Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Jyeshta in Scoripio toDhanishta in Capricorn .
Sun transits in  Anuradha     in Scorpio.
Mercury   transits  in  Visakha and Anuradha constellations in Libra and Scorpio  .
Venus transits in   Jyeshta in Scorpio.
Mars  transits in   Uttarashadha  constellation in Sagittarius and Capricorn .  
Saturn transits in  Scorpio  in Visakha constellation and Cancer Navamsa.
Jupiter transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Pisces  navamsa ..

By the end of the week astro month would be complete and Nifty has been trading above the higher end of the reference range and can be expected to meet the Second target.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (24.11.2014 to 28.11.2014) …  

NIFTY :: 8477 (+87) (Scrip Specific Movements)

Nifty rallied for the Fifth week in a row. However the net rise during Three weeks has been relatively small. Current week rise came on the last day of the week followed by global cues. Bank stocks were the main gainers because of forthcoming  credit policy and the mega merger of Kotak and ING Vysya.  Further, Government could push certain reform bills in the forthcoming winter session of Parliament. Further, Sentiment is upbeat because renewed FII interest, reforms by the Government and proactive nature of the present Government and global cues. However, short term uptrend is already Five weeks old and a small correction (week on week) is overdue and can  be expected sooner than later. In view of the above, scrip specific approach is to be followed in general and in particular during the current week in view of derivative expiry. Despite the Nifty’s gain for the last Five weeks, movement during the last Three weeks is quite narrow and could be expected to witness a wider range during the next week.
All eyes are on RBI as market is expecting a rate cut and if the market is disappointed on this count, a sizeable correction can be expected. Present positive  Macro factors would have their positive effect on corporate earnings with a lag effect and the market is ahead of fundamentals. Falling crude and commodity prices coupled with lower interest cost (rate cut to be announced) would all help improve corporate earnings next year and market appears to have largely factored them in their prices. Despite these positive factors, market appears to be  generally fully priced and stock picking is the only way to perform in the market. Next Big event is Budget and big bang reforms can be expected in the budget.
Nifty is once again above all short term moving averages and  is infact at a new HIGH. However, in view of the overbought position, traders need to be vigilant and high degree of caution with proper risk management is necessary.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8275, 8100, 7920 and 7320 respectively and would
act as supports / resistances.
Based on the present Government’s agenda, Infra  and Power sectors could come out of their problems
soon . Stocks of promoters with proven record may be preferred in these sectors. Further Realty sector index appears to have bottomed out and appears due for an uptrend , hence stocks with competent  management may be considered.
Investors need to accumulate quality stocks while traders need to be ever vigilant.
Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 21.50, which is about 20% above the long term PE multiple.  Expected target for the year was 8500 (as being reported in this column for the last Four months ) and is being reached ahead of time. Next big events are Government’s reform process (GST Bill) and Budget.

Strong long term support would be around 7325 level and Medium term support is 7925. Short term support is at 8350 and Nifty would become weak only
on a close below 8350..

Technical Levels ::
For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face
resistance at 8570,  8660, 8755 and find support at 8385, 8295, 8205.
Minor resistances may be found at 8550, 8600, 8635, 8690  and minor supports at 8405, 8355, 8320, and 8265.

For short term Nifty is bullish and would become bearish only if it closes below 8350 . Further Nifyt has been trading in a narrow range for the last Three weeks with bullish bias and is presently at the upper end of the range and a firm close above 8535 would reinforce further bullishness for the next week.
Breakout level for the week is 8535 and break down level for the week is 8310.

Advice for Traders ::
Nifty’s uptrend continued for the Fifth week while the movements were very narrow during last Three weeks. Macro fundamentals are improving with falling crude , metal prices and falling inflation. Market is looking to RBI policy for further directional movement. For the current week, bullish break out level is 8535 and a firm close above that level would mean further rise during  the week. Further, in view of derivative expiry , scrip specific movement is most likely.


Popular posts from this blog