Thursday, May 2, 2013

GROWTH WILL BE 6%

India is likely to grow at a rate of 6 per cent in 2013-14 and the average headline inflation is pegged at 6.5 per cent, according to a Reserve Bank sponsored survey. "Reserve Bank's survey of outside professional forecasters shows anticipation of a modest recovery with growth in 2013-14 at 6.0 per cent from 5.0 per cent in the preceding year," RBI said in a release on a survey conducted by 'Professional Forecasters'. On inflation, RBI said, "Average WPI inflation to moderate to 6.5 per cent (in FY14) from 7.3 per cent. Survey shows that inflation expectations have moderated slightly, while business expectations remain subdued." Forecasters expect the India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) to come down to 4.5 per cent of the GDP in 2013-14 from 5.1 per cent in 2012-13. The economic growth rate during fiscal 2012-13 declined to decade's low of 5 per cent. The overall inflation in March fell to 5.96 per cent. Last month, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory panel had pegged the growth rate for the current fiscal at 6.4 per cent, up from 5 per cent in 2012-13. The PMEAC had projected inflation for the fiscal at 6 per cent and CAD to come down to 4.7 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent in 2012-13. The CAD, which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange, shot up to an historic high of 6.7 per cent of the GDP in the December quarter on high gold and oil imports. External agencies also see rise in growth ahead, with the Asian Development Bank forecasting the country's GDP at 6 per cent this fiscal and World Bank seeing it at 6.1 per cent for the fiscal.

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