NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 28th & REVIEW

RBI POLICY HOLDS KEY...

Inputs by

Dr.Bhuvanagiri Amaranatha Sastry

Astro Technical Analyst

Saketha Consultants, Hyderabad

sastry.saaketa@gmail.com

09848014561

The week started off on a negative note with Nifty falling by more than 2% and closing below 6150 mark. It is close to the lower end of the last Seven week’s range and any further fall due to negative RBI Policy could weaken the sentiment further and trigger a sell off. However, most stocks are already very weak. PSU Banks and rate sensitive stocks were nervous ahead of RBI Policy on Tuesday.  Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 6175, 6210 and find support at 6095, 6060, for Tuesday. While Global cues, Q3 results,  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position , RBI Policy can be expected to give direction to the market and any smart rise may be utilized to reduce long positions in view of the overall weakness and the FOMC decision lateron.

Nifty                               6136     -131

Review for Monday, 27th January, 2014 ::  Black Monday.... !!

Market opened weak following global cues and could not have any meaningful pullback and traded with further bearish bias to close with a loss of more than 2%. 45 of Nifty stocks closed in the red and braoder market too was quite negative with Advance Decline ratio at 1:5.5. Bank and other rate sensitive sectors remained very weak ahead of RBI’s policy on Tuesday. Realty, Bank, Metal, Media , Auto and Infra indices were quite weak and no sectoral index ended in the green. Hind Unileverl HCL Tech, Cipla and ITC managed to close in the green while JP Associates, DLF, Ranbaxy, Tata Motors, Tata Steel remained major losers among Nifty stocks. On the whole, it was another Black Monday.

Among F&O stocks Glenmark, Hind Unilever, HCL Tech, Cipla and ITC      gained while JP Associates, JP Power, HDIL, GMR Infra, IRB, IB Realestate and DLF suffered major losses. 

SENSEX RECORDS BIGGEST LOSS IN 2014

Hit by a global sell-off, the Sensex today plummeted over 426 points, in the biggest drop in about five months, on fears linked to US monetary stimulus tapering and investors turning cautious ahead of the RBI policy meet. The sentiment further dampened after the rupee slipped past the 63-mark versus dollar as a rout in emerging market currencies continued. Reports said Argentina abandoning support of its peso on the open market affected investors. After opening nearly 235 points lower, the BSE 30-share Sensex remained in the negative terrain throughout the day. It touched a low of 20,688.03, before settling at 20,707.45, a drop of 426.11 points or 2.02 per cent compared to Friday's close. This was the biggest drop since the 651.47-point plunge on September 3, 2013. Today's closing also marks the weakest level in 3 weeks. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank led 27 losers in Sensex lower. Tata Motors and Tata Steel slid by over 6 per cent each. A bout of uncertainty has gripped investors, especially those betting on rate-sensitive banking, auto and realty, after the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan called inflation a "destructive disease" last week. Hopes of a rate cut had faded after a panel recommended making retail inflation a priority. "...there is an anticipation in the market that RBI will keep its interest rates high in spite of some corrections seen in the inflation numbers," said Jignesh Chaudhary, Head Of Research, Veracity Broking Services. Overall, 1,952 stocks declined while 643 gained on the BSE -- meaning seven out of every ten stocks ended lower. All 12 BSE sectoral indices ended in the red. Profit-booking by wary investors ahead of the expiry of January equity derivative contracts on Thursday was also one of the factors responsible for the down-trend.

The 50-issue NSE Nifty tumbled by 130.90 points, or 2.09 per cent, to settle at one-month low of 6,135.85. "Markets in India fell sharply largely due to the weakness in global markets and ahead of RBI meeting tomorrow. Concerns over the contagion from emerging markets like China and Argentina kept sentiments subdued," said Dipen Shah, Head- Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities. Over 100 stocks on the BSE hit their 52-week lows as second-line stocks too were at the receiving end.