ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

BULLISH BIAS...

Inputs by

Dr.Bhuvanagiri Amaranatha Sastry

Astro Technical Analyst

Saketha Consultants, Hyderabad

sastry.saaketa@gmail.com

09848014561

General outlook for the week (24.02.2014 to 28.02.2014)

Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be
transiting  from Moola in Sagittarius  to Dhanishta  in Aquarius.  Sun transits in Sathabhisham in Aquarius .  Mercury transits in Retrograde motion till 28^th February and presently  in Dhanishta in    Capricorn . Mars  transits in   Chitta constellation in Libra.    Saturn continues in Visakha  constellation in  Gemini navamsa in slow motion ahead of getting retrograde.  Jupiter transits in Retrograde motion (till 6^th March 2014)  in Gemini and presently   in  Aquarius Navamsa .  Venus transits in Sagittarius and Capricorn in d Uttarashadha constellation.  Mars and Saturn would get into Retrograde motion from 1^st   week of  March. In view of these retrograde motions, market might not be able to have proper trend. As Mercury is in retrograde motion, it presages dual movement and unauthentic statistics and unreliable decisions and information. Further, Jupiter would be in square aspect to Uranus and oppose Pluto  with T square .  Moon’s position in Sagittarius on 24 and 25^th  would further activate the slower planets,  indicating surprising reversals and technical support and resistance levels would be often broken and highly volatile movements could be witnessed.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 24.02.2014 to 28.02.2014 (Scrip Specific Movements )…  

 NIFTY :: 6155 (+107)  

After Three weeks of losses, Nifty reversed the trend and gained more than 1.50%. Nifty has  come out of the narrow closing range of 85 points and is nearer to 6150. If Nifty decisively closes above 6150, it would come out of the band of 5950 and 6150 and would get into the next range of 6150 – 6350. However, Nifty has been trading in a range of 5950 – 6400 and could remain in the same range for some more time  unless strong global or domestic factors are triggered. Valuations are supporting at lower levels and macro headwinds are offering resistance at higher levels. In this scenario, decisive election results and a strong Government at centre would provide direction to the market. Despite narrow range in Nifty / Sensex, most scrips exhibit reasonable short term trends and market participants could focus on scrips for short term investment / trading opportunities. Being last week of F&O expiry, scrip specific movements are most likely.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact. Bank Index which is a major component of Nifty is distinctly weak (particularly PSU Banks) and unless Bank Nifty  completes the down cycle and reverses the trend, Nifty can not become decisively bullish.  Hence Focus on Bank stocks for reversal to track Nifty. IT and Pharma indices are generally strong and Energy major Reliance needs to take support at lower level and go up to support Nifty. Recent political developments too was a dampener for Reliance Further, broader index does not speak of the total market movements as there were scrip specific movements and better to focus on scrip specific movement. Sectoral and Scrip rotation has become the order of the day. Big event of 2014 is Loksabha Elections and the outcome would dictate the future trend.  Recent quarterly earnings have increased the Nifty EPS by more than 10 points and the Nifty EPS is presently 351 and the PE is just above 17, which is below the long term average PE of 18. Hence, any further fall on account of political or other developments can be utilized by long term traders to pick up quality stocks. 

 

As long as Nifty holds above 5950, long and Medium trend can be considered Bullish. However, Bank Nifty is distinctly weak. Medium and Long term trend is Bullish and Short term trend has been oscillating and the immediate range   is 5950 to 6350.

Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later (after Elections). 

For Short term , the stop loss is 6075, and for Medium term, stop loss is 5950.   .

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6235,  6315, 6395 and find support at 6075, 6000, 5920.

Nifty is in short term uptrend with stop loss at 6075 and further upside is possible as long as it holds above 6075.

Advice for Traders :: Nifty could come out of the narrow range during the week and is on the cusp of resistance level of 6150, which if crossed decisively, would indicate further bullishness. Being last week of F&O expiry, scrip specific movements are most likely.

WD Gann’s
natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance are 

5891, 5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281,6361.

 

Further , Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa