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Pullback in the Offing …!

Planetary Position...

During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Aslesha in Cancer to Pubba in Leo.
Sun transits in Uttarabhadra and Revathi    in Pisces.
Mercury   transits  in       Uttarabhadra  in  Pisces.
Venus transits in  Bharani   in Aries.
Mars transits in   Aswini in Aries.
Saturn transits in   Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign and in Libra Navamsa and remains in  retrograde motion from 14th March to 2nd August, 2015.
Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9th   to 8th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Sagittarius  Navamsa  .
Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.
Nifty trading below the monthly astro reference range  achieved the first target of sub 8300. It is possible for a rebound particularly after Jupiter turns Direct from 8th April as Bank stocks could show signs of stability.

NIFTY :: 8341 (-230) (Oversold …  Technical Bounce  …)

Nifty lost about 3% last week due to global cues and derivative expiry woes. Most of the fall was experiencenced on Thursday, derivative expiry day. However, Friday’s trading pattern suggests that the short term bottom could be in place as it had formed a “Hammer” pattern. Market needs to trade above the Friday;s high to confirm this pattern. Further, current week being a truncated week with Two trading holidays, it could lead to a low volume week with lesser participation. Market would be keenly watching RBI policy and then Q4 results. Most stocks had fallen tp come to reasonable valuations making a case for Medium / long term investment. However, Nifty is trading well below 100DMA and needs to trade above the same to lend semblance of stability to the market. Muted performance is expected in Q4 and if the results show positiveness, market could rebound faster.
Coal allocation would spur economic growth in fields such as Mining and power and would contribute to the GDP growth. Reform measures taken by the Government would go a long way in  improving the macro fundamentals. GST from next year would simplify tax regime and ensure ease of doing business. While Medium / long term outlook appears bright, Nifty needs to trade above 8550 to remain positive for the year.
20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8695, 8725, 8535 and 8170 respectively and would
act as supports / resistances. Nifty is trading  all the average , particularly below 100 DMA, which is a matter of concern.
Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the
long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of more than  22 which is more than 15% above the long term PE multiple.  Nifty EPS fell after Q3 results and the EPS fell from 391 to 373  due to change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE had fallen by about 2 points last month due to huge fall in the last Three weeks. Last major support for Nifty is 200 DMA which is aroung 8175 and in case of further fall, market can be expected to take support around 8200.
Strong long term support would be around 8175
level and Nifty is below the Medium term support level of 8525.

Technical Levels ::
For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to be Bullish above 8600 with resistance at 8690, 8790, 8835, 8925 and is expected to Bearish below 8545 with Supports at 8450, 8365 8305, 8225.

Nifty could not hold at higher levels / pull back levels and fell sharply on Thurs /  Friday and  being last week of Derivative expiry  is close to strong support level of about 8500 and can be expected to take support  around 8450 / 8500.
Breakout level for the week is 8715,  and break down level for the week is 8180. 

Advice for Traders ::
Nifty came below the strong support level of 100 DMA with a gap down on Thursday and fell further and appears to have made a short term bottom for a reasonable pullback. However, While the long term trend is bullish, Medium term would once again turn bullish only if Nifty is able sustain above 8500. If Nifty / scrips sustain above Friday’s high level, Friday’s low level could offer strong support for short term for a reasonable pullback.

Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes aboveWeekly open and vice versa


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