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Showing posts from December, 2014

INVESTOR's WEALTH ZOOMS UP BY Rs.28 LAKH CRORES

Stock market investors became richer by a whopping Rs 28 lakh crore in 2014 as a record market rally boosted the valuation of all listed firms to Rs 98.36 lakh crore at the end of year. This was the fourth consecutive year of rise in investor wealth. The year also saw investor wealth hitting Rs 100 lakh crore mark. In 2014, the benchmark Sensex rose by 6,328.74 points or 30 per cent and recorded a record high of 28,822.37 on November 28. This is the highest annual gain since 2009 when it had rallied by 7,817 points. The 30-share gauge ended the year on a positive note at 27,499.42, up 95.88 points. The broader CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange also firmed up by 34.45 points to end at 8,282.70. It has risen by 1,978.7 points or 31.38 per cent for the year 2014. The rise in investor wealth was also on account of the continued rise in the number of listed firms. At present, the total number of listed companies stands at 5,542. Analysts said that Indian stock market saw an excellen…

FORUMS IRE ON SERVICES SECTOR

Services sector in 2014 continued to be under the watchful eyes of various consumer fora which stood by the motto "consumer is the king" and dealt firmly with both government and private entities to protect citizens from unfair trade practices. Benefit of several campaigns like "Jago Grahak Jago" seems to be catching up with the consumers who during the year dared to drag health care giants, banking and insurance major, airlines, Railways, telecom heavy weights and top realtors to various consumer courts for redressal of their grievances. Leading the way, National Consumer Disputes Redressal Commission (NCDRC), the apex consumer body, in August dealt sternly with pharmaceutical giant Novartis India Ltd for over charging and making exorbitant profit on sale of its non-cancerous drug. Holding that the company was indulging in principles which were against ethics and morality, it said the MRP fixed by Ministry of Health or Ministry of Commence was on a higher side and…

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 31 & REVIEW

SECOND HALF BETTER  Nifty                               8248    +2 Nifty traded in a narrow range with bearish bias for most part of the day and recovered sharply towards close of the day to close flat for the day recouping the intraday losses. Nifty needs to close above 8285 to get out of the present narrow movement and become bullish.  Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8290,, 8325 and find support at 8210, 8175 for Wednesday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to witness volatile movements in the forenoon and it could recover / remain generally better in Second half of the day.

WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

MONTHLY ASTRO RANGE...THE REFERENCE RANGE…. !!!
NIFTY :: 8201 (-24) (Consolidation Mode Likely … )
While Nifty closed nearly flat for the week erasing initial gains of the week due to derivative expiry concerns. Derivative series closed negative, one of the few instances in 2014. Parliament session ended without transacting any major business. However, Government’s resolve towards reforms was evident with the promulgation of ordinances on Coal and Insurance.  State Election results were also in line with general expectations. New Derivative series started off on  a  cautious note and would be influenced by corporate results and the reform measures of the Government. Last week’s movement was rather erratic with Nifty closing above 8300 and then closed below 8200 due to derivative expiry pressures. Macro economic scenario continues to be positive with falling crude oil prices but strengthening US $ / depreciating INR is a cause for worry. Next major policy would be the Budget / GST / Refo…

TRADE DEFICIT ROSE 22 TIMES

India's foreign trade rose over 18 times since the launch of economic liberalisation programme in 1991 while the trade deficit widened by more than 22 times. The country's foreign trade (export and import) has increased with an annual average growth rate of 13.42 per cent from USD 42 billion in 1990-91 to USD 765 billion in 2013-14.
However, trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports, jumped to USD 136 billion in 2013-14 from USD 6 billion in 1990-91, according to official data.
Experts attributed declining growth of manufacturing sector to the widening of trade deficit.
"The growth of India's manufacturing sector' declined continuously. From 23-24 per cent share in the GDP, it came down to about 15 per cent currently. This was the main reason for ballooning trade gap," Ajay Sahai, Director General & CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said.
He said that free trade agreements too have impacted the country's trade bal…

GOLD & SLIVER LOOSE SHEEN

Losing its sheen for the second year in a row, gold turned cheaper by over 10 per cent in 2014 as the government tried to divert investors away from this 'unproductive asset', even as import curbs led to a rise in smuggling of the yellow metal. For silver, the year has been even worse with a fall of about 20 per cent in its price. As the year 2014 draws to a close, gold prices have fallen to nearly Rs 26,000 per 10 grams from close to Rs 30,000 at the end of 2013. For silver, the fall has been even sharper at about Rs 36,000 per kg from close to Rs 44,000 at the beginning of 2014. The fall in prices of the two precious metals came amid import curbs on gold for a significant part of the year, even as RBI has now eased some of these curbs. A strong rally in the stock market, which is emerging as a preferred investment class, and sustained selling pressure from bullion stockists, coupled with weak trends in global metal markets, further dampened the sentiment in the precious meta…

SENSEX GAIN OVER 6000 pts

BEST EVER RALLY IN 5 YEARS
Riding high on the sentiments, the stock market is gearing up for its best performance in five years with a rally of over 6,000 points in the benchmark Sensex in 2014 -- which also saw the investors' wealth hitting Rs 100 trillion level for the first time in history. With just four days of trading left this year, the Sensex has rallied by nearly 29 per cent so far in 2014 with a gain of 6,038 points -- the highest annual gain since the year 2009 when the bluechip index had rallied by 7,817 points. Besides, the Sensex also has a chance to clock its second best ever annual rally this year, if it manages to end 2014 with a gain of over 6,500 points (recorded in the year 2007).In percentage terms also, the rally this year is the biggest since 2009 (81 per cent). The year also left behind a trail of bullish fervour even as market participants strongly feel that 2015 would belong to bulls with no major negative factor in sight and market driver FIIs all set to …

MF's REACH Rs 11 TRILLION MARK

Fighting all adversities and a tougher regulatory regime, mutual funds are headed for a cash-rich 2014 with an estimated addition of about Rs three lakh crore to its asset base to become a Rs 11-trillion market.
Helped by a smart rally in the equity market, the mutual funds' assets under management hit a record high of Rs 10.96 lakh crore in October itself and has remained near Rs 10.9 lakh crore as the year draws to a close.
Fund houses are upbeat about the industry performance for the next year as equity markets are expected to continue to deliver making the segment attractive.
"2014 witnessed significant milestones for the mutual fund industry, with assets growing 32 per cent to around Rs 11 lakh crore as on November," industry body AMFI's Chairman and top fund house Reliance Mutual Fund's chief Sundeep Sikka said.
The number of investors have also grown substantially this year, Sikka said, while adding that a rally in markets and improving economic indicators are…

DBT for LPG THE WORLD's LARGEST

The ambitious scheme of giving cash subsidy on cooking gas directly to consumers has become the world's largest direct benefit transfer with 2.5 crore households getting about Rs 550 crore since November 15.
The direct benefit transfer on LPG (DBTL), under which cash subsidy is paid to consumers so that they can buy cooking gas at market price, was rolled out in 54 districts from November 15 and will be extended all over the country from January 1.
"In 54 districts, 75 per cent of the population is now covered by DBTL," Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said here. "DBTL today has become the world's largest direct benefit transfer scheme."
The scheme has surpassed number of beneficiaries in direct benefit transfer programmes in China and Brazil.
Pradhan said he has personally reviewed roll out of the scheme in as many as 42 districts so far and will do so in 10 or so before the end of the year. "Out of such a large number of users joining the scheme, we recei…

WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

FURTHER PULLBACK... !!
Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Moola in Sagittarius to Sathabhisham in Aquarius. Sun transits in  Moola   in  Sagittarius. Mercury   transits  in    Poorvashadha  constellation in  Sagittarius. Venus transits in  Poorvashadha  in Sagittarius. Mars , exalted,  transits in    Sravana  constellations in  Capricorn .   Saturn transits in  Scorpio  in Anuradha in Leo  Navamsa. Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9th   to 8th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Pisces  navamsa . Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively. Nifty’s range between 26th December and 29th December(Friday to Monday) would be the reference range for the next month and Nifty would be bullish above the high and bearish below the low for the rest of the month. Uranus in square to Pluto caused huge volatility breaking supports and resistances.
Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (15.12.2014 to 19.12…

VILLAGE HOUSEHOLD's AVERAGE INCOME Rs. 10 LAKH

Households in rural areas hold assets worth over Rs 10 lakh on average, less than half the holdings by those in cities, says a government survey. At the same time, villages account for higher proportion of families owning some physical and financial assets at 98 per cent, higher than 94 per cent in urban areas. "Around 98 per cent of rural households and around 94 per cent of urban households in India owned some physical and financial assets as on June 30, 2012. Average value of assets (AVA) owned by a household was Rs 10.07 lakh for the rural areas and Rs 22.85 lakh for the urban areas," said the 70th round of National Sample Survey's All India Debt and Investment Survey (AIDIS). According to the survey, about 31 per cent of the rural households and 22 per cent of the urban households reported debt (cash loan) outstanding as on June 30, 2012. The average amount of debt (AOD) for a rural household was Rs 32,522 and that for an urban household was Rs 84,625. The indebtedn…

GOA...TOURIST HOTSPOT

Famous for its sunny beaches, churches, museums and a vibrant nightlife, Goa has topped the list of destinations in India where most people want to head to usher in the New Year, according to a report. The report titled 'Top New Year Destinations' by travel portal TripAdvisor, highlights the places where people from India are planning to visit, to welcome 2015. "Getting out of the city to bring in the New Year has been a trend for a long while now. Be it India or abroad, everyone is looking for interesting places to visit. As a large number of Indians get ready to pack their bags and travel to destinations, known, as well as the offbeat, Goa remains a favourite in this year's list," TripAdvisor Country Manager Nikhil Ganju said today. The coastal state is followed by Dubai, Udaipur (Rajasthan), Manali (Himachal Pradesh) and Jaisalmer (Rajasthan), the report said. "What is the most interesting to see is how accommodation preferences have evolved over the year…

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 22 & REVIEW

MIDSESSION SUBDUED
Nifty                               8225   +66

Nifty opened better with a gap following global cues and traded generally better but closed at the lower end of the day suggesting profit booking at higher levels. With decent rise for Two days, Short term bearish trend appears to have reversed but would be confirmed on another positive close. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8265,, 8300 and find support at 8185, 8150 for Monday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to be generally subdued after the opening session and closing hour is sensitive.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 19 & REVIEW

MID SESSION BETTER Nifty                               8159   +129 Nifty opened better following US Fed decision and gained further to recover most of the week’s losses and closed with a gain of about 1.50%. Nifty once again closed above  100DMA and appears to have made a short term bottom.  Stop loss for Nifty short positions may be maintained at 8200(on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8200,, 8240 and find support at 8120, 8080 for Friday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to be better during midsession.

INDIA LAUCHES GSLV MK III WITH CREW MODULE SUCCESSFULLY

Taking its baby steps towards realising India's ambition to send humans into space, ISRO today successfully tested the atmospheric re-entry of a crew module after its heaviest launch vehicle GSLV Mk-III blasted off from here. Exactly 5.4 minutes after lift off at 9.30 AM from the Second Launch Pad of Satish Dhawan Space Centre here, the module separated from the rocket at an altitude of 126 km and re-entered Earth's atmosphere (about 80 km from sea level). It descended in a ballistic mode and splashed down into the Bay of Bengal, some 180 km from Indira Point, the southern tip of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The LVM3-X flight with active S200 and L110 propulsion stages and a passive C25 stage with dummy engine, carried CARE (Crew Module Atmospheric Re-entry Experiment) as its payload. Weighing over three tonnes, the 2.7-metre tall cup cake shaped crew module with a diameter of 3.1 metres, which features aluminium alloy internal structure with composite panels and ablative …

PLANNING COMMISSION SLIPS TO HISTORY

It has commissioned 12 five-year plans and six annual plans involving fund outlays of over Rs 200 lakh crore in its 65-year-history, but the fabled Planning Commission is itself set to be history as the government gears up to replace it with a new-age institution in the new year. The Plan Panel, as it is commonly known as, was set up by a simple government resolution in March 1950 and has withstood many political and economic upheavals, as also some occasional controversies, including those related to its poverty estimates as also about a huge toilet renovation bill and foreign tour expenses of its last Deputy Chairman. It was a decisive mandate for a change of government during a politically and economically supercharged 2014 that finally led to its epitaph being written. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced in his first Independence Day speech this August that the Commission would get a replacement, while speculation is rife that the name and structure of the new body may be revea…

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 18 & REVIEW

CLOSING SESSION BETTER Nifty                               8030  -38 Nifty fell sharply in the opening hour trading below 8000 mark too and slowly recovered thereafter and trimmed the losses and fell for 8 out of last 9 trading sessions. Nifty closed below  100DMA and needs to go above that level by weekend to remain stable.  Stop loss for Nifty short positions may be trailed to 8200(on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8070,, 8110 and find support at 7990, 7950 for Thursday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  could remain subdued in the forenoon and recover towards close. US Fed (FOMC) meet outcome could influence the opening.

VILLAGE IS SMALL...DEPOSITS VERY HIGH

Kerala's nearly Rs 90,000 crore of NRI deposits, which is highest in the country, pales into oblivion when compared to the over Rs 1,000 crore that the members of this sleepy Dharmaj village near here cumulatively have in their banks. The tiny Dharmaj village in Anand district, about 70 km from here, has a population of only 11,333 but has as many as 13 banks. For the past several decades, NRIs in this village have been depositing money in banks and post offices and the kitty today has grown to over Rs 1,000 crore, making it one of the richest villages in the country and with the highest NRI deposits. Deputy general manager of Vadodara division of Central Bank of India, R N Hirve told PTI that NRIs of this village prefer to park their money in banks which are mostly state-run banks and therefore the deposit in the banks have now cumulatively run into more than Rs 1,000 crore. Rich flow of funds has made Dharmaj one of the richest and most literate villages not only in the state bu…

OIL PRICES FURTHER DOWN

Oil suffered fresh losses in Asia today, sinking to new multi-year lows as dealers watch Russia's ruble crisis and await the latest US crude supply report, analysts said. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for January delivery sank USD 1.16 in mid-morning trade to USD 54.77 while Brent crude for February fell 82 cents to USD 59.19 on the contract's first day of trading. Brent for January finished down USD 1.20 at USD 59.86 in London, after slipping below the psychological USD 60 for the first time since July 2009. Oil investors are closely watching the situation in crude producer Russia after the ruble on Tuesday crashed to new record lows against the dollar, losing some 20 percent in value. The slump came despite the country's central bank hiking interest rates from 10.5 per cent to 17 per cent. Russia's economy has been battered by slumping oil prices and Western sanctions over Moscow's support for Ukrainian separatists. "Should oil prices fall further, th…

INDIVIDUAL WEALTH DOUBLES

Faster economic growth will help individuals' wealth in India to more than double to Rs 514 trillion over the next five years, while growing at an annual rate of about 15 per cent, a new report said today.
Interestingly, almost half of the individual wealth is kept in physical assets including real estate and gold. "Total individual wealth is expected more than double to Rs 514 trillion in FY19 from Rs 257 trillion crore in FY14, registering a CAGR of 14.86 per cent," Karvy Private Wealth said in its report released here. The study takes into account wealth held by individuals across financial assets and physical assets, including real estate, gold, diamond, silver and platinum.
The personal holding of gold in the country is around 22,000 tonne, the largest in the world. As of end FY14, the total individual wealth stood at Rs 257.4 trillion, an increase of 27.5 per cent over the past year. The wealth held by individuals in financial assets has grown by 84 per cent during t…

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 17 & REVIEW

SECOND HALF BETTER
Nifty                               8068  -152 After opened with lower gap and Nifty went down further to close nearer to day’s low level with a loss of more than 150 points and closed well below 8100 mark. Nifty closed nearer to 100DMA and if it does not take support around this level, further fall can be expected.  Stop loss for Nifty short positions may be trailed to 8250(on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8110,, 8145 and find support at 8025, 7990 for Wednesday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market is expected to generally  recover in Second half of the day.

INFLATION IN UK @ 12 YEAR LOW

Britain's annual inflation rate slid to a 12-year low of 1.0 per cent in November, driven down by tumbling oil prices, official data showed today. The 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from a rate of 1.3 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement. "Food and motor fuel prices, which have historically been upward contributors to the CPI 12-month rate, are currently reducing it by 0.4 percentage points," the ONS noted. Oil suffered another dizzying plunge today, with benchmark Brent North Sea crude sliding to a five-year low under USD 60 a barrel as markets were rocked by shrinking Chinese manufacturing and fresh turmoil in Russia, traders said. "Inflation has been steadily falling over the second half of 2014, and the recent sharp fall in the oil price has accelerated this trend," said Ben Brettell, senior economist at stockbrokers Hargreaves Lansdown. Britain's economy is outperforming the neighbouring eurozone but …

SENSEX POSTS BIGGEST FALL IN 2014

The benchmark BSE Sensex tanked 538.12 points, its worst single-day drop this year, to slip below 27,000-mark while the wider Nifty crashed below 8,100 level due to capital outflows amid weak economic data and sharp falls in global markets. A weakening rupee which slumped to a 13-month low and tumbling global markets on renewed concerns over growth as crude oil prices crahsed to fresh multi-years low, accelerated selling activity on the bourses, brokers said.
Meanwhile, the rupee tumbled by 64 paise, or 1 per cent, to hit a 13-month low of 63.58 against the dollar (intra-day).
Globally, Brent crude slumped to nearly USD 59 for the first time since 2009.
The 30-share Sensex closed at 26,781.44 points, down by 538.12 points, or 1.97 per cent. Today's drop is the biggest since September 3, 2013 when the BSE index tumbled by 651 points.  After cracking the 8,100-mark, the NSE Nifty touched the day's low of 8,052.60 before settling down by 152 points, or 1.85 per cent, at 8,067.60.
Indi…

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 16 & REVIEW

ZIGZAG MOVEMENTS... Nifty                               8220  -4 After opening with Gap down due to global cues, Nifty remained steady and closed flat for the day. Nifty appears to be in consolidation mode for a minor pullback.  Stop loss for Nifty short positions may be trailed to 8350(on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8260,, 8295 and find support at 8180, 8145 for Tuesday.   While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market is expected to trade in a zigzag manner with alternate bouts of bullishness and bearishness.