The
country's agriculture growth is likely to remain muted at 1 per cent
in FY'2015 largely due to strong statistical base-effect, rating
agency Crisil said today. Monsoons are currently 24 per cent below
the long period average, which is worse than the deficiency seen in
fiscals 2009 or 2012. While 2009 turned out to be a drought year,
rains recovered sharply in the latter half of the season in 2012.
"This year, we believe there is a higher probability of a
turnaround - just like in 2012. This is consistent with the IMD
forecast of rainfall deficiency reducing to less than 10 per cent by
the end of the season. "But despite the recovery, we believe
that agriculture growth will remain muted at 1 per cent in fiscal
2015 as a strong statistical base-effect from last year's growth will
kick in," the agency said in a report here. Moreover, some
damage to sowing has already taken place with pulses and coarse
cereals likely to be the most severely impacted. The only saving
grace is rice, which alone accounts for 70 per cent of food grain
production and has been less impacted due to better rains in the
North East, it said. Deficient rainfall has affected the sowing
pattern. As of July 25, rice sowing was 16 per cent below normal
compared with 43 per cent for coarse cereals, 33 per cent for pulses
and 17 per cent of total oilseeds, Crisil said. As July and August
are the critical months for sowing, the weighted sowing deficiency as
of August-end is a strong indicator of kharif foodgrain production in
any year. In FY10 and FY12, as the weighted sowing deficiency
improved by end of August, food grain output rose sharply, even
managing to surpass the long-term average of 114.8 million tonne, it
said. This year, too, if rains pick up in the coming weeks, foodgrain
output may not be severely impacted. But the high growth of last
fiscal will mean the statistical Y-o-Y trend in farm output will be
flat - just the way it was in 2012-13, when production recovered but
agricultural growth came in at 1.4 per cent following up on a 5 per
cent growth in 2011-12, Crisil said. After a bumper agricultural
growth last year, fiscal 2015 has been tepid. In June, IMD forecast a
33 per cent probability of deficient monsoon and 38 per cent chance
of a sub-normal one, it added.
DEFICIT
TO COME DOWN
Deficit
in monsoon rains has come down and good rainfall is expected in the
coming days that will help complete sowing operations, Agriculture
Minister Radha Mohan Singh said today. He also said that no state
government has declared drought yet. However, the Centre is prepared
to help those states which seek any help for drought-hit areas. As
per the Met Department, the overall rainfall deficit has come down to
25 per cent till July 23. Monsoons
are currently 24 per cent below the long period average, which is
worse than the deficiency seen in fiscals 2009 or 2012, according to
sources.
"The
monsoon deficit has come down. As per the Met Department, monsoon
rains are good so far and is likely to be good in the coming days,"
Singh told reporters. Asked if there is drought concern in some parts
of the country, he said, "We give assistance to states only when
they declare drought. So far, no state governments have written to us
that they have declared drought in a particular region." "We
are ready to help them. Even states have separate funds to utilise
for this purpose," he said, adding that the Centre is in regular
touch with state governments. On rising prices of tomato that have
touched Rs 80 per kg in the national capital, the minister said, "The
supply is sufficient. Production in 2013-14 was two per cent higher
than the previous year." The revival of monsoon in northern and
central parts of country has given a push to the sowing operations.
As per the official data, the total acreage covered under kharif
crops like paddy remained lower by just about 27 per cent at 53.32
million hectares till last week, as against 72.91 million hectares in
the year ago. Sowing of kharif crop begins with the onset of
southwest monsoon in June.
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