ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR THE MARKET

VOLATILE MOVEMENTS IN SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK

Inputs by

Dr.Bhuvanagiri Amaranatha Sastry

Astro Technical Analyst

Saketha Consultants, Hyderabad

sastry.saaketa@gmail.com

09848014561

Planetary Position 

During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Uttara in Leo to Visakha in Libra Sun transits in Dhanishta and Sathabhisham in Aquarius .  Mercury transits in Retrograde motion till 28^th February and presently  in Dhanishta in     Aquarius sign and Capricorn . Mars  transits in   Chitta constellation in Libra in Vargottamamsa.    Saturn continues in Visakha  constellation in  Gemini navamsa.  Jupiter transits in Retrograde motion (till 6^th March 2014)  in Gemini and presently   in  Pisces Navamsa .  Venus transits in Sagittarius in Poorvashadha and Uttarashadha constellations.Mars and Saturn would get into Retrograde motion from 1^st   week of  March. In view of these retrograde motions, market might not be able to have proper trend. New solar month which commenced on 13^th February in Scorpio Lagna ,  does not augur well for market as most  planets are inimically posited. Further, present Mercury retrograde position also presages dual movement without proper trend and a trend change is possible after midway transit after 17^th February. Further, Jupiter would be in square aspect to Uranus and oppose Pluto  with T square and Moon’s position in Virgo on 18^th and 19^th would further activate the slower planets,  indicating surprising reversals and technical support and resistance levels would be often broken and highly volatile movements could be witnessed. Further Moon’s conjunction with malefic planets (Mars, Rahu and Saturn) in Second half of the week could lead to fear complex among market participants  and consequent volatile movements.

Nifty Outlook for the Week :: 17.02.2014 to 21.02.2014\

Range Bound with Bullish Bias 

NIFTY :: 6048 (-15)  

Nifty posted Third weekly loss, though the loss in the last Two weeks was insignificant. Further, Nifty has been closing in a narrow range of 85 points (between 6000 and 6085) for the last 12 trading sessions. Such contraction normally leads to range expansion. Hence, expect wide and volatile movements later in this month.  Nifty had once again taken support at 5980 last week, ie., around 200 DMA. Presently Nifty is moving in a broad range of 5950 to 6150 having broken the previous level of 6350 – 6150. However, short term trend for Nifty has been quite slippery with frequent bouts of bullishness and bearishness in a relatively small range . In view of the above, it would be prudent for traders too to concentrate on scrips as they appear to exhibit better trending patterns. Similar slippery trend could be expected in view of the political developments ahead of Elections and policy paralysis. 

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact. Bank Index which is a major component of Nifty is distinctly weak (particularly PSU Banks) and unless Bank Nifty  completes the down cycle and reverses the trend, Nifty can not become decisively bullish.  Hence Focus on Bank stocks for reversal to track Nifty. IT and Pharma indices are generally strong and Energy major Reliance needs to take support at lower level and go up to support Nifty. Recent political developments too was a dampener for Reliance Further, broader index does not speak of the total market movements as there were scrip specific movements and better to focus on scrip specific movement. Sectoral and Scrip rotation has become the order of the day. Big event of 2014 is Loksabha Elections and the outcome would dictate the future trend. However, if Government’s policies provide a thrust to growth, there will be turnaround which would be reflected in stock market.  Recent quarterly earning have increased the Nifty EPS by more than 10 points and the Nifty EPS is presently 351 and the PE is just above 17, which is below the long term average PE of 18. Hence, any further fall on account of political or other developments can be utilized by long term traders to pick up quality stocks.  

As long as Nifty holds above 5950, long and Medium trend can be considered Bullish. However, Bank Nifty is distinctly weak. Medium and Long term trend is Bullish and Short term trend has been oscillating and the immediate range   is 5950 and 6150 and broader range is 5950 to 6350.

Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later (after Elections).  . Nifty is  above 200  DMA   and   50DMa is above  200DMA and makes a clear case of “Buy on Decline” with 200 DMA as stop loss.  .

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6125,  6205, 6285 and find support at 5970, 5895, 5815.

Nifty spot has strong  Resistance at 6140 and would get out of beargrip only if it closes above 6140 level. Further, there is strong support around 5950 and can be expected to take support around the same.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty appears to have taken support around 200 DMA and hence strong support level is 5950 and resistance is 6150 above which it would be 6350 / 6400. As Nifty has been getting good support around 200 DMA and further it is completing time wise correction also and a Bullish move can be expected subject to global cues and funds flow.

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are
, :  5815, 5891, 5968, 6046, 6124  , 6202 ,6281, , during the week.