WEEKLY ASTOR TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

CRUCIAL WEEK WITH BEARISH BIAS

Inputs by

Dr.Bhuvanagiri Amaranatha Sastry

Astro Technical Analyst

Saketha Consultants, Hyderabad

sastry.saaketa@gmail.com

09848014561

General outlook for the week (18.03.2014 to 21.03.2014) ::

Planetary Position 

During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Hastha  in Gemini  to Visakha in Scorpio  Sun transits in Uttarabahdra in Pisces . .  Mercury transits  in Dhanishta and Sathabhisham constellations in  Aquarius . Mars  transits in   Chitta constellation in Libra and is in  Retrograde motion from 1^st March till 20^th May. Saturn too in  Retrograde motion from 2^nd March till 20^th July and presently in  Visakha  constellation in  Gemini navamsa. Jupiter I direct motion from  6^th March and in Aardra constellation and moves to Pisces NAvamsa during the week. Mars’ position in Chitta in Airy sign in Vargottamamsa created too much of activity and bullishness. During the current week Moon’s position in Virgo on Tuesday once again acrtivates T square  and in Libra on Wed and Thursdays  with malefic planets Mars, Rahu and Saturn could bring in too much volatility with bearish bias and fear complex among market participants. Hence caution is advised at higher levels. Further, Global cues (may be involving Ukraine) could get murkier as time passes affecting global markets and consequently Indian markets too.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: 18.03.2014 to 21.03.2014 (Caution at Higher Levels)…  

NIFTY :: 6504 (-23)  

After Three weeks of rise, Nifty traded in a narrow and sideways fashion and closed with a minor decline for the week snapping Three week winning streak. Market Undertone continues to be quite bullish but  a reasonable retracement is still due and can be expected sooner than later. Based on current market movement, sector specific / stock specific approach is more relevant for swing traders. With the recent rise, Nifty has clearly come out of the trading range and 200 DMA could become a strong base even from long term point of view.  March month has already clocked in  a gain of about 4%. Technically, though the trend is firm and bullish,  caution is advised at higher levels as  and  retracement  is to be expected. .

Nifty had traded in a narrow range last week and a weekly breakout  would happen above  6595 and break down would take place below 6400. Bank Nifty (12060) has strong support at 11850 and resistance at 12250 for next week. IT Index(9479) has resistance at 9600 and support at 9100 for next week.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact. Bank Nifty too exhibited strength last week and is above 200 DMA now  and can be expected to take support above 11000 even during correction. Energy major, Reliance too appears to have come out of bearishness. Scrip rotation has become the order of the day. Big event of 2014 is Loksabha Elections and the outcome would dictate the future trend.  As of now, market expects NDA to return to power and carry the development agenda and stock market discounts future in advance.  Even with last week’s rise, Nifty is quoting at a PE of 18.37 , which is only 2% above the long term PE. Hence, further upside (upto 7500) is possible  in case  a stable and performing Government returns to power at the centre.

Further, Nifty has been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a  powerful breakout sooner than later and breakout appears to have begun last week. Hence strong long term support would be around 6000 level.  

For Short term,  the stop loss is 6425, and for Medium term, stop loss is 6000.   For the current week, Nifty spot is expected to encounter selling pressure at higher levels and achieve a reasonable pullback , however, further rise too can be expected if last week’s move was a consolidation.

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6595,  6665, 6750 and find support at 6430, 6345, 6270.

Nifty in short term bullishness would come out of the same if it closes below 6425, .

Advice for Traders :: Nifty traded sideways and appears to be in consolidation / distribution mode. If Nifty breaks / closes below 6430, further downside is possible. On the other hand, if it closes / trades above 6600, further upside too would be possible. Expected reasonable retracement was not witnessed last week, hence retracement is due sooner than later and hence caution is advised at higher levels.

WD Gann’s support and resistance levels
6124  , 6202 ,6281,6361, 6441 , 6585, 6665.