More
travelers are flying than ever before, creating a daunting challenge
for airlines: keep passengers safe in an ever more crowded airspace.
Each day, 8.3 million people around the globe -- roughly the
population of New York City -- step aboard an airplane. They almost
always land safely. Some flights, however, are safer than others. The
accident rate in Africa, for instance, is nearly five times that of
the worldwide average, according to the International Civil Aviation
Organization, part of the United Nations. Such trouble spots also
happen to be where air travel is growing the fastest, putting the
number of fliers on course to double within the next 15 years. "In
some areas of the world, there's going to be a learning curve,"
says Patrick Smith, a commercial airline pilot for 24 years and
author of "Cockpit Confidential." But that doesn't
necessarily mean that the skies are going to become more dangerous.
"We've already doubled the volume of airplanes and passengers
and what's happened is we've gotten safer." To meet the influx
of passengers, airlines will need to hire and train enough qualified
pilots and mechanics. Governments will have to develop and enforce
safety regulations. New runways with proper navigation aids will have
to be constructed. Industry experts acknowledge the difficulties, but
note that aviation has gone through major growth spurts before and
still managed to improve safety along the way. Last year, 3.1 billion
passengers flew, twice the total in 1999. Yet, the chances of dying
in a plane crash were much lower. Since 2000, there were less than
three fatalities per 10 million passengers, according to an
Associated Press analysis of crash data provided by aviation
consultancy Ascend. In the 1990s, there were nearly eight; during the
1980s there were 11; and the 1970s had 26 deaths per 10 million
passengers. The last two weeks have been bad for aviation with the
shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines flight followed by separate
crashes in Taiwan and Mali. But the rare trio of tragedies represents
just a fraction of the 93,500 daily airline flights worldwide.
"Aviation safety is continuing to get better. A sudden spate of
accidents doesn't mean that the industry has suddenly become less
safe," says Paul Hayes, director of air safety for Ascend.
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