BUY ON DECLINE...

WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

NIFTY @ 8806 (+145)

PLANETERY POSITION

During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Poorvashadha  in Sagittarius  to Poorvabhadra in Aquarius.  

Sun transits in  Dhanishta and Sathabhisham in Aquarius.

Mercury   transits  in      Uttarashadha and Sravana in Capricorn in direct motion. Market witnessed dual movement when it was in retro motion .

Venus transits in    Poorvabhadra  and Uttarabhadra in Pisces.

Mars transits in  Uttarabhadra in Pisces.

Saturn transits in   Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign and in Virgo Navamsa.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Capricorn Navamsa  .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

As mentioned in last week report, market bottomed out on Tuesday and is in uptrend for a Pre budget rally.

PREBUDGET RALLY 

Nifty has been behaving unusually in the new year with either continuous uptrend without any retracement or continuous downtrend without any pullback.  Nifty fell continuously for 7 trading sessions from 8952 to 8526 and had gone up for Four  days to close above 8800 mark. Markets ignore the event after it is out and same thing happened with Delhi results too. With another Eight trading sessions to go for Budget, whether the present bullish momentum would sustain or not is to be seen. Before the Budget, there would be Railway and Economic Survey which too would impact market movement.

Technically, Nifty can run up till Budget for a new high due to the optimism. Altenatively, it may not make a new high before budget but retrace and could go up / down steeply after the Budget on the strength of the proposals. In either case, long term trend is bullish and investors can accumulate quality stocks on dips while traders need to be highly careful. It, Pharma and Private sector Banks are generally bullish while Metals, Public sector banks are clearly bearish. Infra and Realty stocks are generally bearish.

Budget proposals could facilitate positive environment for certain sectors with encouraging proposals. Further it is to be seen whether Delhi results would slow down reforms or not?

Further monetary policy of RBI  too would depend on Budget proposals etc.,  Hence Budget proposals are the key for further market movement during the year.

However, there would be a lag between effort and the results and once corporate results improve confidence would further grow.

As First full fledged budget of the new Government is less than Three weeks away,  optimism can be expected before Budget . Any further correction relative to recent rise can be considered as an opportunity to Buy.  End of correction could coincide with Delhi election results.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8730, 8460, 8320 and 7925 respectively and would

act as supports / resistances. Nifty is above all averages .

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the

long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 23.31 which is around   25% above the long term PE multiple.  Nifty EPS fell after Q3 results and the EPS fell from 391 to 378  due to change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE, though not in bubble zone, is indicating caution and earnings need to improve substantially over the next Two quarters  failing which a reversion to mean with a serious correction can not be ruled out.

Strong long term support would be around 7925 and Medium term support is 8350. 

Technical Levels ::

For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to be Bullish above 8830 with

resistance at 8915, 9000, 9050 and 9130 and is expected to Bearish below 8780 with Supports at 8695, 8615, 8560, 8480.

Short term trend for Nifty is presently bullish and would continue to remain bullish as long as it holds above 8650.

Breakout level for the week is 8910,  and break down level for the week is 8380. 

Advice for Traders ::

Market went up smartly from lower levels despite BJP’s debacle in Delhi elections as Market usually reacts more before the news and less after the event. Pre Budget rally appears to have begun and the short term trend is in sync with long term trend. A clear case of “Buy on Decline” with 8650 as stop loss can be considered and stop loss can be trailed progressively.

Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa

EQUITY SCHEMES STOLE THE SHOW

The contribution of equity oriented schemes in mutual funds asset base has increased to 30 per cent over the last nine months of the current fiscal on the back of a sharp rally in stock markets. "The share of equity-oriented schemes in mutual fund assets has been growing since March 2014, increasing from 22 per cent to 30 per cent in December 2014," shows latest data from Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). However, the proportionate share of debt-oriented schemes has fallen from 52 per cent to 45 per cent during the same period. Together, all 45 mutual fund houses manage assets worth over Rs 11 lakh crore. The increased share in equity schemes is in line with the BSE's benchmark Sensex growing by 23 per cent during the April-December period of the current fiscal. Industry experts said continuous inflows into the equity schemes, driven by the positive performance of stock markets, helped mutual fund managers increase their share from equity oriented schemes. They said the drop in debt fund assets was largely due to the change in taxation structure of such funds. Mutual Funds (MFs) collect funds from various investors for investing in securities such as stocks, bonds, money market instruments and similar assets. Individual investors increased their investment in mutual funds from Rs 3.99 lakh crore in March last year to Rs 5.25 lakh crore in December 2014. Institutional assets grew from Rs 5.04 lakh crore to Rs 6.09 lakh crore. Assets managed by the mutual fund industry have grown from Rs 9.02 lakh crore in March last year to Rs 11.34 lakh crore in December 2014.

BUY ON DECLINE

ASTRO GUIDE FOR 13 & REVIEW

Astro Info :: Moon transits in  Anuradha  in  Scorpio .   

Tithi : Bahula Navami ; Weekday:: Friday. 

Individuals born in Sagittarius and Aries    signs and in Bharani, Pubba and Poorvashadha     constellations    may remain cautious in their transactions

Senstive time:: 11.55; 12.55pm;

Nifty                               8712   +85
Market traded in a zigzag fashion in the forenoon and recovered smartly in the Second half due to global cues (after Ukraine Ceasefire) and ended with a gain of about 1% and above 8700 mark. Thursday’s move signals the end of short term bearishness and “Pre budget Rally” seems to have begun and a case of Buy on Decline with 8550 as Stop Loss. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8755, 8790 and find support at 8675, 8635 for  Friday.   While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to trade in a zigzag manner and any intraday fall is an opportunity to Buy.
Trading strategy :: 

Nifty becomes clearly bullish and any fall is an opportunity to Buy. Buy on Decline with yesterday’s low or 8630 as stop loss.

Breakout / Break Down Levels::

Breakoutlevel  is 8766 and Breakdown level 8565 for Nifty spot for Friday .,  It is unlikely that both levels would be breached (under normal circumstances)., If Breakout level is breached., It is a Buy on Decline with Low as Stop loss and if Breakdown level is breached, It is a sell on rise with high as stop loss. Alternatively, if Nifty is unable to cross the Breakout level, short positions, can be considered with Breakout as stop loss and unable to breach the breakdown level, long positions can be considered with Breakdown level as stop loss.

Disclaimer ::  Above analysis  is based on planetary movements and is intended for guidance / educative purpose and traders are advised to be highly cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky and not trade only based on the analysis given above.

Live Programme on 6TV by Dr B Amaranatha Sastry can be viewed between 8.30am to 9.00am during weekdays  or can be watched on Internet  http://in.yupptv.com/949/6tv (between 8.30am to 9.00am)

MARKET AGAIN BULLISH

Rising for the third straight session, the benchmark Sensex today gained 271 points to end at 28,805.10 and the Nifty index reclaimed 8,700-mark by jumping 84 points on a flurry of late buying in anticipation of positive retail inflation and IIP data. A good showing by Europe also influenced trading, brokers said, adding that global investors lapped up a dose of monetary stimulus from Sweden's central bank and reports that Russia and Ukraine have agreed a ceasefire will take place. In domestic stocks, all the sectoral indices, barring FMCG sector, closed in the positive terrain with capital goods, power and IT sectors leading the rally. The Sensex resumed higher at 28,650.25 and hovered in a wide range of 28,838.52 and 28,406.25 before ending at 28,805.10, showing a gain of 271.13 points of 0.95 per cent. It has now gained by 577.71 points or 2.05 per cent in 3 days. Similraly, the CNX 50-share Nifty rose by 84.15 points, or 0.98 per cent, to end at 8,711.55. In key earnings, Hindalco Industries reported 7.5 per cent rise in net profit for the third quarter. Its shares ended higher by 2 per cent. "After trading range bound for most part of the session, sudden surge in last hour helped index to end with decent gains on Thursday. It seems participants bought stocks in anticipation of strong macro-economic data of IIP and CPI inflation, which is scheduled post market," said Religare Securities, President-retail distribution, Jayant Manglik. Sentiments were buoyed by the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the defeat in Delhi polls will not slow down the pace of economic reforms and optimism over the forthcoming Budget.

GOLD DEMAND DIPS

Gold demand in India declined 14 per cent to 842.7 tonnes in 2014 as compared to the previous year, mainly due to government policies putting restrictions on imports, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The overall demand stood at 974.8 tonnes in 2013, says WGC 'Gold Demand Trend 2014' report. In value terms, the precious metal's demand dipped by 19 per cent to Rs 208,979.2 crore in 2014 as compared to Rs 257,211.4 crore in 2013, it said. The total jewellery demand in India for 2014 was up by eight per cent at 662.1 tonnes as compared to 612.7 tonnes in 2013. In value terms, jewellery demand in 2014 was Rs 208,979.2 crore, a fall of 19 per cent from Rs 257,211.4 crore in 2013. Total imports stood at 769 tonnes, including grey market, as compared to 825 tonnes in 2013. "The grey market gold supply was around 175 tonnes. If there are relaxation in policy, duty cuts and transparent pricing this year, the grey market supply of gold will be significantly reduced," World Gold Council Managing Director, India, Somasundaram PR told PTI here. Total investment demand for 2014 was down by 50 per cent at 180.6 tonnes as compared to 362.1 tonnes in 2013. In value terms, gold investment demand saw a fall of 53 per cent at Rs 44,847.1 crore from Rs 95,460.8 crore in 2013, the report said. "The investment demand declined mainly due to government policies that led to jewellers not selling bars and coins," Somasundaram said. Total gold recycled in India also declined by 23.5 per cent in 2014 to 77.1 tonnes as compared to 100.8 tonnes in 2013. Softer prices, which remained stable in 2014, provided less incentive to sell the precious metal, Somasundaram said. "India's overall gold demand was slightly lower in 2014, which is not surprising given the crippling restrictions on imports in place for most of the year. This had the biggest impact on investment demand. "In contrast, festival buying, bridal demand and a general upswing in economic sentiment led to eight per cent growth in demand for jewellery - a record high from 2013. "The year also saw high levels of smuggling as a direct result of supply curbs on the Indian gold market," Somasundaram said.

CRUCIAL DAY

ASTRO GUIDE FOR 12 & REVIEW

Astro Info :: Moon transits in  Visakha  in Libra and Scorpio .   

Tithi : Bahula Ashtami ; Weekday:: Thursday. 

Individuals born in Scorpio and Pisces    signs and in Aswini Makha and Moola    constellations    may remain cautious in their transactions.

Senstive time:: 9.20am; 11.00am; 12.25pm.,;

Nifty                               8627   +62

Market Outlook for  Thursday, 12th February, 2015  :: Crucial Day….!!!

Market traded in the positive zone through out the day and gained for the Second day in succession and closed above 8600. Nifty would get out of short term bearishness if it closes above 8660. Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8670, 8705 and find support at 8590, 8555 for  Thursday.   While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to trade in a zigzag manner in the fore noon session.

Thursday’s closing is important as short term trend could reverse on a close above 8660.
Trading strategy :: 

Today’s session is crucial as whether it would close above 8660 and reverse short term trend or would fall again from high levels to retest the low. Caution at higher levels is advised. Below mentioned Breakout and Break down levels too might be watched closely  as one of the levels only could be breached signaling the trend.

Breakout / Break Down Levels::

Breakoutlevel  is 8667 and Breakdown level 8579 for Nifty spot for Thursday .,  It is unlikely that both levels would be breached (under normal circumstances)., If Breakout level is breached., It is a Buy on Decline with Low as Stop loss and if Breakdown level is breached, It is a sell on rise with high as stop loss. Alternatively, if Nifty is unable to cross the Breakout level, short positions, can be considered with Breakout as stop loss and unable to breach the breakdown level, long positions can be considered with Breakdown level as stop loss.

Disclaimer ::  Above analysis  is based on planetary movements and is intended for guidance / educative purpose and traders are advised to be highly cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky and not trade only based on the analysis given above.

Live Programme on 6TV by Dr B Amaranatha Sastry can be viewed between 8.30am to 9.00am during weekdays  or can be watched on Internet  http://in.yupptv.com/949/6tv (between 8.30am to 9.00am)

BANKING CUSTOMERS...BE ALERT

Cyber security sleuths have alerted e-banking users in the country against the infectious and destructive activity of a "worm" virus which attacks and steals personal login secrets and passwords of an individual. The virus, of the deadly Trojan variant, has been identified and named as 'Cridex' and is considered notorious as it can assume as many as six aliases to perpetrate its activities. "It has been observed that the new variants of Cridex malware are spreading widely. Cridex is an information stealing e-banking Trojan that propagates via removable drives and targets users of online banking/social media for stealing user name, passwords among others," the Computer Emergency Response Team of India (CERT-In) said in its latest advisory to e-banking users in the country. The CERT-In is the nodal agency to combat hacking, phishing and to fortify security-related defences of the Indian Internet domain. The virus spreads by simultaneously opening a backdoor for downloading a number of malicious files once it enters a user's personal Internet working stream. "Like the other major banking Trojans, the malware performs web injects into the HTML pages of financial institutions contained in the configuration file. The malware routes the users to fake banking sites for divulging user information and subsequently connects to the bank site from the victim IP address by bypassing IP reputation blocking," the agency said in its alert. Some of the identified aliases of this banking virus are 'Geodo', 'Dapato', 'W32/Kryptik.BVB', 'Worm.Win32.Cridex', 'PWS:Win32/Zbot' and 'Trojan.Gen.2' and can be noticed by these names when they appear online. The agency said, once activated, the virus targets and steals login credentials of various banks and social networking sites like Facebook, Twitter and Instagram among others. The anti-sabotage cyber agency has also recommended some counter-measures for the users to deploy in their personal computers and Internet-enabled devices from where they perform their e-operations and online banking jobs. "Enable firewall at desktop and gateway level, keep up-to-date patches and fixes on the operating system and application software as well as anti-virus and anti-spyware signatures at entry points," it said. It also suggested users to update and install the latest updates and softwares to protect computer from viruses, Trojans, guard against social engineering attacks, usage of strong passwords, limiting user privileges, exercising caution while opening attachments to emails received from known or unknown sources and avoiding downloading of pirated software.

KIRTILAL's LAUNCH MULTIFUNCTIONAL VERSATILE JEWELLERY

Wooing the new age consumers, Kirtilals, a premium fine diamond and gold jewellery brand, today launched multifunctional versatile jewellery to match any outfit or style. A ring can be turned into a bracelet, or a pendent can transform into a pair of dangling earrings or a striking bracelet, Muruganandam, Store Operations Manager, Kirtilals, said launching the collection.
The new collections, starting from Rs 15,000, emphasises the design elements and multi functionality of the jewellery that would match different outfits.
The entire range of collection will be economical since customers don't have to buy a separate matching pendant or stud with their jewellery.
"The market is now evolving, besides gold jewellery, the new age customers are open to unconventional jewellery and designs. To attract this segment of our customers, we are launching the versatile collection, where the customers can easily transform one jewellery into individual pieces of jewellery", he said.
Moreover the jewellery is light weight with minimal prong thickness, which reduces the weight of the jewellery and makes it more affordable, he said.

CLOSING SESSION SENSITIVE

ASTRO GUIDE FOR 10 & REVIEW

Astro Info :: Moon transits in Chitta and Swathi in Libra .

Tithi : Bahula Shashti ; Weekday:: Tuesday.

Individuals born in Scorpio and Pisces signs and in Pushyami, Anuradha and Uttarabhadra constellations may remain cautious in their transactions.

Nifty Range of Thursday and Friday(Combined High and Low of these Two days i.e., 22 and 23 January) may be regarded as the reference range for the next Three weeks and can be expected to be bullish above the High of this range and Bearish below the low of this range. Now the range is  8866 and 8727 and Hence further bullish above 8866 and Bearish below 8727 and neutral in between these levels.

Nifty had traded below 8727 during the last Two days and target of about 8600 opens up., Nifty has breached 8600 Hence Downside target reached.

Senstive time:: 10.15am; 12.00pm; 2.00pm;

Nifty                               8526   -135
REVIEW
Nifty opened with a down gap due to Delhi exit poll results and fell once again sharply in the closing hour to end with a loss of 135 points, recording Seventh successive Down day for markets. Stop loss for Nifty’s short positions may be maintained at 8775 (on close basis). Nifty spot is expected to encounter resistance at 8565, 8600 and find support at 8485, 8450 for  Tuesday.   While Global cues, Quarterly results   and  Funds flow  are expected to broadly guide the market movement, based on the present market position, market  is expected to trade in a zigzag manner with bearish bias and closing session could be sensitive. Further strong weekly support is seen around 8450.
Further, Delhi Election outcome would weigh heavily on the market sentiment till the declaration of results.
Trading strategy ::

Over all trend is Bearish and is getting into oversold zone.  Nifty can be expected to find strong support around 8450. Hence fresh shorts between 8450 and 8500 might not be considered.

Hence , only intraday shorts if Nifty trades below Open level in the opening session / below ATP in the afternoon session may be considered with suitable stop loss.

Breakout / Break Down Levels::

Breakoutlevel  is 8628 and Breakdown level 8494 for Nifty spot for Tuesday .,  It is unlikely that both levels would be breached., If Breakout level is breached., It is a Buy on Decline with Low as Stop loss and if Breakdown level is breached, It is a sell on rise with high as stop loss. Alternatively, if Nifty is unable to cross the Breakout level, short positions, can be considered with Breakout as stop loss and unable to breach the breakdown level, long positions can be considered with Breakdown level as stop loss.

Disclaimer :: Above analysis  is based on planetary movements and is intended for guidance / educative purpose and traders are advised to be highly cautious with proper risk management mechanism as Trading is highly risky and not trade only based on the analysis given above.

Live Programme on 6TV by Dr B Amaranatha Sastry can be viewed between 8.30am to 9.00am during weekdays  or can be watched on Internet  http://in.yupptv.com/949/6tv (between 8.30am to 9.00am)

SENSEX TANKS 490 pts

Markets today slumped for the seventh straight day, its longest losing streak in 15 months, with Sensex losing over 490 points to end at about three-week low on exit polls showing that the BJP may not be able to form government in Delhi. Besides, the rupee depreciated against the dollar to over three-week low of 62.20 (intra-day) on sustained capital outflows which dampened market sentiments. The BSE Sensex, after opening lower at 28,566.50, continued to slide on selling pressure in bluechip companies, forcing the Sensex to touch a low of 28,183.32 before settling lower by 490.52, or 1.71 per cent, to close at 28,227.39. This is its weakest closing since January 16. As many as 24 stocks closed with losses, including L&T, GAIL, Cipla, SBI, M&M, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, ICICI Bank, TCS, Axis Bank, Hero MotoCorp, RIL, BHEL, HDFC Bank, ITC Ltd, Coal India, NTPC and HDFC Ltd. However, Dr Reddy, Bajaj Auto, Sun Pharma, ONGC, Wipro and Infosys were among the Sensex gainers. The 50-share NSE Nifty dipped below the psychological 8,600-mark by tumbling 134.70 points, or 1.56 per cent, to close at 8,526.35. Foreign funds continued to remain net sellers on domestic bourses which weighed on the sentiment and added to selling, equity brokers said. Disappointing corporate earnings and caution ahead of GDP data for December quarter also cast shadow on the trading sentiments, they said. Meanwhile, FPIs sold shares worth Rs 96.45 crore on last Friday, as per the provisional data. Among others, Tata Power fell by 2.44 per cent and Reliance Power closed 5.59 per cent lower on fresh round of selling pressure on fears that the new government in Delhi may again lower power tariffs. Mixed trend at other Asian markets and a weak opening at European markets also weighed on sentiments here.

30 CRORE PEOPLE IN EXTREME POVERTY

About 30 crore people still live in extreme poverty in India even as the Millennium Development Goal (MGD) programme will expire in December, a United Nations report has said.
"Still nearly 300 million people live in extreme poverty in India and face deprivation in terms of access to basic services, including education, health, water, sanitation and electricity," the report -- India and the MGDs: Completing the Task -- said.
India, which has a population of over 125 crore, adopted the United Nation's MGD in 2000 with an aim to free millions from extreme poverty and hunger, illiteracy, poor health.
The eight-point MGD among others targets promotion of gender equality and women empowerment, reducing child mortality, improve maternal health, combating HIV/AIDS and environmental sustainability. "India has made a great progress on MGDs, but there is no room for complacency, because there are gaps relative to the goals and targets. "There are enough opportunities and there is a lot of scope to catch up, and it is critical that by the end of the year when the MGD expires, we really accelerate momentum during this year so that we start the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda," said Shamshad Akhtar, UN Under Secretary General and Executive Secretary UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (ESCAP). India has an opportunity to become a leader in sustainable development. It has achieved the poverty reduction target, but the progress is uneven, said the report. "Being home to one-sixth of the world's population, the world is not going to achieve the SDGs if India does not (achieve them)," Akhtar said. After MGD expiry, the UN will begin its SDG programme. India has halved incidence of poverty from 1990s. Still over 27 crore people in 2012 remained in extreme poverty, making the post-2015 goal of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030 challenging, but feasible, it said.
It is significant that countries across the globe have made social development a public policy through MGD, said TCA Anant, Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and Planning and Chief Statistician. "We ourselves bring our report. From our report I can say that we have achieved progress on number of indicators," he added. Seeing MGD an opportunity, he said, it allows India to sharpen its capability of data mining. "We realised we faced enormous challenges in our capabilities to measure. There are many indicators in the goal on which we still have limited information," said Anant.

FOREX RESERVES @ RECORD HIGH

India's foreign exchange reserves surged by USD 5.84 billion to touch a fresh life-time high of USD 327.88 billion in the week to January 30, the Reserve Bank today. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had declined marginally by USD 97.9 million to USD 322.037 billion. The previous record high was USD 322.13 billion recorded for the week ended January 16. The increase in reserves was on account of higher foreign currency assets (FCAs), which forms a major constituent of overall reserves. In the reporting week, FCA rose by USD 5.814 billion to USD 303.325 billion, Reserve Bank data showed. FCAs, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation and depreciation of non-US currencies such as euro, pound and yen held in reserves. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this week had said there was accretion to the country's foreign exchange reserves to the tune of USD 6.8 billion in third quarter of FY15. The country's gold reserves remained unchanged at USD 19.377 billion. Special drawing rights increased by USD 24.6 million to USD 4.072 billion, while India's reserve position with the IMF was up by USD 6.8 million to USD 1.108 billion during the week, the data showed.