American
brokerage Goldman Sachs today upgraded the country to "overweight" on
reducing external vulnerabilities and said it expects the Nifty to touch 7,600
points this year. The upgrade comes after the domestic markets scaled their
lifetime highs last week. "We upgrade India to overweight...The cyclical
macro adjustments in the country have reduced the external vulnerabilities. We
now expect domestic fundamentals to improve as growth recovers in Q2," it
said in a note dated March 14. Specifically, it pointed out that the cyclical
macro adjustments in the country have resulted in a reduction in external
vulnerability, eased pressure on the current account, increased forex reserves
and stabilised the rupee. It also advised its clients to watch out for stocks
which gain from the elections, which it termed as an "important domestic
catalyst". "Upcoming
parliamentary elections in April could have an important impact on reform
progress...Our analysis of past election moves, valuation and flows suggests
the country may have more room for a pre-election rally," the Wall Street
giant said. It said ONGC, Coal India,
ICICI Bank and L&T to be among the stocks to benefit from the elections.
The Nifty index, will climb up to 7,600 points within a year. On the risks
front, it said an indecisive verdict can trigger outflows. It said the
corporate earnings downgrade cycle has bottomed out for the country and added
that the GDP growth will pick up from the second quarter onwards. On its
sectoral preferences, the note said the brokerage continues to be overweight on
information technology and energy sectors, it also added auto to the category.
It put banks, investment cyclicals and utilities in the market-weight category
and while healthcare, staples, and telcos and real estate were in the
underweight category.
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