Mercury to Turn Direct fom 12th  …. Market too ???

Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Hastha in Virgo to Anuradha in Scorpio.

Sun transits in  Dhanishta  in   Capricorn and moves to Aquarius towards weekend.

Mercury   transits  in      Uttarashadha constellation in  Capricorn and  in Retrograde motion from 21.1.15 night till 11.2.15.  There could be review of decisions taken during Mercury retro period and information / statistics could be unreliable. Mercury Retro period indicates dual movement During Mercury Retro period, Market had gone up smartly in First half of Mercury retro period and started making a U turn in Second half as it is to have dual movement and continued its reversal through out last week. Mercury would turn Direct during the week from 11th night and market too could turn Direct…!!!

Venus transits in    Poorvabhadra   in   Aquarius.

Mars transits in  Aquarius, an airy sign, and transits in  Poorvabhadra in Aquarius and would move to Pisces towards weekend.

Saturn transits in  Scorpio  in Anuradha in Virgo Navamsa.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9th   to 8th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Capricorn Navamsa  .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

Second half of Mercury retrograde turned out to be a reversal for markets. Mercury retro would end on Tuesday and Delhi Election results would be declared on 11th.  Market could bottom out around Tuesday and could prepare for a Budget rally thereafter.

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (09.02. 2015 to 13.02. 2015) …  

NIFTY :: 8661 (- 148) (  Delhi Election Results to have Bearing on Market Movement .… )
In an unusual week, Nifty fell on all the Five trading sessions and market more than 1.50%. Barring on Thursday, when Nifty rose about 100 points during the day, it was Bears who were in control during the week. Despite positive global cues, Nifty’s fall indicates nervousness ahead of crucial Delhi polls and possible negative outcome (as per some opinion polls) for the BJP.  However, once results are declared, stage would be set for the next Big event ie., Union Budget etc., In case BJP loses Delhi, market would perceive negatively as the Government can not go bold with reforms etc and may have to toe pro poor policies keeping other upcoming State elections.  While the short term correction is undertway, medium and long term trend is Bullish and Budget is expected to announce further Reforms and market can be expected to rebound from the ongoing correction.
Further monetary policy of RBI  too would depend on Budget proposals etc.,  Hence Budget proposals are the key for further market movement during the year.
Once GST becomes realty, most of the bottlenecks in interstate trade would be removed and there would be ease of doing business with proposed changes and would attract consider investment into the country and would further drive the markets.
However, there would be a lag between effort and the results and once corporate results improve confidence would further grow.
As First full fledged budget of the new Government is less than Three weeks away,  optimism can be expected before Budget . Any further correction relative to recent rise can be considered as an opportunity to Buy.  End of correction could coincide with Delhi election results.

20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA and 200 DMA are placed at about 8650, 8450, 8290 and 7875 respectively and would
act as supports / resistances. Nifty is above all averages .

Nifty continues to be above 200 DMA and 50 DMA too is above 200 DMA (Golden Cross) suggesting that the long term bullish trend is intact.   Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 22.44 which is more than  20% above the long term PE multiple. Q3 results did not contribute positively to the EPS and EPS fell from 391 to 386  due to change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE, though not in bubble zone, is indicating caution and earnings need to improve over the next Two quarters drastically failing which a reversion to mean is possible. 
Strong long term support would be around 7875
level and Medium term support is 8300. 

Technical Levels ::
For the coming week, Nifty spot is expected to be Bullish above 8675 with
resistance at 8725, 8770, 8795, 8845 and is expected to Bearish below 8645 with Supports at 8600, 8555, 8525, 8475.

Short term trend for Nifty is presently bearish which would be confirmed if it closes above 8825.

Breakout level for the week is 8890,  and break down level for the week is 8595. Further, there is strong support for Nifty spot around 8450 and could take support around that level, in case of steep fall.

Advice for Traders ::
Bears tightened their grip last week as Nifty had fallen on all the Five trading sessions. Absence of FII buying and nervousness ahead of crucial Delhi election appear to have triggered the fall. Delhi Election results would hold the key for this week. If BJP wins, market could shoot up, failing which there could be a considerable fall before it could bounce back. In any case, Fall is an opportunity as market could run up later ahead of full fledged Finance Bill presentation towards month end.

Weekly Open level is very important for the entire week.
Short positions may be avoided as long as it maintains / closes above
Weekly open and vice versa


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