WEEKLY ASTRO TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR NIFTY

SUDDEN & POSITIVE CHANGES...!!

Planetary Position ::  During the current week Moon would be transiting  from Aswini in Aries to Aardra in Gemini .   

Sun transits in  Sathabhisham in Aquarius.

Mercury   transits  in     Sravana in Capricorn.

Venus transits in     Uttarabhadra in Pisces.

Mars transits in  Uttarabhadra in Pisces.

Saturn transits in   Anuradha constellation in Scropio sign and in Libra Navamsa.

Jupiter , in retrograde motion from December 9^th   to 8^th April 2015, transits in  Cancer in Aslesha constellation in Capricorn Navamsa  .

Rahu and Ketu continue their transit in Virgo and Pisces respectively.

During the week fast moving planets and Jupiter make favourable aspects to Uranus, responsible for making sudden changes. As  many important economic events (Budget, Economic Survey, Rail Budget ) would take place, positive sentiment can be expected to prevail.

Further Range between Thursday and Friday of last week (19^th and 20^th February )could be kept  as Astro reference range for the next Three weeks and Nifty can be expected to be Bullish above the High and Bearish below the Low of the range. Hence Nifty can be expected to Bullish above 8915 and Bearish below 8790.   

Nifty Outlook for Next Week :: (23.02. 2015 to 28.02. 2015) …  

NIFTY :: 8834 (+28) (  Further Uptrend…!!!)

Nifty traded in a very narrow range in a truncated week (4 trading sessions) and closed with minor uptick for the week. However, followed by a truncated week, market would be entering an extended week (as market is open on Saturday due to Budget Presentation) with number of events set to take place. Most awaited event of year for market would be taking place on 28^th February. Budget session is very crucial for the market and the Government as it has to pass several bills including already promulgated ordinances. Coal mines e_auction could be termed as successful for the Government as Government would be expected garner additional resources. With Comfortable finances for the Government, where would be funds be deployed , whether in infrastructure or populist schemes? A big reform oriented budget is being expected and hope Government would deliver and expectations could be met.

Cautious optimism prevailed during last week and Nifty went up for Three days . Railway Budget could give a cue as to Government’s mindset towards reforms. Technically, Nifty can run up till Budget for a new high due to the optimism. Altenatively, it may not make a new high before budget but retrace and could go up / down steeply after the Budget on the strength of the proposals. In either case, long term trend is bullish and investors can accumulate quality stocks on dips while traders need to be highly careful. IT, Pharma and Private sector Banks are generally bullish while Metals, Public sector banks are clearly bearish. Infra and Realty stocks are generally bearish and could head higher depending on Budget. Further Coal mines auction could reduce the problems of power companies. Further, mining activity would pick up leading to a spurt in GDP in the coming quarters. Further, depending on the Budget, a rate cut too could be expected which would spur growth. But most of these factors appear to have been already factored in as Nifty is quoting at a PE of more than 23.50.

Budget proposals could facilitate positive environment for certain sectors with encouraging proposals. Further it is to be seen whether Delhi results would slow down reforms or not?

 Further monetary policy of RBI  too would depend on Budget proposals etc.,  Hence Budget proposals are the key for further market movement during the year.

However, there would be a lag between effort and the results and once corporate results improve confidence would further grow.

Nifty is quoting at a PE of about 23.62 which is around   25% above the long term PE multiple.  Nifty EPS fell after Q3 results and the EPS fell from 391 to 374  due to change in weightage of Nifty constituents. Nifty PE, though not in bubble zone, is indicating caution and earnings need to improve substantially over the next Two quarters  failing which a reversion to mean with a serious correction can not be ruled out.

Strong long term support would be around 7975, level and Medium term support is 8350. 

Technical Levels ::

Nifty spot is expected to be

Bullish above 8860 with resistance at 8930, 9000, 9050 and 9130

Bearish below 8810 with Supports at 8735, 8660, 8615, 8540.

Short term trend for Nifty is presently bullish and would continue to remain bullish as long as it holds above 8775 (on close basis).

Breakout level for the week is 8945,  and break down level for the week is 8760. 

Advice for Traders ::

Nifty consolidated at higher level and cautious optimism prevails in the market. There would be derivative expiry on the Thursday and a new series would commence from Friday. Nifty can be expected to be bullish as long as it holds 8775 (on close basis)., Further Scrip specific movement can be expected due to derivative expiry. Optimism can be expected till the Budget and market would hold if the expectations are met in the budget, failing which sector wise correction could set in.