NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 16 & REVIEW

EXIT POLLS OUTCOME TO INFLUENCE

Nifty                               7864  -20

Nifty opened better due to lower Inflation numbers and better than expected Reliance results, despite weak global cues, but sold off  in the opening session and traded in a zigzag manner to closed in negative  zone for the day. Nifty continues to hold above 7800 mark but  below 50 DMA. Further weakness would set in only when it closes below 7800 which could happen in case Maharashtra results disappoint.  Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 7905,, 7945 and find support at 7825, 7785 for Thursday. While Global cues  and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, opening would be influenced by the outcome of  exit poll results and could generally trade better as long as it holds above 7800 mark. 

SENSEX DOWN BY 35 POINTS

The benchmark Sensex today washed out initial gains and ended nearly 35 points down at 26,349.33 on selling in realty, IT, consumer durable shares amid investors adopting caution ahead of key state elections. Fall in retail inflation and wholesale price rise, which hit a five-year low in September, as well as better than expected earnings from RIL initially boosted markets but losses in HDFC, Tata Motors, ITC, HDFC Bank, ONGC and TCS dragged the Sensex into the red. Shares of realty giant DLF today fell sharply by over 28 per cent, wiping out Rs 7,439 crore from its market valuation, after Sebi imposed a three-year ban on the company and six top executives from securities markets. The BSE Sensex resumed higher at 26,537.42 and moved up further to 26,550.79 on initial buying mainly in healthcare, consumer durables, banking and refinery counters. However, it declined afterwards to 26,212.01 before ending at 26,349.33, showing a loss of 34.74 points or 0.13 per cent. The CNX 50-share Nifty also moved down by 20.25 points, or 0.26 per cent, to end at 7,864.00. "Maharashtra and Haryana will go to the polls for their respective state legislative assemblies on Wednesday (15 October)...the best case in these state elections is for the BJP to get an outright majority, which will improve centre-state co-ordination and consolidate the BJP's position in the Rajya Sabha," said a Nomura report. Retail inflation dropped to 6.46 per cent in September on falling prices of fruits and vegetables, the lowest since India started computing Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January 2012. The September wholesale price inflation also fell to five year low of 2.38 per cent. The provisional data released by the stock exchanges, showed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 671.06 crore yesterday. Asian shares ended mixed despite US stocks posting their third straight decline as investors awaited earnings. Key indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore declined by 0.24 per cent to 2.38 per cent while South Korea and Taiwan moved up by 0.11 per cent to 0.65 per cent. Both the stock exchanges, BSE and NSE will remain closed tomorrow on the account of voting for assembly polls in Maharashtra.