CRUCIAL WEEK...BEARISH BIAS...
General outlook for the week (16.12.2013 to 20.12.2013) ::
Planetary
Position ::
During the current week Moon would be transiting from Rohini in Tarurus to Pushyami in Cancer .Sun
transits in Moola
constellation in Sagittarius. Mercury
,transits in Jyeshta constellations in Scorpio. Mars transits in
Hastha constellation in Virgo. Saturn continues in Visakha
constellation in Taurus navamsa. Jupiter transits in Retrograde motion (till 6th March
2014) in Gemini and presently in Taurus Navamsa .Venus
transits in Uttarashadha constellations in Capricorn sign in
slower motion. Monthly astro range from last week Monday to Thursday was 6415 and 6230
and has breached the lower level on Friday giving initial target 6050 for the
month. There is a Grand Square / T square operating involving Mars and Outer planets towards the
month end and January 1st week and high degree of volatility with bearish bias can be expected to take
place. Hence, high degree of caution is suggested in respect of long positions.
Nifty
Outlook for Next Week :: 16.12.2013 to 20.12.2013 (Sell on Rise for
Traders.. Investors buy in instalments
)…
NIFTY
:: 6168(-92)
Market
opened
with a huge and made a life time high on Monday but could not hold on /
retain the gains as it fell on all Four days later to close with a
weekly loss
of about 1.50%. Higher Inflation numbers and lower IIP numbers do not
augur
well for the economy and consequently for the markets and RBI would be
constrained to raise the policy rates which would be unfavourable for
the
markets and the currency as well. Besides, US Fed meet too would take
place
during the week and as tapering news is making rounds, market could be
shaky. However,
stock market is all about future expectations and we have witnessed a
non performing
Government and hoping for a pro active and performing Government in
2014.
Hence, any decent correction in view of the short term bad news is an
opportunity for long term / medium term investors to buy quality stocks.
Further, Q3 results season too would be starting from Second week of
January
and scrip / sector specific movement would be in focus. While Nifty made
a new
high for statistical purpose, it would be in place in spirit only when
it
maintains above the previous high. Further, Nifty has been trading in a
range
of 4600 to 6300 for more than 4 years and is due for a powerful
breakout
sooner than later. When Nifty clears breaks this trading range and
continuously
trades above 6400, it has potential to test 8000 over a period of time.
Stock market discounts future in advance and
is ahead of economy and fundamentals atleast by Six months. and medium
term
bullish sign in markets presupposes improving fundamentals. Nifty has
been making higher bottoms and can be expected to breakout and make
higher
tops. “Buy on Decline” may be followed for Medium / long term. Traders
should
be ever vigilant to track short term movements . However, short term
movement is negative and long positions may be avioided
for the short term and traders with high
risk appetite may consider short positions with a stop loss of 6280 on
close
basis. Nifty is above 200 DMA and 50 DMA and the
50DMa also has crossed 200DMA and makes
a clear case of “Buy on Decline” with 200 DMA as stop loss. .Any decent
correction is an opportunity for medium / long term investors and it is
a clear case of “Buy on Decline” long as it holds above 200 DMA, which
is
presently placed around 5880.
For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to face resistance at
6245, 6325, 6405 and find support at 6090, 6010, 5935.
Nifty , presently in short term bearishness, would reverse only on a close above 6290.
Advice
for Traders :: Nifty is Bullish in the short term but in case Nifty makes a new
high due to euphoric and charged atmosphere, long positions may be avoided and
profit booking can be resorted to particularly in leveraged positions. Caution
is advised at higher levels. Wait for weakness to initiate short positions.
WD Gann’s natural numbers which would act as natural support and resistance
5815,5891,5968, 6046, 6124, 6202 ,6281, 6361, 6441.
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