OUTLOOK FOR WEEK AHEAD

Pullback on Cards… !!

Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Makha in Leo  to Hastha  in Virgo .  Sun transits in Anuradha  constellation  in Scorpio. Mercury, transits in Visakha  constellation in Libra.   Mars  transits in   Uttara  constellation in Leo and Virgo. Saturn continues in Visakha  constellation in   Aries navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Retrograde motion (till 6^th March 2014)  in Gemini   in Taurus Navamsa .  Venus transits in  Poorvashadha  constellation in  Sagittarius sign. Positive feature of the week is Sun Trine Uranus  which can lift up the sentiment suddenly leading to Pullback.  26^th November is a sensitive and turning day during the week. 

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 25.11.2013 to 29.11.2013 (Relief Rally)…  

 NIFTY :: 5995 (-61)  

Nifty continued its downtrend for the Third  Week and weekly loss was possible only because of huge fall in Second half of the week due to global cues. As expected in last week’s column previous low was revisited and a slightly lower low was formed during the week. Technically, a minor relief rally is possible by end of the week which if happens can be gauged whether it would convert into a major one or not. As F&O expiry is also due on Thursday, scrip specific action is to be expected and bearirsh scrips could drift down further. However, in view of the fall for Three weeks, a rebound too is possible. Hence caution is advised at lower levels not to entertain fresh shorts without proper risk management.  Ongoing correction can be considered as a healthy correction for the smart rise of last month. While Short term trend is Down, Medium / Long term trend continues to be Up . and any decent correction is to  be utilized for Medium term long positions. However, global cues such as Fed tapering, FII inflows are the major trigger fro our market movement.  Political developments are to be closely watched for further trigger. Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later. All eyes are on forth coming State Elections which could be viewed as a  prelude for the forthcoming Big fight. Stock market discounts future in advance and is ahead of economy and fundamentals atleast by Six months. and medium term bullish sign in markets presupposes improving fundamentals as is evidenced by market reports that earnings are improving.  Nifty has been making higher bottoms and can be expected to breakout and make higher tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for Medium / long term. Traders should be ever vigilant to track short term movements and presently, a close above 6100 only would reverse the short term bearish sentiment. Nifty is  above 200  DMA  and 50 DMA and the  50DMa also has crossed  200DMA and makes a clear case of “Buy on Decline” with 200 DMA as stop loss. .

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6075,  6150, 6230 and find support at 5915, 5840, 5765.

Nifty , presently in short term bearishness, would reverse only on a close above 6100.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty , presently, in short term bearishness, can be expected to take support at lower levels and might rebound during the week, particularly second half of the week. Further, in view of F&O expiry, scrip specific action can be expected and Bearish scrips might drift down further. Technically, short term bearishness would end on a close above 6100.

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, 5815,:5891,  5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361 during the week.

Inputs provided by

Dr.Bhuvanagiri Amaranatha Sastry

Astro Technical Analyst

Saketha Consultants, Hyderabad

MARKET MAY BE VOLATILE

Stock markets may remain volatile this week as investors churn portfolios ahead of the monthly derivatives contract expiry on Thursday and announcement of second quarter economic growth data on Friday, experts said. In the absence of any major trigger, domestic markets are also expected to take cues from international developments such as hints on the timing of US stimulus tapering, they said, adding that foreign fund flows would also be closely watched. "Global cues, political and economic news within the country shall be deciding market trend in near-term. This week 5,970 shall be crucial deciding level for Nifty in near-term and the index is likely to witness further selling below this level," said Nidhi Saraswat, senior research analyst, Bonanza Portfolio Ltd. The overall GDP growth in India is expected to have risen by around 4.5 per cent during the second quarter of this financial year. This is marginally higher higher than the 4.4 per cent economic growth registered in April-June quarter. Renewed uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve tapering its stimulus programme and the absence of buying by foreign institutional investors had weighed on the market last week. The 30-share Sensex closed at 20,217.39 on Friday while Nifty ended at 5,995.45. "International markets have been flat in the last one week after moving up on Yellen's statement of delay in tapering. Indian markets had also moved up sharply a week ago hence, they have given a mild correction," said Rajesh Iyer, Head, Investments and Family Office, Kotak Wealth Management. He further added that equity markets will react to international news flow and results of upcoming state polls. "Earnings downgrade cycles seems to be bottoming out and sentiment is turning positive but macros are still supporting. Except for Current Account Deficit, all other macro parameters are still challenging and would take time to recover," Iyer said. Elections will be held in Madhya Pradesh on Monday. Registering its third weekly loss, the Sensex, fell 0.9 per cent over the last week. Analysts have also raised concerns over low retail participation and hoped they return soon. "Retail participation will return after 2014 elections if a decisive government is elected at the Centre. People are tired of weak execution of policies, and once that is addressed by a decisive government, stock market will witness return of domestic investors," said Raamdeo Agrawal, Joint MD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.