The International Energy Agency today
cut its 2014 forecast for oil demand to 92.7 million barrels a day
owing to weaker than expected global economic growth. The revised
forecast was 130,000 barrels a day lower than the IEA's estimate a month
earlier. It reflects the "growing realisation that macroeconomic
conditions, although still likely to strengthen in the second half of
the year, will probably now do so at a less dramatic pace than
previously forecast," a statement said. International Monetary Fund
chief Christine Lagarde suggested last week that the IMF's 3.6 per cent
global growth forecast for 2014 might have to be trimmed back. Her
warning that the global economic recovery could be "less robust than
expected" appears to have been borne out by recently released economic
data. Europe's biggest economies this week reported slumping industrial
production -- a key indicator of economic health. And the US said late
last month that business activity had declined by a steep 2.9 per cent
in the first quarter of the year, its biggest quarterly contraction in
five years. On the supply side, members of the OPEC cartel pumped out
40,000 barrels a day less in June to 30.03 million on a daily basis,
with a decline in Iraqi output partly offset by small increases from
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola. The IEA said an offensive by
jihadists in north Iraq had cut output by 260,000 barrels a day in June
to 3.17 million, after fighting forced the closure of the country's
biggest refinery and slashed production from the giant Kirkuk field.
The prized oil fields have been protected physically from the fighting
so far, but the IEA warned there were still risks that the militants
could damage oil installations. "Should ISIS militants strike the
southern oil network -- now churning out nearly all of Iraq's supply to
world markets and generating most of Baghdad's revenue -- Asia, which
takes roughly 60 per cent of Basra Light shipments, would be most
vulnerable," it said. China is the biggest buyer of Iraqi oil while
India is the second biggest, the IEA noted. In Baghdad, the government
accused Kurdish peshmerga fighters of seizing two key northern oil
fields near the disputed city of Kirkuk, as relations between Baghdad
and the autonomous Kurdistan regional government (KRG) hit a new low.
"The oil ministry strongly condemns the seizure and control of crude oil
(wells) in the Kirkuk and Bey Hassan oil fields this morning by groups
of Kurdish peshmerga forces," a statement said. The fields have a
combined daily output capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, a ministry
spokesman said. Both fields have been offline since March.
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