India
is a "strong market" for gains and the NSE index Nifty is
likely to touch 8,650 points by December due to government's reform
measures and few credible alternatives within the emerging markets,
RBS Private Wealth said today. In January, RBS had made year-end
estimate of 7,700 points for the Nifty, but has revised it upwards
citing the prospects which the economy holds for a bull run. "We
expect the investor interest, especially from the foreign
institutional investors to continue, and events like the budget will
only help. We have a year-end target of 8,650 for the Nifty,"
RBS chief investment officer Rajesh Cheruvu, told reporters here. He
said that with growth bottoming out, deficits on current account and
fiscal fronts under check and relatively cheaper valuations vis-a-vis
the developed world, India is at a 2003-like scenario, which had led
to a long bull run. Cheruvu said that apart from the reform measures
undertaken by the Narendra Modi-led BJP government, lack of any
credible alternatives within the emerging markets also make India a
favourite for global money. In terms of investment destination, China
is bottoming out, India's position is improving while Brazil and
Russia are declining, RBS's chief economist Mark McFarland said. The
July 10 Budget of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will not offer strong
measures on the fiscal consolidation front as the BJP-led Government
approaches elections in important states like Maharashtra, but will
be a growth oriented one, Cheruvu said. "On the fiscal
consolidation front, I think the Budget will have to continue with
the subsidies but offer comfort to the market through the stress on
discipline," he said. However, he was quick to add that
investors, who generally seek steps on fiscal prudence, will be
sensitive to the compulsions of the government and their interest
will not be dented. On the monsoon, Cheruvu said that in the
likelihood of the El Nino (climate phenomena) factor playing out, the
RBI is unlikely to meet its January 2015 target of containing retail
inflation at 8 per cent. The supply side measures being undertaken by
the government will bear fruit in 15-18 months and the inflation will
come down to the 6 per cent target set by RBI by January 2016, he
said. McFarland said that he expects the rupee to trade at around 58
level against the dollar till June 2015. He said the revival in the
US, a key market for Indian exports, bodes well for the country.
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