Tupul (84 km), which includes this bridge, is slated for completion by March 2016, the spokesman said. An arch-type railway bridge under construction on Chenab river in Jammu-Kashmir line bridging a gorge of about 360 metre depth from bed of river to the rail level is being considered as the highest railway bridge in the world, he informed.

App DOWNLOADS TO CROSS 8 BILLION

Riding on the back of spiralling usage of mobile devices, the number of app downloads in India is expected to surpass the 9 billion mark by 2015, according to an Assocham-Deloitte joint study. In 2012, the number of app downloads in India stood at 1.56 billion. The study, which was carried out among people aged between 16-30 years, said creating appropriate apps and local language content for each market, user education & awareness, promotions, could generate greater opportunities for telecom and media & entertainment industry. A mobile app is a computer program designed to run on smartphones, tablet computers and other mobile devices. The consumer shift towards mobility devices and applications from fixed products and services provides technology providers, equipment manufacturers, content providers and marketers an opportunity to accelerate the development of mobile solutions, the study said. The move to mobile devices and cloud services presents technology providers with new opportunities to create a closer relationship with customers and increase customer loyalty. With India being a price sensitive society, people are still reluctant to pay for mobile games and downloading large file-sized games/apps despite of cheap gaming rates and mobile internet plans, the study said, adding that monetisation is a big issue for both the local and global mobile game developers entering the Indian market. Mobile gaming continues to gain momentum, as is evident from the ongoing interest of gaming companies in this market. The study said while Apple offers community-based experience with applications such as Game Center that is accessible on iPhones and iPads, Windows smartphones have Xbox Live. Android devices also have a wide array of app options, including messenger and gaming. On the social app side, the study observed that a paradigm shift was brought by the social media campaign in the recently concluded general elections. It found that around 29 million people made 227 million interactions related to polls on Facebook.

SPURT IN AIR TRAFFIC INCREASE PLANE VULNERABILITY

More travelers are flying than ever before, creating a daunting challenge for airlines: keep passengers safe in an ever more crowded airspace. Each day, 8.3 million people around the globe -- roughly the population of New York City -- step aboard an airplane. They almost always land safely. Some flights, however, are safer than others. The accident rate in Africa, for instance, is nearly five times that of the worldwide average, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization, part of the United Nations. Such trouble spots also happen to be where air travel is growing the fastest, putting the number of fliers on course to double within the next 15 years. "In some areas of the world, there's going to be a learning curve," says Patrick Smith, a commercial airline pilot for 24 years and author of "Cockpit Confidential." But that doesn't necessarily mean that the skies are going to become more dangerous. "We've already doubled the volume of airplanes and passengers and what's happened is we've gotten safer." To meet the influx of passengers, airlines will need to hire and train enough qualified pilots and mechanics. Governments will have to develop and enforce safety regulations. New runways with proper navigation aids will have to be constructed. Industry experts acknowledge the difficulties, but note that aviation has gone through major growth spurts before and still managed to improve safety along the way. Last year, 3.1 billion passengers flew, twice the total in 1999. Yet, the chances of dying in a plane crash were much lower. Since 2000, there were less than three fatalities per 10 million passengers, according to an Associated Press analysis of crash data provided by aviation consultancy Ascend. In the 1990s, there were nearly eight; during the 1980s there were 11; and the 1970s had 26 deaths per 10 million passengers. The last two weeks have been bad for aviation with the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines flight followed by separate crashes in Taiwan and Mali. But the rare trio of tragedies represents just a fraction of the 93,500 daily airline flights worldwide. "Aviation safety is continuing to get better. A sudden spate of accidents doesn't mean that the industry has suddenly become less safe," says Paul Hayes, director of air safety for Ascend.

GOOGLE SEARCHLITE FOR MARKET CRASH

A rise in Google searches for terms relating to business and politics can predict a future stock market crash, researchers have claimed. A team of researchers from Warwick Business School in the UK and Boston University in the US has developed a method to automatically identify topics that people search for on Google before subsequent stock market falls. Applied to data between 2004 and 2012, the method shows that increases in searches for business and politics preceded falls in the stock market. The researchers suggest that this method could be applied to help identify warning signs in search data before a range of real world events. "Search engines, such as Google, record almost everything we search for," said Chester Curme, Research Fellow at Warwick Business School and lead author of the study. "Records of these search queries allow us to learn about how people gather information online before making decisions in the real world. So there's potential to use these search data to anticipate what large groups of people may do," Curme said. In previous studies, Curme and his colleagues, Tobias Preis and Suzy Moat of Warwick Business School, and H Eugene Stanley of Boston University, have demonstrated that usage data from Google and Wikipedia may contain early warning signs of stock market moves. However, these findings relied on the researchers choosing an appropriate set of keywords, in particular those related to finance. In order to enable algorithms to automatically identify patterns in search activity that might be related to subsequent real world behaviour, the team quantified the meaning of every single word on Wikipedia. This allowed the researchers to categorise words into topics, so that a "business" topic may contain words such as "business", "management", and "bank". The algorithm identified a broad selection of topics, ranging from food to architecture to cricket. The team then used Google Trends to see how often each week thousands of these words were searched for by Internet users in the US between 2004 and 2012. Researchers found that changes in how often users searched for terms relating to business and politics could be connected to subsequent stock market moves. "By mining these datasets, we were able to identify a historic link between rises in searches for terms for both business and politics, and a subsequent fall in stock market prices," said Moat. "Our results are in line with the hypothesis that increases in searches relating to both politics and business could be a sign of concern about the state of the economy, which may lead to decreased confidence in the value of stocks, resulting in transactions at lower prices," Moat added. The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

MUTUAL FUNDS EQUITY FOLIO RISE BY 84000

Equity mutual funds witnessed an addition of nearly 84,000 investor accounts or folios during the April-June quarter of this fiscal, helped mainly by sharp rise in stock market. Folios are numbers designated to individual investor accounts, though one investor can have multiple folios. According to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data on total investor accounts with 44 fund houses, the number of equity folios rose to 2,92,64,713 at the end of June 2014, from 2,91,80,922 at the end of the last fiscal (March 31, 2014), registering a gain of 83,791 during the three-month period. The additions came at a time when the market was scaling new highs. In May, the number of equity mutual fund (MF) folio stood at 2,92,19,875, while it was 2.96 crore at April-end. Besides, the month of April saw the first rise in more than four years. Prior to that, the equity MF sector had seen a continuous closure of folios since March 2009 after the market crashed due to the global financial crisis in late 2008. Since March 2009, it has seen a closure of 1.5 crore folios. The investor base reached at its peak of 4.11 crore in March 2009, while it was 3.77 crore in March 2008. On the rise in the folios last month, analysts said that robust market performance over the past few months helped investors renew faith in stock market. Besides, the industry saw a record Rs 7,309 crore net inflows in equity funds in June, which helped the industry grow its folio count. "The increase in investor base into equity mutual funds is a positive development for the markets. Since markets have been rising, investors seem to have realised that they are missing out on a big opportunity," ICICI Prudential AMC CIO S Naren said. Axis AMC Senior Fund Manager (Equity) Pankaj Murarka said: "The trend of rise in new accounts in equity mutual fund is expected to accelerate as the increase is too small." The BSE's benchmark Sensex breached 25,000 mark in June, NSE's Nifty closed at its the then all-time high of 7,600 points during the month.

STOCKS OVERSHADOW GOLD ON RETURNS

Indian equities have overshadowed gold's glitter by giving handsome returns of almost 23 per cent to investors so far this year.
While the BSE's 30-stock benchmark index Sensex has logged in 22.76 per cent growth for investors so far in 2014, gold prices have fallen by 5 per cent. Silver however, managed to generate a marginal return of 2.38 per cent.
According to market experts, this year is proving to be a good for the Indian equities, riding high on improved domestic investor sentiment and robust foreign fund inflows.
Gold and stock prices generally follow opposite trends.
Gold is normally preferred as a hedge against inflation, and investors tend to park their money in bullion considering it a safer bet in times of market uncertainties.
After outperforming stock markets for more than a decade, gold has been on the back foot for more than two consecutive years now vis-a-vis equities.
Gold price was Rs 29,800 per 10 grams on December 31, 2013 and silver was at Rs 43,755 per kg. While gold closed at Rs 28,370 yesterday, silver was at Rs 44,800.
On the other hand, Sensex, which was at 21,170.68 points on December 31 last year settled at 25,991.23 level yesterday. It recorded its all-time high level of 26,300.17 on July 25.
Overseas investors, major drivers of Indian equities, have made a net investment of USD 25.5 billion (Rs 1.53 lakh crore), since the beginning of the year.
Last year, the Sensex gave a positive return of about 9 per cent to investors, while gold prices fell by about 3 per cent and silver plummeted close to 24 per cent.
In 2012, the Sensex rose by over 25 per cent, which was nearly double the gain of about 12.95 per cent in gold prices. The appreciation in silver was at about 12.84 per in 2012.

MONSOON UNCERTAINITY THREATEN FOODGRAINS OUTPUT

The country's agriculture growth is likely to remain muted at 1 per cent in FY'2015 largely due to strong statistical base-effect, rating agency Crisil said today. Monsoons are currently 24 per cent below the long period average, which is worse than the deficiency seen in fiscals 2009 or 2012. While 2009 turned out to be a drought year, rains recovered sharply in the latter half of the season in 2012. "This year, we believe there is a higher probability of a turnaround - just like in 2012. This is consistent with the IMD forecast of rainfall deficiency reducing to less than 10 per cent by the end of the season. "But despite the recovery, we believe that agriculture growth will remain muted at 1 per cent in fiscal 2015 as a strong statistical base-effect from last year's growth will kick in," the agency said in a report here. Moreover, some damage to sowing has already taken place with pulses and coarse cereals likely to be the most severely impacted. The only saving grace is rice, which alone accounts for 70 per cent of food grain production and has been less impacted due to better rains in the North East, it said. Deficient rainfall has affected the sowing pattern. As of July 25, rice sowing was 16 per cent below normal compared with 43 per cent for coarse cereals, 33 per cent for pulses and 17 per cent of total oilseeds, Crisil said. As July and August are the critical months for sowing, the weighted sowing deficiency as of August-end is a strong indicator of kharif foodgrain production in any year. In FY10 and FY12, as the weighted sowing deficiency improved by end of August, food grain output rose sharply, even managing to surpass the long-term average of 114.8 million tonne, it said. This year, too, if rains pick up in the coming weeks, foodgrain output may not be severely impacted. But the high growth of last fiscal will mean the statistical Y-o-Y trend in farm output will be flat - just the way it was in 2012-13, when production recovered but agricultural growth came in at 1.4 per cent following up on a 5 per cent growth in 2011-12, Crisil said. After a bumper agricultural growth last year, fiscal 2015 has been tepid. In June, IMD forecast a 33 per cent probability of deficient monsoon and 38 per cent chance of a sub-normal one, it added.

DEFICIT TO COME DOWN

Deficit in monsoon rains has come down and good rainfall is expected in the coming days that will help complete sowing operations, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said today. He also said that no state government has declared drought yet. However, the Centre is prepared to help those states which seek any help for drought-hit areas. As per the Met Department, the overall rainfall deficit has come down to 25 per cent till July 23. Monsoons are currently 24 per cent below the long period average, which is worse than the deficiency seen in fiscals 2009 or 2012, according to sources.

"The monsoon deficit has come down. As per the Met Department, monsoon rains are good so far and is likely to be good in the coming days," Singh told reporters. Asked if there is drought concern in some parts of the country, he said, "We give assistance to states only when they declare drought. So far, no state governments have written to us that they have declared drought in a particular region." "We are ready to help them. Even states have separate funds to utilise for this purpose," he said, adding that the Centre is in regular touch with state governments. On rising prices of tomato that have touched Rs 80 per kg in the national capital, the minister said, "The supply is sufficient. Production in 2013-14 was two per cent higher than the previous year." The revival of monsoon in northern and central parts of country has given a push to the sowing operations. As per the official data, the total acreage covered under kharif crops like paddy remained lower by just about 27 per cent at 53.32 million hectares till last week, as against 72.91 million hectares in the year ago. Sowing of kharif crop begins with the onset of southwest monsoon in June.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 30 & REVIEW

FORENOON BETTER

Nifty continued its fall for the Second day and closed below 7750. One more fall would confirm the short term weakness. Stop loss for Nifty  long positions may be continued  at 7725. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 7785 7820 and find support at 7705 7670, for Tuesday.  While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market can be expected to be generally better in the forenoon and could face selling pressure towards close.

Nifty                               7749     -41

Review for Monday :: Bearish Bias … !!!

Market opened steady and drifted lower to trade with negative bias through out the day and closed with a loss of more than 0.50%. 35 of Nifty stocks closed in the red and broader market too was quite negative with Advance Decline ratio at about 1:2. IT, Pharma and FMCG indices gained while Realty, Metal, Media, Energy indices declined. ICICI Bank, Reliance and Axis Bank dragged down Nifty by more than 20 points while  Hind Unilever and Inbfy contained the fall by about 10 points.

Hind Unilever, HCL Tech, Cairn, PNB, BHEL remained gainers among Nifty stocks while DLF, Coal India, BPCL, Ambuja Cement remained major losers.

RPower, Hind Unilever, JP Associates, Glenmark, JP Power    remained major gainers  among F&O stocks while DLF, IRB, CESC, Tata Motors DVR, Jubilant Food   declined sharply among F&O stocks. 

INDICES @ ONE WEEK LOW

Extending losses for the second day, equity benchmarks closed at one-week lows with the Sensex ending below the 26,000 mark and the Nifty ending at 7,748.70 as investors booked profits in recent out-performers in sectors including realty, metals, oil & gas. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty were seen trading with negative bias ahead of tomorrow's trading holiday and July F&O expiry on Thursday. Market breadth was largely negative. Small-cap and mid-cap indices fell due to persistent selling pressure from retail investors. The 30-share index Sensex resumed higher at 26,173.47 hovered in a range of 26,181.83 and 25,900.25 before ending at 25,991.23, showing a loss of 135.52 points or 0.52 per cent from Friday's closing. It has now dropped 280.62 points, or 1.07 per cent, in two consecutive sessions. Today's closing is its weakest since July 21 (25,715.17). The CNX 50-share Nifty dropped by 41.75 points, or 0.54 per cent, to close at one-week low of 7,748.70. On Friday, it had slipped by over 40 points. In eight straight trading sessions (July 15-24), the Sensex and the Nifty spurted by over 5 per cent to hit lifetime highs. Stocks of FMCG major Hindustan Unilever gained 3.69 per cent after the company today reported increase in standalone net profit at Rs 1,056.85 crore for the June quarter. Among major losers, Coal India suffered the most by plunging over 3 per cent, the most in three weeks. Other laggards include Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel, RIL, ICICI Bank, SBI, Hero MotoCorp, M&M and Bajaj Auto. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 125.51 crore on last Friday, as per provisional data. In Asia, Chinese stocks led gains by jumping over 2 per cent on strong growth in profit at industrial companies in June 2014. Key indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea ended higher by 0.20 per cent to 2.41 per cent while Taiwan weighted index declined by 0.20 per cent. European markets were trading mixed in their early trade as investors weighed company earnings and awaited data on American services and home sales. Key indices and France and UK firmed up by 0.15 per cent to 0.48 per cent while Germany's DAX was quoting lower by 0.03 per cent.

 

REAL ESTATE, EQUITIES GAVE MAXIMUM RETURNS

Investments made in the real estate and equities have given the highest returns of up to 20 per cent to investors in the last two decades, says a study.
According to a recent study by Cians Analytics on the returns from various asset classes in India during 1991–2013, real estate and equity market have given maximum returns to investors.
The study covers five types of asset classes -- equities (BSE Sensex), commodities (gold), bank fixed Deposits (1–3 year maturities), government securities (10-year maturity), and real estate.
It was aimed at finding out which asset class would have provided the highest return since the liberalisation process commenced in 1991.
Looking at the overall returns, the study noted that "real estate appears to have outperformed all other asset classes during the 23-year period with an annualised rate of 20 per cent."
After real estate, equities have also performed strongly in India as the stock market gave a healthy annualised return of 15.5 per cent on a nominal basis during the past 23 years. However, adjusting for inflation, the real return is only 7.1 per cent per annum.
The study also explored gold, government securities and fixed deposits at banks, which were found to have posted comparatively lower returns of 10.9 per cent, 9.7 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively for the 23-year period.
"Real estate was repeatedly the best performer during the 5-year sub-periods since 1991, with the highest return being 670 per cent during 2008–12 and the lowest 46 per cent during 1993–97," the study noted.
It said that the realty sector performance has been measured based on the average of the land rates (1991–2006) and circle rates (2007 onwards) set by the land and urban development authorities for residential property in Delhi.
These have been used as a proxy for real estate prices since reliable data is not available for the period since 1991. Furthermore, the rental yields have been sourced from various new reports for the respective periods, the study said.

SENSEX, NIFTY RETREAT FROM LIFE TIME HIGH LEVELS

Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty hit new life-time highs today but retreated on profit-booking in bluechips, including ICICI Bank, Wipro and Tata Motors, to log their first drop in nine sessions. The BSE Sensex ended down 145.10 points, or 0.55 per cent, to end at 26,126.75 after surging to 26,300.17 intra day. Yesterday, the 30-share bluechip benchmark had ended at its all-time closing high of 26,271.85 and had also hit intra-day high of 26,292.66. The NSE Nifty in early trade hit record 7,840.9 but ended below the key 7,800-mark to close at 7,790.45, down 40.15 points or 0.51 per cent. Its previous all-time high of 7,835.65 was hit yesterday. Marked losses in counters like RIL, SBI, HDFC Bank and Infosys also weighed on the market sentiment. Selling was seen mostly across-the-board as 10 out of 12 BSE sectoral indices closed in the red while only shares from healthcare and FMCG segments logged gains on defensive buying. "The Indian markets saw a day of decline after running up rapidly in the past few sessions," said Kiran Kumar Kavikondala, Director & CEO, WealthRays Securities. The mood seems to be cautious ahead of the expiry of Indian derivatives contract on July 31, traders said, adding that persisting fears about a spike in oil price on Middle East and Ukraine violence continues to spook investors. Both the indices had gained about 5 per cent in the previous eight sessions, their longest in recent times.

The Sensex had gained 1,264.87 points while Nifty 376.45 points in this period as overseas money chased encouraging corporate earnings. Receding fears about Monsoon, uptick in macroeconomic data and the government's reform push also contributed to the stupendous rally, said market analysts. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) picked up shares worth a net Rs 161.55 crore yesterday, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. For the week, Sensex rose 485 points and Nifty spiked 127 points.

2.2 BILLION ARE POOR

More than 2.2 billion people are "poor or near-poor", with financial crises, natural disasters, soaring food prices and violent conflicts threatening to exacerbate the problem, a United Nations report said today. While poverty is in decline worldwide, growing inequality and "structural vulnerabilities" remain a serious threat, said the report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), released in Tokyo. Nearly 1.5 billion people in 91 developing states live in poverty while another 800 million are teetering on the edge, it found. "Eliminating extreme poverty is not just about 'getting to zero'; it is also about staying there," said the agency's 2014 Human Development Report. "Those most vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change and financial setbacks must be specifically empowered and protected. "Making vulnerability reduction central in future development agendas is the only way to ensure that progress is resilient and sustainable," it added. UNDP chief Helen Clark said this was the first time that the annual study looked at vulnerability and resilience jointly "through a human development lens". "If life-cycle and structural vulnerability are addressed, and conscious efforts are made to lift resilience to crisis and disaster, then I have no doubt that many of the kind of setbacks we see today to human development can be averted in future," Clark said at an event for the report's release. The study, entitled "Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience", called for making basic social services available to all and putting full employment at the top of the development agenda. "Providing basic social security benefits to the world's poor would cost less than two percent of global GDP (gross domestic product)," it said. "A basic social protection package is affordable so long as low-income countries reallocate funds and raise domestic resources, coupled with support by the international donor community." About 1.2 billion people survive on the equivalent of USD 1.25 or less per day, the UNDP said. "If you are poor, you are less able to handle several shocks; you may also be disabled, you may also be older. So you have more layers of things against you," Khalid Malik, the report's lead author, told reporters ahead of its release today. Key to dealing with the problem was focusing government policy on jobs and social safety nets, the study said. "Structural vulnerabilities are often manifested through deep inequalities and widespread poverty," it said. "The poor, women, minorities (ethnic, linguistic, religious, migrant, or sexual), indigenous peoples, people in rural or remote areas or living with disabilities, and countries landlocked or with limited natural resources tend to face higher barriers.

JET, ETIHAD DISCOUNT OFFER

Private carrier Jet Airways and its 24 per cent equity partner Etihad today announced a 20-50 per cent special limited period discount on fares across 135 international destinations of the two carriers. "Both economy and business class travellers of Jet Airways and Etihad Airways availing this special offer will enjoy a flat 20-50 per cent discount over regular fares, which is to celebrate the strategic alliance," a release said here. The 72-hour introductory joint special fare offer will be available from July 25 to July 27 for a travel period between September 1 and June 15, 2015 for flights within India and between September 1 and November 30 this year for flights to international destinations, the release said. The offer, however, will be limited for tickets purchased in India and for travel in business and economy classes of both the airlines, it said. Naresh Goyal's Jet Airways became the first Indian carrier to accept investment from a foreign airline after the government relaxed foreign direct investment norms for the domestic airline operators about two years ago. The Abu Dhabi-based carrier bought 24 per cent stake worth about Rs 2,060 crore in the Jet Airways last year, marking the first FDI by a foreign carrier. Incidentally, Goyal was opposed to the very idea of allowing up to 49 per cent stake purchase in the domestic carrier by the overseas airlines, at the time the then government had sought to relax the norms. "The special introductory offer is a celebration to mark the formalisation of the strategic alliance between Etihad Airways and Jet Airways," Jet Airways Senior Vice President (Commercial) Gaurang Shetty said. Etihad Airways General Manager in India Neerja Bhatia said, "This partnership has many benefits for all stakeholders be it the two airlines or the aviation sector. However, it is our customers who will benefit the most with more choice, better connections and good value for money."

SAMSUNG, APPLE LOOSE GROUND

Apple and Samsung have lost ground in the tablet computer market as growth cools in the once-hot segment, the research firm IDC said today. An IDC survey said sales of tablets in the March-June period were 49.3 million, up a modest 11 per cent from a year ago but down 1.5 per cent from the previous quarter. Apple, which popularised tablets with its iPad, remained the largest single vendor but its market share fell to 26.9 per cent from 33 per cent last year. IDC's survey showed Apple shipped 13.3 million iPads, above Apple's own report this week showing 12.3 million sold. South Korean Samsung saw essentially flat sales in the period of 8.5 million units, while its market share slipped to 17.2 per cent from 18.8 per cent a year ago. IDC's Jitesh Ubrani said there has been "growth amongst the smaller vendors and a levelling of shares across more vendors as the market enters a new phase." "Until recently, Apple, and to a lesser extent Samsung, have been sitting at the top of the market, minimally impacted by the progress from competitors." The biggest gains came from China's Lenovo, which boosted its market share to 4.9 per cent on 67 per cent sales growth. Taiwan-based Asus, which makes some Google-branded tablets, saw its market share edge up to 4.6 per cent. "The market is still being impacted by the rise of large-screen smartphones and longer than anticipated ownership cycles," said IDC's Jean Philippe Bouchard. "We can also attribute the market deceleration to slow commercial adoption of tablets. Despite this trend, we believe that stronger commercial demand for tablets in the second half of 2014 will help the market grow and that we will see more enterprise-specific offerings, as illustrated by the Apple and IBM partnership, come to market." The research firm Strategy Analytics said in its survey this week that global tablet shipments reached 52.9 million units, up just six per cent from the same period a year ago.

SENSEX & NIFTY ON NEW PEAK

Extending the winning run to eighth straight day, Sensex today ended at a new peak of 26,271.85 and Nifty scaled 7,800 mark for the first time at close as FIIs continued to pour in money enthused by steps to attract overseas investment and encouraging corporate earnings. Besides, positive cues from Asia after strong Chinese manufacturing data kept the sentiment on a firm footing although indices showed signs of profit-booking early on. Metal, IT and FMCG counters were in demand while some of the consumer durable, pharma and power stocks saw investors taking some profit off the table, said traders. Sensex-based shares like ITC, Infosys, RIL, HDFC Bank, Tata Steel, HUL, Hindalco and Wipro notched up handsome gains and kept the momentum on the positive side. 

The benchmark BSE S&P 30-share Sensex moved in a narrow range and mostly in negative terrain till afternoon, but buying in the last session pushed up the Sensex by 124.52, or 0.48 per cent, to end at 26,271.85. It also recorded intra-day high of 26,292.66. Both intra-day high and closing level values surpassed their previous peaks. In eight days, its longest winning streak since September 2012, the gauge has now rallied 1,265 points. The Sensex has increased 24 per cent this year so far, the best among major global markets, as FIIs have pumped USD 12 billion in shares. Similarly, the 50-issue CNX Nifty of the NSE improved by 34.85 points, or 0.45 per cent, to end above 7,800-mark for the first time in the history at 7,830.60. It registered new intra-trade peak of 7,835.65. In eight days, Nifty has rallied 376.45 points. The Cabinet today gave go-ahead to FDI cap hike in insurance to 49 per cent, paving way for inflow of as much as Rs 25,000 crore foreign funds. Yesterday, the FII limit for investment in government securities was hiked by USD 5 billion within the total cap of USD 30 billion. Besides, the government may soon take a decision on easing FDI in Railways and Defence sectors. Foreign Portfolio Investors bought shares worth a net Rs 652.40 crore yesterday as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 25 & REVIEW

MID SESSION BETTER

Nifty continued its  gains for the Eighth day in a row . Nifty closed well above 7800 mark, a new record high for Nifty. Stop loss for long positions may be trailed to 7725. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 7865 7900 and find support at 7790 7755, for Friday.  While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market can be expected to be better during midsession and could experience profit booking towards close.

Nifty 7831 +35

Review for Thursday :: Recovery in Second Half … !!!

Market remained subdued to marginally in the forenoon and broke out of the narrow range to close with about 0.50% gain towards close. 36 of Nifty stocks gained but broader market was marginally negative with an Advance Decline ratio of 1:!.1. Metal, PSU Bank, IT, FMCG indices gained while Media, Energy, Pharma indices declined..Metal, PSU Bank, IT, FMCG indices gained while Media, Energy and Pharma indices declined. ITC, Reliance, HDFC Bank and Infy contributed more than 15 points to Nifty’s gain.

Cairn declined sharply due to disappointing results,

Bank of Baroda, Asian Paints, HCL Tech and Tata Steel remained major gainers among Nifty stocks while Cairn. GAIL, Power Grid, Dr Reddy remained losers.

UCO Bank, Rel Capital, Bank of India, SAIL, JSW STeel    remained major gainers  among F&O stocks while JP Power, Cairn, JP Associates, Sun TV, Apollo Tyre  declined among F&O stocks.

TCS CROSS Rs.5 LAKH CRORE MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the country's largest software services exporter, today attained a market valuation of over Rs 5 lakh crore, becoming the first company in Indian markets to achieve this milestone.
At the end of today's trade, the market capitalisation (m-cap) of TCS soared to Rs 5,06,703.34 crore, the highest for the company since its listing in 2004.
Shares of the IT bellwether ended the day at Rs 2,586.90, up 2.21 per cent on the BSE. In intra-day, it gained 2.52 per cent to Rs 2,595 -- its 52-week high.
In dollar terms, TCS' market valuation rose to USD 84 billion.
Interestingly, TCS's current market capitalisation is higher than the combined valuation of other big IT players such as Infosys (Rs 1,92,196.84 crore), HCL Technologies (Rs 1,07,880.18 crore), Wipro (Rs 1,40,474.31 crore) and Tech Mahindra (Rs 50,374.76 crore).
TCS's stock has been in strong position, rallying more than 8 per cent in five consecutive sessions from last Thursday, after the company posted a 45 per cent jump in June quarter net profit.
TCS is also currently the country's most valued company in terms of market valuation.
The IT major is followed by state-run ONGC whose m-cap stood at Rs 3,46,582.90 crore, Reliance Industries Rs 3,34,054.95 crore, ITC (Rs 2,80,454.65 crore) and Coal India (Rs 2,42,579.97 crore).
The combined market capitalisation of as many as 16 listed Tata group firms stands at Rs 3,06,338.63 crore.

ULTRA HIGH NET INDIVIDUALS ON RISE

The number of ultra-high networth individuals (UHNIs) having an investible surplus of over Rs 25 crore rose 16 per cent to 1.17 lakh last fiscal, and this is estimated to triple to 3.43 lakh in the next three years, says a report. As for the underlying wealth held by this uber rich grouping, which also includes professionals having an annual income of over Rs 3 crore, grew 21 per cent to Rs 104 trillion (Rs 104 lakh crore), and will grow four times to Rs 408 trillion in the next three years, says a wealth report by the Kotak group and Ernst & Young. "There has been an impressive rise in wealth creation and will only increase in the years ahead. Growth in the underlying wealth will outpace growth in the number of UHNIs," consultancy firm E&Y partner Murali Balaraman told reporters here. His colleague Abizer Diwanji said from the societal point of view, managing this growth in the number of the rich people will not cause any tensions as economic disparity is an "accepted norm" in the country. Balaraman said the firm, which partnered with the Kotak Wealth Management to launch the report, extrapolated available economic data to arrive at the current number of UHNIs, their wealth, as also the estimates going forward. Even though the rising criticism of the country going the crony capitalist way and questions over wealth creation by the few dominating public discourse, Balaraman said the report did not devote any attention to how the wealth was created. Of the UHNIs, 150 individuals and another 15-20 companies closely associated with the segment like those selling luxury brands and wealth managers, were interviewed to analyse how the wealth gets allocated to different uses like leisure, travel, investments and philanthropy. The interviews, done in March before the outcome of the general elections, pointed out to much optimism on the economic environment among the UHNIs.

Diwanji said because of this, there has been an increase in spending to the tune of 44 per cent in FY'14 from the 30 per cent in FY12. He said even though investing in real estate continues to be a favourite avenue, allocations to equity are also growing and grew to 38 per cent in FY14, up from 35 per cent the previous year. Kotak Mahindra Bank joint managing director C Jayaram said the propensity towards equities will only grow now on given the changes in the tax laws governing fixed income investments, which was a favourite earlier, in the budget. There has also been a surge in gold investments during the year, Balaraman said. On the philanthropic front, 60 per cent of those surveyed said they would pay to charities while planning their annual expenditure. Balaraman said of the UHNIs, the professionals are hands-on with their contributions and generally come up with help beyond the donations to ensure the success of the aim, while those who have inherited the wealth stop only at making the contribution. In investments, there has been the emergence of a new asset class as UHNIs have started investing in private equity funds very sizeable. Over 26 per cent of the surveyed UHNIs said they have private equity investments, with real estate and IT being the key focus sectors, while e-commerce and pharma catching up.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 24 & REVIEW

MID SESSION SUBDUED... RECOVERY @ CLOSE….!! 

Nifty continued its gains for the Seventh day in a row . Nifty is in the vicinity of 7800 and it could aim at 8000 mark in the near term. Stop loss for long positions may be trailed to 7700. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 7830, 7870 and find support at 7755 7720, for Thursday.  While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market can be expected to be volatile with subdued midsession and recovery towards close.

Nifty 7796 +28

Review for Wednesday :: Volatile Movements with Bullish Bias … !!!

Market opened better and traded in a zigzag fashion with bullish bias and IT stocks helped broader indices to close at record high. 26 of Nifty stock declined and t broader market too was negative with   Advance Decline ratio at 1:1.3. IT, PSU Bank, Auto and FMCG indices gained while Media, Metal declined. Infy, ICICI Bank, TCS contributed more than 25 points to Nifty’s gain.

IT and Oil PSU stocks gained smartly.

Infy, BPCL, Hindalco, Bank of Baroda, Wipro remained major gainers among Nifty stocks while Ambuja Cement, Ultra Cement, ACC, IDFC remained losers.

MRF, GMR Infra, Dish TV, Glenmark remained major gainers  among F&O stocks while Ultra Cement, Exide, Ambuja Cement, ACC  declined among F&O stocks. 

SENSEX, NIFTY @ NEW PEAKS

The benchmark Sensex today rose 121 points to end at a new closing high of 26,147.33 extending its winning run to seventh session, its longest since September 2012, boosted by gains in IT and banking shares on upbeat earnings, robust capital inflows and positive global cues. The NSE Nifty rose 27.90 points, or 0.36 per cent, to end at yet another record close of 7,795.75, crossing its previous peak of 7,787.15 (July 7). It also hit new intra-day peak of 7,809.20, surpassing level of 7,808.85 hit on July 8. IT stocks firmed up on positive economic data in the US, the biggest outsourcing market for the Indian IT firms. Good
results by major IT firms also boosted the sentiment. Country's second largest software services exporter, Infosys, was the top Sensex gainer with a rise of 3.46 per cent and contributed over 60 points to the surge. TCS attained its record market valuation of Rs 5 lakh crore helped by over 2 per cent spike in stock value. Wipro shares also rose. In banking, ICICI Bank and SBI witnessed good buying. Total market breadth, however, was negative following selling in second-line stocks by retail investors. ""Markets kissed new highs as firmness in Asian and European stocks after better-than-expected data in the US boosted sentiments. On domestic front, consistent FII inflows and healthy earnings also helped," said Jayant Manglik, President-retail distribution, Religare Securities. Traders said sustained capital inflows kept the market tempo strong as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) injected Rs 412.03 crore yesterday as per provisional data. The BSE 30-share gauge resumed higher and moved in a range of almost 190 points before settling at new peak of 26,147.33, a rise of 121.53 points or 0.47 per cent. Its highest level at close was 26,100.08 hit on July 7. Sensex , however, failed to cross previous all-time high of 26,190.44 recorded on July 8, 2014 as it touched 26,188.64 intra-day. In straight seven sessions, the Sensex has now garnered 1,140.35 points or 4.56 per cent. This is its longest winning run since September 2012. Asian stocks closed mixed with upward bias. Indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan closed higher while from Japan and South Korea ended slightly lower. European markets, however, trading better in their late morning deals. France's CAC was up by 0.42 per cent, Germany's DAX by 0.36 per cent and the UK's FTSE by 0.19 per cent.

 

INDIANS SMART PHONE MANIA

Smartphone users in the country are among the biggest consumers of data globally, spending over three hours on an average on their devices, a study by telecom equipment maker Ericsson today said. According to the study, Indian users spend three hours 18 minutes on average everyday with their smartphones, of which one-third time is spent on apps.
Also, there has been a 63 per cent increase in app usage in the past two years, the study added. Seventy-six per cent of existing mobile broadband users (respondents) said they are willing to pay more for guaranteed better mobile data experience. "India has higher smartphone usage compared to even the US, where the average is 132 minutes (2 hours 12 minutes). In some of the Asian countries, it ranges between 40-50 minutes," Ericsson India Vice President (Strategy and Marketing) Ajay Gupta told reporters here. The study found respondents saying they checked their phones 77 times a day on an average, with about 26 per cent saying they do so more than 100 times a day.
"Smartphone usage is now no longer limited to just social media and chat apps. People are using mobile apps like WhatsApp and WeChat for business purposes, while many working professionals said they shop online using smartphones even while at work," he said. The Ericsson Consumer Lab study was conducted among 4,000 smartphone users across 18 urban cities in India.
Video consumption on mobile devices is on the rise, with 40 per cent respondents saying they watched videos late at night in bed, 25 per cent while commuting, 23 per cent while having dinner and 20 per cent said they watched videos while shopping. The report also found 12 per cent of housewives saying they use smartphones as portable video players, while somebody else in the family watched television. Another 10 per cent said they watch spiritual videos at the start of their day. "These are interesting insights that telecom operators can use to design data packages for consumers," he said. The report also found that network performance shaped smartphone behavior and satisfied users spent more time streaming videos and browsing.
About 68 per cent of all mobile minutes on the smartphone are at home, the study said adding that half of all mobile broadband issues faced by users occured while they are indoors.
"Network performance and app coverage are the critical areas of focus for mobile operators. We are focussed on bringing solutions and global experience from leading markets to operators in India to deliver optimal consumer experience in sync with the growing needs of consumers," Ericsson India VP (Engagement Practices) Nishant Batra said.
Ericsson will bring its DOT solution to India in the fourth quarter of this year (October-December) to help them deliver better indoor coverage to operators.

INDIA's CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES

Consumer confidence level in India jumped by seven points during the second quarter of this year bringing India at the top position globally with the change in government at the Centre, global information and insights provider Nielsen has said.
As per a global consumer confidence index study by Nielsen, India which was ranked second in the first quarter of 2013 is now the most optimistic country, followed by Indonesia and the Philippines. Consumer confidence in India was indexed at 128 in Q2 2014, seven-point increase from Q1 2013 (121). "Consumers in India have indicated increased levels of confidence in the second quarter when the country's general elections were taking place," Nielsen India Region President Piyush Mathur said.
"This buoyancy is yet to translate into increased consumption across sectors. Despite the ongoing inflationary trend and expectations of a poor monsoon, consumers are likely to open their purse strings as we head into the festive season in response to savvy marketing stimulus," he added.
As per the survey, three in five (60 per cent) online respondents polled indicated that this is a good time to buy things they want and need, up by six percentage points from last quarter (54 per cent in Q1 2014) and over four in five respondents (83 per cent) are optimistic about job prospects, over the next twelve months – a nine percentage point increase in sentiment from last quarter. "India is the most optimistic globally about local job prospects over the next 12 months and is followed by the Philippines (77 per cent) and Indonesia (76 per cent)," the survey said.
Seventy –nine per cent indicated that the state of personal finances was good or excellent in the second quarter 2014, up from 76 per cent in Q1. However, the top concerns amongst respondents continues to be job security (23 per cent) and the state of the economy (20 per cent). The concern on the state of the economy has increased by five percentage points over last quarter (15 per cent), it added. The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, established in 2005, measures consumer confidence, major concerns, and spending intentions among more than 30,000 respondents with Internet access in 60 countries.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 23 & REVIEW

SUBDUED SECOND HALF

Nifty continued its  gains for the Sixth day in a row . Nifty surpassed the resistance level with ease and closed above 7750. Stop loss for long positions may be trailed to 7670. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 7810, 7850 and find support at 7730 7690, for Wednesday.  While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market can be expected to be generally better in the forenoon and might encounter selling/ profit booking  in the second half of the day.

Nifty                               7768     +84

Review for Tuesday, :: Smart Rise in the Closing Hour … !!!

Market opened better and traded in a narrow range thereafter and surged higher in the last hour to close with a smart gain of 1% for the day., 34 of Nifty stock gained  but broader market was steady with  Advance Decline ratio at 1.05:1. Barring PSU Bank index all other sectoral indices gained led by IT, Energy, Pharma , Metal etc., Reliance, HDFC, TCS, contributed more than 40 points to Nifty’s gain .

Telecom stocks gained smartly owing to TRAI move of spectrum sharing within the circle.

 

Bharti, Reliance, HDFC, TCS, Dr Reddy    remained major  gainers   among Nifty stocks while Maruti, L&T, PNB, Power Grid, M&M     remained  losers.

Exide, IDEA, Bharti, Hexaware    remained major gainers  among F&O stocks while Unitech, IRB, Syndicate Bank, India Cement, GMR Infrra  declined among F&O stocks. 

SENSEX AGAIN ON 26000 PEAK

The benchmark Sensex today extended its winning run to the sixth straight session and soared 311 points to reclaim the 26,000-mark at close as robust earnings from key bluechips boosted investor sentiment. Improving macroeconomic indicators, monsoon progress and positive global cues have also supported the buoyancy in the domestic markets, brokers said. This is only the second time in its history that the 30-share BSE Sensex has closed above the 26K level. The index had closed at record 26,100.08 on July 7. Its all-time high, however, is 26,190.44 and was hit on July 8. Dipen Shah, Head of Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities, said: "Supportive global markets, slight easing of geo-political tensions and continued optimism on long term growth prospects of the economy helped sentiments. Monsoon has been progressing across India over the past few days. Results, especially from IT majors, have been above estimates." The Sensex today opened higher at 25,784.48 and shot up further to a high of 26,050.38 before ending at 26,025.80, clocking a gain of 310.63 points or 1.21 per cent from previous close. In six days, it has rallied over 1,018 points. Among the frontline blue-chips, Reliance Industries spearheaded the rally followed by HDFC, TCS, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ITC, Infoys and Wipro. As many as 25 Sensex constituents ended in the green while five ended down. 

The NSE 50-share Nifty firmed up by 83.65 points, or 1.09 per cent, to finish at 7,767.85. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 161.17 crore yesterday as per provisional data. Asian stocks ended higher as investors shrugged off international tension after the downing of passenger jet in Ukraine last week and fighting between Israel and Palestine in Gaza Strip. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, South Korea, China, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan were up 0.19-1.69 per cent. European stocks were also trading higher amid signs that tension over Ukraine's crisis is easing. Key benchmark indices in France, Germany and the UK moved up by 0.73-0.84 per cent range.

Telecom stocks flared up after Idea Cellular's results yesterday and after regulator TRAI recommended allowing sharing of all categories of airwaves held by operations including spectrum allocated at old price. Jayant Manglik, President-retail distribution, Religare Securities, said: "Midcap and small cap counters were not able to participate in the rally...Going ahead, FII inflows and easing in geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East would decide the next direction of the markets. However, volatility is expected to prevail." Major Sensex gainers were Bharti Airtel (4.81 per cent), Reliance Industries (3.35 per cent), HDFC (2.93 per cent), TCS (2.71 per cent), Hindalco Industries (2.62 per cent), Wipro (2.53 per cent) and Dr Reddy's Lab (2.37 per cent). Tata Motors (2.33 per cent), Coal India (2.23 per cent) and HDFC Bank (1.43 per cent) also notched up smart rise. The key laggards included Maruti which fell by 1 per cent, L&T (0.92 per cent), M&M (0.51 per cent) and BHEL (0.32 per cent). Among the S&P BSE sectoral indices, Teck rose by 2.02 per cent, IT 1.78 per cent, Oil&Gas 1.74 per cent, Consumer Durables 1.16 per cent, Metal 1.03 per cent, Healthcare 0.97 per cent and FMCG 0.82 per cent. Among losers, Capital Goods fell by 0.69 per cent and Power 0.33 per cent. Market breadth turned slightly weak as 1,491 stocks ended in red, 1,471 stocks finished in green while 115 ruled steady. Total turnover rose to Rs 3,029.89 crore from Rs 2,899.45 crore yesterday.

MARUTI HOLDS TOP POSITION IN CAR MARKET

Country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India continues its dominance on the Indian roads with its four models, led by entry level small car Alto heading the top ten best sellers list in April-June quarter this fiscal.
According to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) data, the company's Dzire, Swift and WagonR were the second, third and fourth biggest selling models in the quarter.
Rival Hyundai's Grand i10 is the fifth largest selling model in India during the period under review followed by Honda Cars India's sedan City at the sixth position.
Maruti Suzuki India's (MSI) Alto sold 64,573 units in the April-June quarter this fiscal as compared to 56,335 units sold in the same period of previous fiscal.
It is followed by compact sedan Dzire, with 50,951 units sold during the quarter. The company had sold 49,259 units of the sedan in the same period of previous fiscal.
Similarly, compact hatchback Swift continues to hold on to the third position during the April-June quarter this fiscal with 47,442 units sold during the period. Swift sales stood at 48,120 units in same period of previous fiscal.
Wagon R, with 38,156 units sold during the first quarter of 2014-15, retains the fourth position in passenger car segment. MSI had sold 35,141 units of the hatchback in the same period of 2013-14.
Hyundai's Grand i10 comes in at fifth position, with 26,830 units sold during the first quarter replacing i10 which has now moved out of the top ten.
Honda's mid-sized sedan City sold 21,985 units during the April-June quarter to become the sixth largest selling model in India. It had sold 6,949 units in the year-ago period.
Hyundai's newly launched compact sedan Xcent, with 21,524 units sold during the first quarter, stood at seventh position.
The South Korean carmaker's entry level model Eon with a total sales of 19,379 units during the first quarter was the eighth best selling model, down from sixth with sale of 24,526 units in the same period last fiscal.
MSI's Celerio, which was launched earlier this year at the Auto Expo, is now the ninth best selling model in India with 16,541 units in the April-June quarter.
Honda's compact sedan Amaze has moved on to the 10th spot, down from seventh last year, with 15,182 units sold during the first quarter this year as against 15,853 units during the first quarter of 2013-14.
Models like Hyundai's Santro, Verna and MSI's Ritz, which were in the top ten during the first quarter of last year, failed to make it to the top ten selling models this year.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 21 & REVIEW

CHOPPY AND VOLATILE MOVEMENTS

Nifty continued its gains for the Fifth day in a row . Nifty is close to strong resistance of 7750. However, it becomes weak only if it closes below 7575. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 7725, 7760 and find support at 7645 7605, for Tuesday. While Global cues, Quarterly results and Funds flow are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market can be expected to trade in a zigzag fashion with alternate bouts of bullishness and bearishness. profit booking after the opening and mild recovery thereafter.

Nifty 7684 +20

Review for Monday, 21st July , 2014 :: Zigzag Movements with Bullish Bias … !!!
Market opened better and traded in a choppy manner with bullish bias through out the day and closed with a gain of about 0.25%. 25 of Nifty stock gained but broader market was better with Advance Decline ratio at 1.5:1. Media, FMCG, Energy indices gained while PSU Bank, Realty, Infra, IT and Metal indices were weak. ITC, HDFC, Reliance contributed more than 30 points to Nifty’s gain while Infy, L&T, SBI dragged down by about 15 points.
Indusind Bank, HDFC, Asian Paints, Reliance and Grasim remained major gainers among Nifty stocks while DLF, IDFC, Tata Power, GAIL, SSLT remained losers.
Century Textiles, Sun TV, Bata India, Indusind Bank, Jubilant Food remained major gainers among F&O stocks while HDIL, Canara Bank, Ashok Leyland, DLF and DishTV declined among F&O stocks. 

SENSEX @ 2 WEEK HIGH

The benchmark Sensex today rose for the fifth day and ended 73 points higher at two-week closing peak on continued foreign capital inflows after bluechips, including RIL and HDFC, reported robust quarterly earnings. Besides, improving macroeconomic indicators, monsoon progress and positive cues from global markets supported the buoyancy in domestic indices, brokers said. Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) rose by 2 per cent after the company posted better-than-expected results on Saturday. HDFC shares gained 3 per cent after it poster higher consolidated profit. HDFC Bank scrip, however, slipped even as it reported 21 per cent growth in June quarter profit. The earnings season had started on a good note with tech giants Infosys and TCS exceeding investor expectations, brokers added. The BSE Sensex resumed higher at 25,776.54 and firmed up further to 25,861.15 on initial buying coupled with higher global cues. However, it lost some momentum due to fag-end selling pressure as Asian markets turned lower amid a weak start in the European markets. The index ended at 25,715.17, showing a gain of 73.61 points or 0.29 per cent. This is its best closing since July 7 when it crossed 26,100 mark. With today's gain, the Sensex has gained over 700 points in five straight sessions. "Selective buying in index heavyweights and particularly FMCG sector maintained buying momentum on the bourses," said Nidhi Saraswat, Senior Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio. The NSE 50-share Nifty today moved up by 20.30 points, or 0.26 per cent, to end at 7,684.20. Foreign Portfolio Investors bought shares worth a net Rs 574.47 crore on last Friday as per provisional data. Asian stocks ended lower as indices in China, Hong Kong and South Korea declined by 0.05-0.29 per cent while indices in Singapore and Taiwan moved up by 0.11-0.43 per cent.

 

SKILL GAP A BIG THREAT

More organisations globally are planning to go on a hiring spree over the next 12 months but are concerned that they will not be able to find qualified candidates, a PwC report says. As many as 63 per cent of the CEOs surveyed for the report said that availability of key skills is the biggest business threat to their organisation's growth. The global PwC survey of over 1,300 CEOs in 68 countries reveals that after a number of years of headcount cuts, half of organisations surveyed are looking to hire again.
Despite the positive outlook for jobs, PwC's research revealed that business leaders are more concerned than ever about being able to find the right people to fill these roles.
"The gap between the skills of the current workforce and the skills businesses need to achieve their growth plans is widening. Despite rising business confidence equating to more jobs, organisations are struggling to find the right people to fill these positions," PwC global HR consulting leader Michael Rendell said. CEOs in Africa (96 per cent), the South East Asian nations (90 per cent) and South Africa (87 per cent) are most concerned about the lack of skills. Technology and engineering firms are struggling the most with the shortage of skilled employees. The research showed business leaders are looking to the government to do more to help to plug the skills gap. Two in five CEOs said creating a skilled workforce should be one of government's top three priorities and over half of respondents said regulation is hampering their ability to attract talent. "CEOs are laying much of the blame for skills shortage at the feet of government and legislators, but they should accept that they need to re-think the way they think about, look for and value their employees," Rendell said.

BRICS SHAKE UP ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE

By creating their own multilateral financial institutions, the BRICS emerging-market powers are shaking up global economic governance but remain far from dismantling the post-war system dominated by the West. For the past 70 years, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have been the pillars of the world's economic system, coming to the rescue of countries in trouble and supporting development projects, respectively. But the Bretton Woods institutions are regularly criticised for their inability to reflect the growing and important contributions of the major emerging economies to the global economy. China, the world's second-largest economy, continues to have just slightly more voting power in the IMF than Italy, about five times smaller. And, since their creation in 1944, the IMF and the World Bank have only been led by Americans and Europeans. "Broader global governance reforms have become stalled, despite the many commitments made by advanced economies to emerging markets to give them a more prominent role in international financial institutions and other international forums," said Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University and a former IMF expert. In this context, the launch Tuesday of a development bank and an emergency reserve fund by the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - appears to be a concrete attempt to address those inequities. "If the existing institutions were doing their jobs perfectly, there would be no need to go to the trouble of creating a new bank, a new fund," said Paulo Nogueira Batista, who represents Brazil and 10 other countries at the IMF, in an interview. The mere creation of the two BRICS institutions sends a strong signal to Western powers, where some doubt the ability of the five powerhouses to surmount their individual needs and ambitions. The launches "are significant actions that represent a game changer as they turn statements and rhetoric about cooperation among these countries into reality," Prasad said. Still, many areas of uncertainty cloud the new BRICS structures, giving the IMF and the World Bank a long lead on their fledgling rivals. For now, only the BRICS countries will be able to draw from the USD50 billion in the New Development Bank and USD100 billion in the Contingent Reserve Arrangement.

However, proof of the new institutions' effectiveness will come when other countries knock at their door for money. "Will the BRICS take the financial risk to lend to other countries? And what conditions will they impose?" said an IMF official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Accustomed to bailing out a country, and being reimbursed, in exchange for austerity conditions, the IMF has the kind of expertise that "doesn't happen overnight," the official said. Some also have concerns that the BRICS institutions -- dominated by China -- will be less careful about safeguarding the environment or fighting corruption when they make their financing deals. Aware of their current limitations, the BRICS made a point to say they were working closely with the IMF. Some of their financing would be available only to countries already receiving Fund assistance. Dilma Rousseff, the president of Brazil, said the creation of the BRICS institutions did not mean her country was moving away from the IMF. "We have not the least interest in distancing ourselves from the IMF," she said. "On the contrary, we wish to democratise it and make it as representative as possible." Unsurprisingly, the Bretton Woods institutions responded with offers of cooperation. The IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, said in a statement Wednesday that her staff would be "delighted" to work with the BRICS team on the reserve fund. The World Bank, facing other new development rivals and undergoing a major internal restructuring, welcomed the arrival of an "invaluable partner" in the battle against poverty, a bank spokesman told AFP. This display of friendliness, however, could in time give way to rivalries and battles for influence in the corridors of the 188-nation institutions, based in Washington. "The new institutions aren't created against anyone," said Nogueira Batista, the IMF representative. "But they are a first step toward a multilateral world."