Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Visakha  in Libra to Poorvashadha  in Sagittarius.

- Sun transits in Pubba in Leo .

- Mercury transits  in    Uttara and Hasta  constellations  in   Virgo.

- Venus transits in Makha in Leo.

- Mars  transits in  Visakha   constellation in Libra and Scorpio .  

 - Saturn transits in Visakha constellation in Libra  .  

- Jupiter transits in Pushyami in Cancer ..

 Uranus trine Jupiter will take place in the last week of September which is a Bullish sign and any correction before that time could be an opportunity to Buy.


NIFTY::(7954(+41)   Strong Resistance for Nifty at 8075

Nifty gained about 0.50% during the Third week of gain and is close to the magic figure of 8000 mark. After it crossed 7000 mark on 12th May, it did not go below 7000 and is all set to touch 8000 in the current week (within a span of 100+ days). Nifty crossed 6000(in the recent spell on 17th February and did not  go below 6000 mark and crossed 7000 on 12th May within 4 months. Looking at this phenomenon, after crossing 8000, whether it will not go below 8000??? and cross 9000mark with in another 4 months.. Only time will tell !!!

Nifty has been trading in a narrow range for the last 10 trading sessions with bullish bias and appears due for  wide range days this week. With GDP showing an uptrend, macro fundamentals  are showing signs of improvement economy can be expected to be rerated sooner than later.  

However, a mild correction / retracement can be expected for the last Three weeks’ rise before another round of uptrend.

For September month, breakout level for Nifty is 8075 and it is to be seen whether it would be crossed this week or it would take time to cross it. Hence, caution at high levels (particularly between 8050 and 8100) is receommended. Further, Nifty has been scaling new high based on certain scrips but several midcap scrips which had run up ahead of fundamentals have taken a severe beating in the recent past. Hence, stock / scrip specific approach is the need of the hour .

Macro  economic indicators have turned positive in view of the falling

crude oil prices as Diesel subsidy is nearly phased out.   If inflation too eases leading to reduction of interest rates, economic revival would kick in leading to earnings growth and higher PE too. With a proactive and committed Government at the centre, it would happen sooner than later. However, a reasonable correction could take place before another leg of upmove. On the other hand, if market remains sideways for a considerable period also, it could be taken as a correction. Stocks which have run up ahead of fundamentals are seen correcting.

Technically, Nifty is bullish in all time frames and very short term trend could come under threat if it closes below 7900.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 7785, 7700, 7400 and 6825 respectively and wouldact as supports. Nifty has taken support from about 50 DMA last Three times and could be expected to lendstrong support and a deeper correction could set in only if it closes and trades  below 50 DMA(7700) consistently.

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 20.75, which is about 14% above the  long term PE multiple.  Hence, further upside (  8500+ is possible during the year / before next Budget)  in view of the  stable and performing Government  at the centre as earnings would go up because of favourable atmosphere .  Hence, it could pullback nearer to long term average when it gets into correction.

Market is usually ahead of fundamentals and fundamentals need to catch up with the present valuations which could take some time , hence correction could be expected.

Further, Nifty had been trading in a range of 4600 to 6300 (till 2013) for more than 4 years and  a  powerful breakout had taken place  for an initial target of about 8000 / 8500.. Hence strong long term support would be around 6850 level and Medium term support is 7400.


RESISTANCE LEVELS 8045,  8135, 8225

SUPPORT LEVELS :  7865, 7775, 7690.

Nifty is in  short term bullishness..  It would get out of the short bullishness only if it closes below 7900. Nifty is expected to face resistance around 8075 during the week and if it crosses 8075, it would face resistance around 8150.

Advice for Traders ::

Nifty continued its uptrend for Third week and short term uptrend can be expected to terminate only if it closes below 7900. However, high risk traders can consider short at high levels with 8075 as strict stop loss. Further, scrip specific approach is to be followed .

Investors need to accumulate quality stocks while traders need to be ever vigilant.


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