ASTRO GUIDE FOR NIFTY

SELL ON RISE

During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Sravana  in Capricorn  to Revathi in Pisces.  

Sun transits in Visakha   in  Gemini and Cancer (moves to Cancer on 16^th night).  Mercury transits  in Aardra in Gemini.

  Mars  transits in  Chitta  constellation in Libra in vargottamamsa . Rahu and Ketu had changed signed their signs and are now in Virgo and Pisces.    Saturn  in  Retrograde

motion from  2^nd March till 20^th July and presently in  Visakha  constellation in  Aries navamsa .  

Jupiter transits in Pushyami in Cancer . Grand square was operational last week and has separated. Hence,volatility should reasonably come down.  Further, Nifty’s range from Tuesday to Friday (15^th to 18^th) would act as a reference range for the next Three weeks and Nifty would be bullish above the high of the range and would be bearish below the Low of this range.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (14.07.2014 to 18.07.2014) (Topped out for Short Term)…  

NIFTY::7460 (-292)  

Nifty had a roller coaster ride last week in view of Railway and Finance Budgets and closed with a massive loss of about 3.75%. While Nifty’s loss does not seem so alarming, certain sectoral scrips were beaten down out of shape. However, much awaited correction has come in most stocks. However, matter of concern is that Bank stocks (constituting major chunk of Nifty), because of Government’s decision to raise equity from public issues, may face pressure in Medium term and could underperform leading to a drag on the Nifty. Further, market had run up too fast recently and the fundamentals have to catch up with this rise and during this time market could be under consolidation. Sector specific / stock specific approach is most important to beat the market.

While Budget, per se, was Good and the seed of reforms was sown and could be expected to deliver the fruits during the course of time, it can not be termed Great with big bang reforms / ideas, which the market was expecting. However, the same could be expected in the next Budget which is only about 7 months later. Government aims to achieve high growth with low inflation and contain the deficit.  Nifty trading well below 20 DMA is bearish in short term and 50 DMA which is around 7375 could be expected to lend immediate support. Nifty may hover between 20DMa(7600) and 50DMA(7375) for some time and could bottom out around 100 DMA(around 7000) in course of time before commencing a new journey to make new high before the next Budget.

Post Budget correction in most stocks could be a welcome feature for long term investors who had missed out previously. Technically, Medium and Long term trend is quite bullish and short term  trends keeps vacillating..  Present bull run is only about

 8 months old, further rise over a period of next One year can be expected  despite the sharp initial rise. Inview of the sharp rise, a consolidation or reasonable correction can be expected, which would be healthy for the market.

Government’s policies would indicate their thrust areas and sectors that would benefit out of it. However,

Infra, Power , which were expected to be the thrust areas were given their right place.

Budget would spell out the major policies of the Government.. IIP numbers declared after the market hours on Friday were quite positive and in case of a sustained turn around, Government / RBI would have a sufficient space for furthering reform process.

Stock specific approach is to be followed and general positive sentiment can be expected to continue over Medium term.

Sectoral rotation has become order of the day

 and different sectors should be tracked to discern individual stock trends.

  Investors need to accumulate quality stocks while traders need to be ever vigilant.

Last week’s sharp fall in most stocks could be taken as  an opportunity to Buy for Medium / Long term.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of 20.12 , which is about 12% above the

 long term PE multiple.  Hence, further upside ( 8000+ or 8500+ is possible during the year / befre next Budget)  

in view of the  stable and performing Government  at the centre as earnings would go up because

of favourable atmosphere .

 As a very stable and proactive Government has been  formed, market can be expected to go

up further over medium / long term and market is always ahead of Fundamentals and this time is no exception.

Further, Nifty had been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and  a  powerful breakout

has taken place  for an initial target of about 8000 / 8500. When fundamentals too start improving, further rise over a period can be expected.

 Hence strong long term support would be around 6550 level and Medium term support is 7000.

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face

resistance at 7550,  7655, 7720 and find support at 7375, 7290, 7200.

Nifty, in  short term beareishness,   would come out of the same  when it closes above 7650. Nifty appears to have topped out for the time being and gets into a mode of correction / consolidation.

For the next week, break down level is 7350 and the break out level is 7900. It can be expected to trade between 7375 and 7650 and real weakness for the week would set in only in case of a close below 7350.

Advice for Traders ::

Much awaited correction by Medium / Long term investors is under way as most stocks have reasonably corrected. Stock specific approach may be followed and staggered buying may be resorted to by long term investors in case of quality stocks. As long as Nifty holds above 7375 during the week, further pullback can be expected upto about 7500 / 7650. On the other hand, if it slips below 7350 ,  pullback ma not sustain and a deeper correction can be expected.

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa