Reflecting
macroeconomic challenges over the next 12 months, Moody's expects challenges
for Indian non-financial corporates to continue in 2014. "India's GDP
growth to remain weak at 5.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2015, as
elections in mid-2014 will delay reforms needed to revive the economy,"
Moody's Investors Service said in a report. Companies will also face higher
borrowing costs and tight funding conditions with monetary policy likely to remain
tight, it said. Moody's could move to a stable outlook if its GDP growth
expectations exceed 6 per cent, the rupee stabilises -- such that one-year
volatility falls below 5 per cent -- and a development and reform-focused
government is formed with a strong majority, it said. "Heightened
expectation of a scale back of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve in
2014 to keep the Indian Rupee volatile, making the operating environment more
challenging for importers and exporters," the agency said in its report.
Indian exploration and production companies are likely to continue their
acquisition spree to secure the country's energy needs, it said adding there
was substantial headroom under their current ratings for further buys. A near
doubling of gas prices from April 2014 will lift upstream revenues, with Oil
and Natural Gas Corporation seeing the largest boost. However, the fuel subsidy
burden on the upstream companies may remain high, despite an expected decline
in total fuel subsidies, it said. Moody's outlook for the sector is stable. The
outlook is negative in the refining and marketing sector, where it expects
refining margins to stay weak and for companies to suffer delays in subsidy
reimbursements due to the mid-year elections. Meanwhile, the weaker rupee has
improved competitiveness for the IT/business process outsourcing sector, where
the sector outlook is stable, it said. Moody's outlook is negative for the
steel, metals and mining sectors, where it expects the weak economy and
capacity expansions to weigh on steelmakers' margins and utilisation rates. It
also has a negative outlook for the automotive sector, as it expects demand to
remain weak while giving 'stable outlook' for the telecommunications sector,
where it expects average revenue per user and EBITDA margins to improve.
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